Any undervalued stocks you recommend?

[100k]

Join reddit.

/investing

/wallstreetbets

 

[Kak]

Would say Tesla, with 10 year investing horizon. Seems overvalued now, but compunding works wonders.

Stocks don’t compound. The company either grows or doesn’t.

Tesla has more competition than ever right now. The only thing of Tesla I’d buy right now is a car.

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

If you really want to understand investing in stocks for value, you should read a book about it instead of taking random people's recommendations.

The Intelligent Investor is a good place to start. I read it a few years ago, and though a lot of it is probably not useful to you right now (preferred vs common stock etc), there are some key rules you will learn that will make a huge difference in the way you invest. The biggest lesson is investing vs. speculation.

Look at the amount of debt the company has (debt to equity ratio), look at return on equity, and train your brain to think in percentages and ratios, not numbers.

That's not the only book to read by the way, but it's a good start. Try some books.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

I like the idea of Beyond Meat (BYND) - but do your own research.

As someone who is quite familiar with the "fake meat" space I'd stay away.

I like the product roadmap and everything, but the space is getting incredibly crowded. BYND used to be the only game in town. Now it's one of many, literally a dozen choices now, including white label brands from grocers.

 

[Antifragile]

Stocks don’t compound. The company either grows or doesn’t.

Tesla has more competition than ever right now. The only thing of Tesla I’d buy right now is a car.

I agree, less the buying the car part.


too expensive for what you get IMO.

 

[Raven S]

As someone who is quite familiar with the "fake meat" space I'd stay away.

I like the product roadmap and everything, but the space is getting incredibly crowded. BYND used to be the only game in town. Now it's one of many, literally a dozen choices now, including white label brands from grocers.

Initially I really liked the idea of beoynd meat, and some of the other similar brands. Today though, I would simply not "buy into it" because I would probably not consider eating it myself. So what changed? Well, I happened to stumble over the book the plant paradox, and the simple idea, that plants too can be very detrimental to your health if you keep eating those with lectins not compatible with humans. And I somewhat doubt these wannabe meats is even close to be on the yes list when it comes to the lectins they contain. - lets google to check..(3 mins later)
--
Now, both of these burgers, Impossible & Beyond, have been tested and found to contain glyphosate — which is a deadly disruptor to our healthspan. Plus, the main ingredient of both burgers is lectin-rich (pea or soy)
--
It goes without saying that these burgers "need" to be able to sell the idea that they are a healthy alternative to meat. At least, I feel their very existence is pretty shaky the moment they cant.

 

[Antifragile]

You do base it on hype tho. Tesla's current market cap is higher than the whole automotive industry + Progressive + All State (Insurance) + Lyft + Uber + Dominion Energy. In the last few days Tesla's market cap increased by 2 times Ford+GM combined.
Meanwhile companies like Berkshire made more in profits than Tesla did in revenue. It reminds me of the dotcom bubble where everyone predicted that Cisco would basically own the world... They didn't and their stock is still not back at the level it was in 2000. Tread carefully. Also a 5x would mean a 5 trillion market cap.
Edit: I am not saying Tesla isn't a great company. It is, but just like Cisco the stock can detach itself from the underlying business.

I have no horse in that race, so I could give a shit if Tesla later owns the world on mars or not. But I’ve been thinking why some people still believe so hard in it?
@otek came up with so much hopeum, everything must go right for his investment to make a dollar. Yet any one thing goes wrong and poof, like the dot com, like the 2008 and countless others. Elon isn’t a god. Just another dude that’s done a few great things in business.
So I wonder again, why do some people still follow this type of investment.

I think I got it.

"Motivated reasoning is the biased process we use to defend a position, ideology, or belief that we hold with emotional investment. Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies. We want them to win. We want to defend them. And other information or ideas are the enemy, and we want to shoot them down. —Julia Galef"

"Motivated reasoning is triggered by what psychologists call cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance theory was first proposed by Leon Festinger in 1957. He suggested that psychological discomfort results when we are presented with two pieces of information that conflict with each other." (Steven Novella, The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe)

once you’ve invested in Tesla a lot of money, it’s darn near impossible to reconcile that cognitive dissonance.

Again, I couldn’t care less about Tesla even if I tried. But from where I sit, the math on Tesla is some of the worst I’ve ever seen.

 

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[AceVentures]

Exactly... How do you value a company that isn't making any money?

...I guess the same way you decide if Bitcoin is "undervalued" or not, lol

If you show revenue people will ask how much and it will never be enough. The company that was the 100xer or the 1000xer becomes the 2x dog.

But if you say you have NO revenue you can say you're PRE-REVENUE. You're a potential pure play.

 

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[otek]

Would say Tesla, with 10 year investing horizon. Seems overvalued now, but compunding works wonders.

 

[Kak]

I try to balance everything, so I have some portion in VOO, QQQ, then some in my individual selections, then some amount for options, etc...

But the more I read, the more my strategies change, and (hopefully) improve.

Sometimes the more I think, the worse I do. I wonder sometimes if I just decided to invest like an idiot if I’d do better.

Long shot calls on Tesla for tomorrow!

 

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[ZF Lee]

Join reddit.

/investing

/wallstreetbets

r/investing is OK, but r/WSB...nope unless pumping TSLA and SPY on 0 DTE calls is your thing (or watching some fool do puts on Apple )

The sad reality is almost no one beats the market.

Yeah, if they just let their money stay parked in stocks...without accounting for sector rotation, seasonals or cycles. I find doing stocks requires a more active presence...no longer can you go passive. That means actually taking the time to research more -- besides just leaving the task to a guru or mutual fund agent.

 

[Kak]

As someone who is quite familiar with the "fake meat" space I'd stay away.

I like the product roadmap and everything, but the space is getting incredibly crowded. BYND used to be the only game in town. Now it's one of many, literally a dozen choices now, including white label brands from grocers.

That, and the fact that this thread is titled “Undervalued Stocks” and BYND has no earnings.

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

What was the formula again.. lets see.. one part greed, mixed with 2/3 ignorance, sprinkled with some congnitive dissonanse for that pure to the moon experience?

"It's down!! Buy more and HODL"

"It's up!! Buy more and HODL"

Really scientific.

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

Amazon had crazy pe ratios whole time, like Tesla now. It's the growth rate of the business. For example 1.5^10 is 57x.
Tesla has managed that for now. In the future we will see. Of course the TAM caps it. Car, energy and transportation in General, is luckily huge market.

"Tesla's return on common equity for fiscal years ending December 2016 to 2020 averaged -19.7%. Tesla's operated at median return on common equity of -21.3% from fiscal years ending December 2016 to 2020. Looking back at the last five years, Tesla's return on common equity peaked in June 2021 at 12.4%"

 

[vgfdshjn]

Thanks for book recommendation. Have listened one of Marks books long time ago, but not that one.

In General I think its good advice to stay away from hyped up growth stocks. If you Invest in them you better have good reason to. Because often times the hype creates valuation that already prices in a lot. And there are risks.
And there's very few companies that are truly extraordinary, not just in powerpoint but in reality.

However, I believe based on my research, that Tesla is one of those cases where reality actually is as good as hype or even better than that from investment perspective. I don't base this on hope.

But you must do your own due diligence. If you don't, then its often hope and feelings that drive your decisions.

You do base it on hype tho. Tesla's current market cap is higher than the whole automotive industry + Progressive + All State (Insurance) + Lyft + Uber + Dominion Energy. In the last few days Tesla's market cap increased by 2 times Ford+GM combined.
Meanwhile companies like Berkshire made more in profits than Tesla did in revenue. It reminds me of the dotcom bubble where everyone predicted that Cisco would basically own the world... They didn't and their stock is still not back at the level it was in 2000. Tread carefully. Also a 5x would mean a 5 trillion market cap.
Edit: I am not saying Tesla isn't a great company. It is, but just like Cisco the stock can detach itself from the underlying business.

 

[ljean]

I wish I had that problem. I was kind of chicken about it - it met all of my criteria but I definitely did not open a large enough position.

The big winners are never large enough.

 

[mariannagalvan]

Hi ! I am looking for undervalued stocks in the market to buy, I am doing analysis of some that I find interesting, but I would like to get feedback and have more options to investigate.
I'm using a translator in case something is misspelled hehe!

 

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[deadevil]

I like the idea of Beyond Meat (BYND) - but do your own research.

 

[AusTex]

Hi ! I am looking for undervalued stocks in the market to buy, I am doing analysis of some that I find interesting, but I would like to get feedback and have more options to investigate.
I'm using a translator in case something is misspelled hehe!

Value index ETFs

 

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[Kak]

If you really want to understand investing in stocks for value, you should read a book about it instead of taking random people's recommendations.

The Intelligent Investor is a good place to start. I read it a few years ago, and though a lot of it is probably not useful to you right now (preferred vs common stock etc), there are some key rules you will learn that will make a huge difference in the way you invest. The biggest lesson is investing vs. speculation.

Look at the amount of debt the company has (debt to equity ratio), look at return on equity, and train your brain to think in percentages and ratios, not numbers.

That's not the only book to read by the way, but it's a good start. Try some books.

I second this. Get a good foundational understanding and build upon it.

The sad reality is almost no one beats the market. If you want to be lazy, and probably better than average… Just DCA a bunch of SPY over the next 50 years. You’ll certainly beat the Edward Jones chump with his hand in your pocket.

Thats easy, but takes more discipline than I have, so for better or worse I “make trades.”

We have the inflation wild card to consider as well.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

I second this. Get a good foundational understanding and build upon it.

The sad reality is almost no one beats the market. If you want to be lazy, and probably better than average… Just DCA a bunch of SPY over the next 50 years. You’ll certainly beat the Edward Jones chump with his hand in your pocket.

Thats easy, but takes more discipline than I have, so for better or worse I “make trades.”

We have the inflation wild card to consider as well.

I try to balance everything, so I have some portion in VOO, QQQ, then some in my individual selections, then some amount for options, etc...

But the more I read, the more my strategies change, and (hopefully) improve.

 

[100k]

r/investing is OK, but r/WSB...nope unless pumping TSLA and SPY on 0 DTE calls is your thing (or watching some fool do puts on Apple )


Yeah, if they just let their money stay parked in stocks...without accounting for sector rotation, seasonals or cycles. I find doing stocks requires a more active presence...no longer can you go passive. That means actually taking the time to research more -- besides just leaving the task to a guru or mutual fund agent.

Generally its a cesspool full of degenerates and addicts, but you'll find some gems in the "DD" section:

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

 

[avafab]

If you really want to understand investing in stocks for value, you should read a book about it instead of taking random people's recommendations.

The Intelligent Investor is a good place to start. I read it a few years ago, and though a lot of it is probably not useful to you right now (preferred vs common stock etc), there are some key rules you will learn that will make a huge difference in the way you invest. The biggest lesson is investing vs. speculation.

Look at the amount of debt the company has (debt to equity ratio), look at return on equity, and train your brain to think in percentages and ratios, not numbers.

That's not the only book to read by the way, but it's a good start. Try some books.

@thechosen1 is absolutely right. If you want to get serious, you should study each company and understand whether they have potential to grow or not. You need to look at their statement and be able to understand how strong they are, how many debts they have, and so on..

This requires time and it is a job by its own. It is basically what financial analysts do.

If you are lazy, there is a work around. You could pay a financial and investing company to tell you which stocks to buy. That's a shortcut but you need to trust them and experiment by yourself.

It's is a risky business but still extremely rewarding if you know what you are doing.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

That, and the fact that this thread is titled “Undervalued Stocks” and BYND has no earnings.

Exactly... How do you value a company that isn't making any money?

...I guess the same way you decide if Bitcoin is "undervalued" or not, lol

 

[Kak]

...I guess the same way you decide if Bitcoin is "undervalued" or not, lol

My BITO short play is up 20% today...

 

[otek]

I agree, less the buying the car part.


too expensive for what you get IMO.

Damn guys, don't you tease the Tesla investor

Am holding position of about 300k now in TSLA. Started first investing 7 years ago in Tesla. Switched from small Amazon bet to Tesla as I saw more potential. And still betting that Tesla will 5x or more in 10 years.

But had I - say - first started a Company, sold it and then invested to Tesla with bigger bet size, would be now much better. MJ's philosophy holds.

To tie back to topic. Great companies often look pricy. But if you have long term View and reason to believe that market does not Account for everything, the price might not be too pricy after all.

 

[Antifragile]

Damn guys, don't you tease the Tesla investor

Am holding position of about 300k now in TSLA. Started first investing 7 years ago in Tesla. Switched from small Amazon bet to Tesla as I saw more potential. And still betting that Tesla will 5x or more in 10 years.

But had I - say - first started a Company, sold it and then invested to Tesla with bigger bet size, would be now much better. MJ's philosophy holds.

To tie back to topic. Great companies often look pricy. But if you have long term View and reason to believe that market does not Account for everything, the price might not be too pricy after all.

What exactly gives you the confidence in Tesla? The low P/E ratio?

 

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[otek]

Wait a minute, so you are hoping that one day Tesla has a 30x PE ratio? And you fully expect it to stay above 100x and still it’s a good investment?

Oh my… no wonder I cannot understand the latest stock market pricing. People have gone mad.

In 2023 calculated roughly that pe would maybe be around 56.8. I think it is unwise to assume Tesla stops at 2023. Net income probably does not stop growing.

Just to give further light why I Don't think its insane to Invest on high PE name provided that its growing 50 % per year and growing net income even more.

In 2025 I believe Net income has again tripled, from 2023 (operating leverage makes it so that if revenue doubles net income grows even more). In 2025, 56.8/3 would be 18.9 PE.
In 2028 I believe Net income could have tripled again. And in 2030 again maybe say doubles.

In 2030 PE would be with 900 mrd market cap 18.9/3/2 = 3.15.
So if Tesla's revenue grows 50 percent for 10 years and net income more than that due to operating leverage the stock would have PE of about 3.15 in 2030.

PE however probably is not 3. At least 30 for Tesla in my opinion due to new TAM expansions, new products etc. So stock would probably 10x.
However there might be hiccups on the path of growth, so Am givin more conservative 5x estimation for Tesla's stocks upside potential .

PE is good number in stable markets and mature companies. With best growth stocks (amazon, Tesla) it however is misleading.

 

[Antifragile]

@otek
Appreciate you engaging in this conversation and understand where you are coming from. I feel like I've been there (I am clearly older than you).

You are seeking validation of a string of cumulative events. Telsa must grow 50% every year. Tesla's profits must remain the same or better. Tesla must have new products etc. With that your prediction of 10x seems to make sense. Your "conservative" view of 50% off this prediction is a problem we've seen before. When? A long, long time ago... in financial markets area it's so long that no one remembers that time.

In early 2008, the five-year default rate for AAA-rated collateralized debt obligations (CDO) was 0.12 per cent. The Standard & Poor (S&P) rating meant the predicted default occurred only 0.12 per cent of the time, but in late 2008 the default rate came closer to 28 per cent.

This gap between forecast and reality was a gigantic prediction error. In fact, the mortgage-backed securities were extremely sensitive to changes in economic conditions and their defaults triggered the global financial crisis.
If S&P had assumed that CDOs were correlated, the impact on the financial industry would not have been as profound and maybe there would have been no global financial crisis of 2007-2008.

In retrospect, the assumption that defaults on some housing would not trigger other defaults seems obviously wrong. If the analysts at S&P had prepared to be wrong on this one assumption, their range of probable default rates would then have been too big to ignore.

Wrong predictions aren’t new and as the old joke goes, economists called nine out of the last six recessions correctly. So why is it so difficult to make predictions?

And that's my problem with current valuation of Tesla - EVERYTHING has to go right for you to make a tiny profit. The asymmetry of risk/reward probability is in the wrong direction, against you.

Hope you find this helpful. And remember, no one knows the future - even lotto is won by someone some of the time.

P.S. If you plan on staying in the investment space, I recommend Howard Marks' "Mastering the Market Cycle" book.

 

[otek]

@otek
Appreciate you engaging in this conversation and understand where you are coming from. I feel like I've been there (I am clearly older than you).

You are seeking validation of a string of cumulative events. Telsa must grow 50% every year. Tesla's profits must remain the same or better. Tesla must have new products etc. With that your prediction of 10x seems to make sense. Your "conservative" view of 50% off this prediction is a problem we've seen before. When? A long, long time ago... in financial markets area it's so long that no one remembers that time.

In early 2008, the five-year default rate for AAA-rated collateralized debt obligations (CDO) was 0.12 per cent. The Standard & Poor (S&P) rating meant the predicted default occurred only 0.12 per cent of the time, but in late 2008 the default rate came closer to 28 per cent.

This gap between forecast and reality was a gigantic prediction error. In fact, the mortgage-backed securities were extremely sensitive to changes in economic conditions and their defaults triggered the global financial crisis.
If S&P had assumed that CDOs were correlated, the impact on the financial industry would not have been as profound and maybe there would have been no global financial crisis of 2007-2008.

In retrospect, the assumption that defaults on some housing would not trigger other defaults seems obviously wrong. If the analysts at S&P had prepared to be wrong on this one assumption, their range of probable default rates would then have been too big to ignore.

Wrong predictions aren’t new and as the old joke goes, economists called nine out of the last six recessions correctly. So why is it so difficult to make predictions?

And that's my problem with current valuation of Tesla - EVERYTHING has to go right for you to make a tiny profit. The asymmetry of risk/reward probability is in the wrong direction, against you.

Hope you find this helpful. And remember, no one knows the future - even lotto is won by someone some of the time.

P.S. If you plan on staying in the investment space, I recommend Howard Marks' "Mastering the Market Cycle" book.

Thanks for book recommendation. Have listened one of Marks books long time ago, but not that one.

In General I think its good advice to stay away from hyped up growth stocks. If you Invest in them you better have good reason to. Because often times the hype creates valuation that already prices in a lot. And there are risks.
And there's very few companies that are truly extraordinary, not just in powerpoint but in reality.

However, I believe based on my research, that Tesla is one of those cases where reality actually is as good as hype or even better than that from investment perspective. I don't base this on hope.

But you must do your own due diligence. If you don't, then its often hope and feelings that drive your decisions.

 

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