Any undervalued stocks you recommend?

[otek]

I have no horse in that race, so I could give a shit if Tesla later owns the world on mars or not. But I’ve been thinking why some people still believe so hard in it?
@otek came up with so much hopeum, everything must go right for his investment to make a dollar. Yet any one thing goes wrong and poof, like the dot com, like the 2008 and countless others. Elon isn’t a god. Just another dude that’s done a few great things in business.
So I wonder again, why do some people still follow this type of investment.

I think I got it.

"Motivated reasoning is the biased process we use to defend a position, ideology, or belief that we hold with emotional investment. Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies. We want them to win. We want to defend them. And other information or ideas are the enemy, and we want to shoot them down. —Julia Galef"

"Motivated reasoning is triggered by what psychologists call cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance theory was first proposed by Leon Festinger in 1957. He suggested that psychological discomfort results when we are presented with two pieces of information that conflict with each other." (Steven Novella, The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe)

once you’ve invested in Tesla a lot of money, it’s darn near impossible to reconcile that cognitive dissonance.

Again, I couldn’t care less about Tesla even if I tried. But from where I sit, the math on Tesla is some of the worst I’ve ever seen.

We will see in 10 years time. Just see the 50 % growth with good margins scenario more likely than low growth. I don't have anything against different Views. Maybe Tesla would be a good short. However this side does not look as good from the probability standpoint.

Luckily studied the company more closely back in the day, I could have been short the TESLA stock based on headlines and seemingly crazy valuation.

Of course, can still be wrong and am willing to change my mind if there's evidence contradicting my Expectations

 

[otek]

I just haven't seen you give an actual reason for any of your predictions.

There are no numbers to back up what you're saying. It's like crypto speculation: "Eh, maybe it will double next year." What?

Look at the fundamentals and financials of the company. It is losing money. Investors are just pouring more money into it. How can you accurately predict the future on that?

You know, sometimes things do skyrocket for no reason. Look at Doge coin. Look at beanie babies, pet rocks, fidget spinners. But did anybody use math and sophisticated analysis to predict that stuff? No...because the reasons behind it didn't make sense financially, it was all hype.

TSLA has good products. The company is priced crazy high though. Even Elon has said so.

Tesla would need its own thread, if going to go through details of why I think the 50 percent growth numbers are likely. Don't want to turn this to Tesla bull case thread.

 

[biophase]

There are no numbers to back up what you're saying. It's like crypto speculation: "Eh, maybe it will double next year." What?

Or… you can just be ok knowing that things are changing and fundamentals actually don’t make sense any more.

I don’t really believe the stock market follows actual fundamentals or earnings anymore. So you have to decide what type of investor you want to be.

You could have not bought any Amazon or Tesla stock in its early days because they lost money every year. But would you be better off now?

You could have not bought any crypto three years ago because you didn’t understand it, or you didn’t believe in it. But would you be better off now?

Personally I like Tesla and Elon musk. So I bought Tesla. Personally I don’t understand any crypto. But other people smarter than me understand it so I bought some crypto.

The question is what kind of investor are you? Are you sticking to the old rules of the 90s? Or are you changing with the times?

 

[biophase]

So “this time is different”? Scariest four words in investing!
Yes you can still participate in Crypto, Amazon and ignore Tesla and make great returns.
Early 90s had a CRE induced recession. Right before Dot Com bubble everyone claimed real assets (like real estate) are dead and tech only!!! This time is different! Yada yada yada.

no thanks.

Edit: to clarify - I own some f-u money in Crypro knowing full well it’s a gamble. I like my odds. I’m not saying don’t invest in Tesla, I’m saying math seems bad. Gamble in whatever you want. Just don’t pretend like there is a logical great reasoning for buying Tesla stock right now.

I'm not saying this time it's different. I'm saying that things are changing. I just don't believe the stock market moves based on fundamentals any more.

I don't think there's a logical reason to buy TSLA right now. But I didn't think there was one at $800 or $600 or $400 either.

Also, how do you judge what a good investment is? What's the timeframe? If I buy TSLA today at $1100 and it goes to $2000 in 2023 and then drops to $500 in 2025 and then goes to $3000 in 2030. Was it a good investment for me or you? Doesn't it depend on the person and who sold when?

 

[DoingDeals]

Jim Cramer has been having a vendetta against Tesla for anyone still listening to him.

 

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[DoingDeals]

DO NOT visit WallStreetBets for advice ever at all.

 

[DoingDeals]

My business partner was getting 15% the past 2 years in the stock market portfolio & I've told her it's not going to keep happening.

 

[biophase]

The thread is about listing undervalued stocks. @biophase if you believe all stocks to be overvalued, its fine. Lately, I feel stock market in general to be ”expensive”.

I don't believe they are overvalued. I did not say that at all.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

I have certain criteria that I look for in real estate and to be honest, some are intangible. If I looked purely at the numbers, I wouldn't have purchased many of the homes I have. That's why I'm saying that just going by numbers in the stock market won't work in the future.

So in real estate,

Let's say that you value a home by its long term rental income potential. Let's say that a home that rents and nets $1000/mo is worth $200,000 based on your mathematical model.

Someone else who has 2 kids and loves the neighborhood and its school district is willing to pay $250,000 for the home and the comps in the neighborhood show this home is worth $250,000.

I come along and determines that by using this home as an Airbnb, that home can net $2000/mo. So by my Airbnb calc. model, the home is worth $400,000 because it returns X% to me.

So who is correct here? Well there are 3 different ways each person is evaluating the home's value.

The old "long term" rental calculation may not work anymore. The new way of calculating value may be using its Airbnb potential income. This is a brand new factor in evaluating a home's value that wasn't existing 5 years ago. The guy buying houses based on comps may not be pricing his home correctly either.

All I'm saying is that there are new factors that move the market now and that fundamentals are factored in less now than before.

If you look at what's a good PE ratio, I remember it used to be low like 10-15. Amazon's PE ratio was 250 in 2016. Google was between 25-30 which was considered really high in the 90s. The metrics need to change with the times.

Getting back to real estate, I'm going to factor in alot of other things like proximity to neighbors, distance from hiking trails, effect of global warming, unique architecture, etc... so when it comes to stocks like TSLA, I'm also going to factor in things like, who's the CEO, how is he on social media, do people like him, what do its customers say about the car, etc...

Well, I look at intangibles too. Nobody said to ignore the that. In fact, I believe everything should be analyzed from both sides of the brain, right and left, or qualitative and quantitative.

But the thing is, would you ever buy real estate without doing math first? Of course not! Yet that’s how a lot of people are “investing” in stocks and crypto today.

(by the way, the PE ratio tells you very little and the old, old, super old stock investors were more concerned with P/B or price to book value. Today they look at price versus free cash flow, or discounted cash flow, which is also a great tool for value and fundamental analysis)

 

[vgfdshjn]

GameStop…

Not just a meme stock.

They’ve massively ramped up eCommerce, increased product lines and about to announce an NFT project/marketplace.

Watch this space…

Yeah... I doubt it. The company has declining revenues and is still losing money - all the while downloads eat into their core business model. At the same time the company has a market cap of $16b. eCommerce is heavily bombarded through all sites now.

Back to the thread.
Companies that I currently find undervalued. Warning they are companies in either emerging markets or quite small. Gazprom, Kaspi.kz, Helios Towers, Georgia Capital, Trinseo, IDT Corp, Kazataprom, Paladin Energy, a lot of oil companies like oxy, meg, cve. Tobacco companies like Turning Point Brands, British American Tobacco and a weird, small, polish waste management company called Mo-Bruk

 

[DoingDeals]

Not necessarily undervalued the Rivian RIVN IPO is next week & GE is splitting into 3 units.

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

Dover Motorsports went up 60% today. I bought it a week ago after analyzing it through a value investing tool.

It was clearly undervalued because the jump today was due to a sale that priced it far higher than the stock price - that price was determined by professionals, not robinhood traders.

Fundamentals do matter, the problem is that there are lots of idiots - I mean amateurs - in the markets today.

 

[Antifragile]

I think this guy is onto something:

Big Short’s Michael Burry Closes Bets Against Ark, Tesla and Treasuries

(Bloomberg) -- Michael Burry may have ditched some of his biggest shorts -- at least for now.Most Read from BloombergAmazon Sued Over Crashes by Drivers Rushing to Make DeliveriesWhat Designers of Video Game Cities Understand About Real CitiesBiden Plan Funds New Bridges That Locals May Not...

finance.yahoo.com

And if he's right, the time when Tesla becomes an undervalued stock might come sooner than some people on this forum had anticipated.

 

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