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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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Anything related to bitcoin, crypto, blockchain

pat9000

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I keep seeing stimulus check type stuff such as the child tax credit which a lot of people will support.

Universal Basic Income seems almost acceptable in the U.S. Could it be ushered in and garnered by crypto? CTC (child tax credit coin) issued by the govt. that's tax exempt and can only be used at grocery stores and monitored on the block chain by a team of CTC Analysts. Haha
 
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Antifragile

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I really don't know how much upside we have from here. Most of the gains have been made if you think about the fact that some major alts like matic have gone 100x since 2020.

We need a lot of money coming in to reach 100k for bitcoin. It's possible, but we would need big institutions.

What do you think?

I wish I knew...

From what I am reading, it looks like there are still many regulatory challenges. If the demand is there but can't be met because of SEC, who knows? My thinking is like this, rules:
#1 - survive the downs (never leverage, be prepared to be wrong!)
#2 - most of the "crypto" portfolio into BTC/ETH because of market dominance
#3 - DYOR for anything L1, L2 Alts, DeDi, DAOs and only when you feel like you get the big value prop, invest. Otherwise be on guard for FOMO.

And have fun with the little stuff, like NFTs, chat with people in the space, learn ...


edit: anecdotally, I see more of my normie friends use their tax sheltered (Canadian thing - RRSPs) to invest in Bitcoin ETFs. One took his entire stock portfolio, liquidated and moved to BTC. I don't have that kind of conviction or balls, but it's interesting to see.
 
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LPPC

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LPPC

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I wish I knew...

From what I am reading, it looks like there are still many regulatory challenges. If the demand is there but can't be met because of SEC, who knows? My thinking is like this, rules:
#1 - survive the downs (never leverage, be prepared to be wrong!)
#2 - most of the "crypto" portfolio into BTC/ETH because of market dominance
#3 - DYOR for anything L1, L2 Alts, DeDi, DAOs and only when you feel like you get the big value prop, invest. Otherwise be on guard for FOMO.

And have fun with the little stuff, like NFTs, chat with people in the space, learn ...


edit: anecdotally, I see more of my normie friends use their tax sheltered (Canadian thing - RRSPs) to invest in Bitcoin ETFs. One took his entire stock portfolio, liquidated and moved to BTC. I don't have that kind of conviction or balls, but it's interesting to see.
I'm just more afraid of the macro economy. It's ridiculous that BTC is not being treated as an inflation hedge if we look at how the market reacts to the FED's announcements.

Is it this time different and we won't see a big crash? Is 40k the bottom for the coming years? Very hard to guess.
 

Antifragile

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I'm just more afraid of the macro economy. It's ridiculous that BTC is not being treated as an inflation hedge if we look at how the market reacts to the FED's announcements.

Is it this time different and we won't see a big crash? Is 40k the bottom for the coming years? Very hard to guess.
No one knows. And anyone telling you otherwise is lying or stupid.

That’s why prepare to be wrong. Can you be wrong and HODL for 3 years if you had to? That’s how I make my decisions.
 

Codon

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AnNvr

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I really don't know how much upside we have from here. Most of the gains have been made if you think about the fact that some major alts like matic have gone 100x since 2020.

We need a lot of money coming in to reach 100k for bitcoin. It's possible, but we would need big institutions.

What do you think?
Agree.

Yes, it's a store value and it'll grow overtime but the general opinion seems leaving behind a key factor.
BTC is an old tech, with no real utility and high power consumption. Slow and expensive in transactions compared to new digital assets already tested by major banks. At the end of the run, utility and adoption by major institution will be the game changer for few new digital assets, especially the ones approved by ISO Technical Committee.

Also, it's already gone up 65535.07% since its all time low 9 years ago. Surely it'll go up again, but having a push up to 100k anytime soon it's unrealistic, technically talking.
 

pat9000

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To me, the best feature of Crypto over our current banking system is the 24/7 availability.

Banks only work 8 hours a day Mon-Fri and are off for Holidays. This makes it difficult to get some transactions completed properly.

Crypto gives the luxury of making transactions 24/7 and that comes in handy when in a bind.

Hopefully this new wave of innovation makes companies react. Similarly to how RobinHood made waves by cutting out trading commissions.
 

MoneyDoc

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To me, the best feature of Crypto over our current banking system is the 24/7 availability.

Banks only work 8 hours a day Mon-Fri and are off for Holidays. This makes it difficult to get some transactions completed properly.

Crypto gives the luxury of making transactions 24/7 and that comes in handy when in a bind.

Hopefully this new wave of innovation makes companies react. Similarly to how RobinHood made waves by cutting out trading commissions.
Keep in mind, a CBDC eliminates this issue...

Sometimes we have to be careful what we wish for ;)

I'll never forget what Powell said last year (I hope he doesn't hold this view anymore): "If we have a CBDC, there is no need for cryptocurrencies".
 
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MitchC

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Keep in mind, a CBDC eliminates this issue...

Sometimes we have to be careful what we wish for ;)

I'll never forget what Powell said last year (I hope he doesn't hold this view anymore): "If we have a CBDC, there is no need for cryptocurrencies".
Exactly right.

We are basically building our own prison between this and the metaverse.
 

EVMaso

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What will happen when more do this ? El Salvador was just the beginning





Don't forget our friends in Tonga!

 
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AnNvr

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Keep in mind, a CBDC eliminates this issue...

Sometimes we have to be careful what we wish for ;)

I'll never forget what Powell said last year (I hope he doesn't hold this view anymore): "If we have a CBDC, there is no need for cryptocurrencies".
ECB President Christine Lagarde already announced in the ecb blog they are working on design a CBDC for Europe by 2025.

It's happening, regardless what we do on the market. My doubt is if we'll be able to have a dual dimension made out of CBDC baked by the central banks and regulated by governments, and DeFi tools to detach our finances from banks and institution. What's your opinion?
 

MTF

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What’s the incentive for El S and Tonga to do this?

Safety (as a reserve currency), status (as a forward-thinking place), possibly a way for the country to get richer and rely on a superior store of value. They know their currencies suck and people don't trust them so BTC may actually help the economy grow.
 
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Matt Sun

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This argument that bitcoin is old and uses too much energy really is very weak. Since bitcoin wasn't created to be better than altcoins but to be better than our current system that is much more energy costly since it destroys lifes and businesses through inflation and currency debasement. I was watching a video of Jordan Peterson and he sum it up in a very nice way, he said that you have to adjust bitcoin's consumption of energy with the efficiency that embracing bitcoin brings to an economic system. This extra efficiency makes the energy argument a no brainer. With btc you have no stealing via inflation and also you don't have to go around invading Irak or Libia when people sell oil accepting the wrong token. It's a neutral means of exchange that even enemies can use. In the current system USA can sanction Russia or whoever so conflicts are kind of inherent when the means of exchange is not neutral.

It's interesting to see what will happen to El Salvador or other places that embrace bitcoin, according to this logic their economies should flourish in the coming years.



I'm sort of bitcoin maxi since I like altcoins to make money but it's still not clear that they are really decentralized since many depend on amazon web services, or have had transactions reversed like ethereum with the famous DAO hack. Or have CEOs in Switzerland while bitcoin has no CEO.
 

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Curious what this will lead to. Kind of mind boggling for me at this point to consider the implications. Apparently, in El Salvador, things don’t run as smooth yet as it says on the cover, but thats probably naive to assume
 

Ing

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I read, that Iran plans to make payments per BTC legal. Don’t remember, where, but was the last 3 days.
But I thought, Iran is one of the biggest miner states. I don’t get that
 
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Fox

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Do you think people are more/less likely to pay for something with crypto when prices are high/low?

Is there any data out there on when people most use crypto for transactions? (rather than trading/storing money)
 

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I don't think this mini bear market is over just yet. I don't think it will be as long as in 2018, but I can see this slow bleed continuing into at least spring.
 

Antifragile

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I don't think this mini bear market is over just yet. I don't think it will be as long as in 2018, but I can see this slow bleed continuing into at least spring.

I keep hearing the same thing in real estate as in crypto. Maybe it's helpful to some of you. The saying goes "It's not about timing the market, it's about time in the market".

Survive the bear market and you'll be happy. Assuming we are firmly in a bear market now. Which is not clear and will not be until after it's over. Economists have called correctly the last 8 out of 3 recessions. :)
 

TinyTim

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I keep hearing the same thing in real estate as in crypto. Maybe it's helpful to some of you. The saying goes "It's not about timing the market, it's about time in the market".

Survive the bear market and you'll be happy. Assuming we are firmly in a bear market now. Which is not clear and will not be until after it's over. Economists have called correctly the last 8 out of 3 recessions. :)
Hey, just making a prediction and letting people know my current thoughts, as I've been bearish since around 60k. Not saying people should sell their holdings here or anything.

In regards to the "time in the market" quote - well, it works for many people, especially during bull runs, but it depends on many factors, including the specific coin and what the holder needs. The "just hodl" mentality won't work for everyone and every asset. Staying in a shaky market after your (not you Antifragile) shitcoin has done 400x may not be the best tactic.
 

pat9000

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The fact that BTC dominance is still below 40% proves to me that people still expect alt coins to rally. There isn't a mass consolidation into BTC like previous bear markets. Then again, past performance doesn't indicate future results.
 
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Mainstream7

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