A "Forever Recession"?

[jazzfreak11]

I was reading a free manifesto by Corbett Barr (a blogger/traffic consultant who is one of those minimalist-ish location-independent lifestyle guys) and he said this:

"We’ve created our own “forever recession†(as Seth Godin calls it) and
now we wonder when the jobs will come back. The problem is though, the
jobs aren’t coming back. Ever. The rules have changed for good."

And the solution he's advocating is a "DIY career", being a blogger or entrepreneur.

Here's Seth Godin's original blog post about the "forever recession":

Seth's Blog: The forever recession

Thus, middle class jobs that existed because companies had no choice are now gone... The networked revolution is creating huge profits, significant opportunities and a lot of change. What it's not doing is providing millions of brain-dead, corner office, follow-the-manual middle class jobs. And it's not going to.

Fast, smart and flexible are embraced by the network. Linchpin behavior. People and companies we can't live without (because if I can live without you, I'm sure going to try if the alternative is to save money).

The sad irony is that everything we do to prop up the last economy (more obedience, more compliance, cheaper yet average) gets in the way of profiting from this one.

Possible? I don't know, I'm no economist or expert, but looking at the world around me and who's doing well and who's optimistic at the moment, this seems pretty darn plausible. And it only reinforces what we're doing here at the Fastlane

 

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[Icy]

I wouldn't call it a "forever recession" but no doubt it is going to linger until people start changing their mindsets.

The days of needing people to do simple mindless, and repeatable processes are gone. We have computers\machines that are quickly taking those jobs away.

Cashiers? Add RFIDs to items in stores, and have to walk over a panel. I remember a few people here mentioning there in stores.

Painters to reproduce works of art? Machines can reproduce it.

And on, and on.

Certainly there is still a while to go before the jobs are replaced, but to ignore this fact is idiocy.

The world doesn't need people to be part of a process of make x amount of a product. They need to be the people creating the design, the prototype, etc of the product not the mass production of it.

School still puts us into this mindset though, of learn and then other people will tell you what to do. You just need the knowledge to create what they want. This isn't the game anymore. You need to be able to create, and not follow directions.

If something has directions on "how to" be assured a person is going to be replaced, by a machine. This is why you cannot afford to do a job that already has the map laid out for you.

 

[Russ H]

I think it's wishful thinking on his part.

But I LIKE it!

One of the things this recession did was immediately remove the least-productive workers out of the economy.

Unfortunately, many have been perfectly happy to collect unemployment for over a year, and complain about how bad they have it.

But the bottom line effect on our economy is actually excellent, from a productivity standpoint: The productivity of US workers has increased since the recession began.

And one of the things I *do* remember from my Econ class is increasing worker productivity is a FANTASTIC way to get out of a recession.

I realize we're gonna have to deal w/the less productive members sooner or later. And I don't have any solutions for this.

How about it fastlaners-- how can we put the cousin Eddie's of the world back to work as highly productive citizens? (I'm serious).

Any ideas? Someone who comes up w/this answer could make an awful lot of money.

-Russ H.

 

[FDJustin]

Goverment mandated personality reassignment... You know, therapy, NLP, etc. To make them productive.

Since these are the least productive people, there should be a pretty big lack or revolts for it, right?

 

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[Russ H]

Goverment mandated personality reassignment... You know, therapy, NLP, etc. To make them productive.

Since these are the least productive people, there should be a pretty big lack or revolts for it, right?

Why not something like an immersive video game that actually produces useful products? Gamers would enjoy playing (perhaps for high score, or food, or even sex?), and would be compensated/rewarded only if they won/produced.

Hmm . . . this way, if they didn't work at it hard enough, they'd starve.

-Russ H.

 

[FDJustin]

Sounds like a better reward system than what's already in place. But I'm having a very hard time of thinking how video game mechanics can be applied to producing... And what would actually be produced in the first place. Remember, much of the problem "problem" is that technology is outpacing the need of human labor. If what your saying isn't an euphemism for "Get them working and label it as an 'ultra real experience', what could be done with game mechanics that can't be done with machines?

Actually, I suppose if you use mechanics alone and seperate the game, then it's entirely possible. This is exactly the kind of stuff that gameful is for

 

[Russ H]

Sounds like a better reward system than what's already in place. But I'm having a very hard time of thinking how video game mechanics can be applied to producing... And what would actually be produced in the first place. Remember, much of the problem "problem" is that technology is outpacing the need of human labor. If what your saying isn't an euphemism for "Get them working and label it as an 'ultra real experience', what could be done with game mechanics that can't be done with machines?

Actually, I suppose if you use mechanics alone and seperate the game, then it's entirely possible. This is exactly the kind of stuff that gameful is for

Ever read "Ender's Game"?

-Russ H.

 

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[FDJustin]

No, was it a quote?

About my original post, I'm indirectly serious. I don't think there's any other way to get the greater majority of unproductive people to become productive, without either direct, or borderline force.

And that always has some kind of backlash. Even so, the more subtle and gradual the implimentation, the less people will get uppity and fight against it.

So what do people use to become unproductive? You had a good point with the games. There's also television. Both these things can be influential to a degree.

 

[GlobalWealth]

What you all seem to be discussing is governmental policy change and this topic can easily get sidetracked here.

Just like managing a business, instead of micromanaging the worker, you want to create the proper incentive in order to create an environment where they want to do what is most productive.

We have had generations of policies where the bad behavior is rewarded and the productive behavior is penalized.

In order to kickstart the economic engine we need massive political change to create the proper incentives for productivity.

Until that time comes, we are destined to more of the same. As the saying goes, 'the definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results'.

 

[Russ H]

What you all seem to be discussing is governmental policy change and this topic can easily get sidetracked here.

Just like managing a business, instead of micromanaging the worker, you want to create the proper incentive in order to create an environment where they want to do what is most productive.

We have had generations of policies where the bad behavior is rewarded and the productive behavior is penalized.

In order to kickstart the economic engine we need massive political change to create the proper incentives for productivity.

Until that time comes, we are destined to more of the same. As the saying goes, 'the definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results'.

Dood!

You totally misread me.

While my solutions may have sounded a bit radical, they were (and are) intended for PRIVATE BUSINESS.

(why I said it had HUGE fastlane potential).

If private business can coerce/convince lazy butts to do something that will give private business productivity-- but sugar-coat it as the world's best video game, then I think we'd get somewhere.

The beauty of making it private business funded is it would HAVE to be profitable to work.

And (perhaps most important), its long term success would be predictable/bankable (ie, investors would want in)-- only if it were in the private sector.

I can't see this working as a govt program.

As we will soon see, all the govt programs in the world don't mean diddly when the power shifts.

Power shifts. Rules change. Programs go bye-bye.

We're getting another power shift next month in DC-- so I'd expect the next few months most of the rich are going to be looking to see what the "new rules" are, as we've discussed before.

-Russ H.

 

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[Russ H]

PS I truly am serious here. Think of this as the 21st century equivalent of assembly line workers.

Putting the bolt on the motor didn't take a lot of smarts, but it paid well, when done as part of an assembly line.

That was the genius of Henry Ford-- making something super-simple that paid well.

We need to find a comparable solution/job for the bunch of ne'er do wells who sit at home collecting unemployment, happy to watch "Shark Week" for the 100th time (the movie "Stepbrothers" comes to mind).

[video=youtube;aMnnI1DcMfk]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMnnI1DcMfk[/video]

-Russ H.

 

[biophase]

When I was in Africa last year I watched their DOT (department of transportation) workers cut grass along the shoulders of the highway. The DOT consisted of a bunch of guys walking in a straight line with a stick and a knife attached the to end of it, walking across the lawn swinging the stick back and forth. It was a tedious job and probably took them a whole day to cut a mile of grass along the highway.

The government could buy some big lawn mowing machines that could be operated by one guy and cut 30 miles in a day. If they did that, it would replace the 15+ workers and do their work in a day, what used to take them a month.

If this happened, their jobs would never come back and you'd have 14 people they were working on that highway unemployed. Multiply this by the number of highways and you instantly created a loss of hundreds or thousands of jobs with a simple machine.

It made me wonder if technological advances would be a good thing here. I personally don't think many of the jobs here are coming back.

 

[MikeC]

Why not something like an immersive video game that actually produces useful products? Gamers would enjoy playing (perhaps for high score, or food, or even sex?), and would be compensated/rewarded only if they won/produced.

Hmm . . . this way, if they didn't work at it hard enough, they'd starve.

-Russ H.

I've been thinking about this idea for AGES. Especially with the new video game 'achievements.' I can't believe the pointless boring grinds that people do for hours just to have a title pop up on their screen! Figure out a way to get some value out of this, and you've got yourself some serious fastlane.

I'm actually trying an achievement system with an article website I'm making. The problem is that as writers get better, they stop writing the lower quality articles that are in high demand. I hope achievements will give them the motivation to do the low quality items and maybe get a nice picture.

 

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[valuegiver]

YouTube - Daniel Pink on the surprising science of motivation

Sounds like a better reward system than what's already in place. But I'm having a very hard time of thinking how video game mechanics can be applied to producing... And what would actually be produced in the first place. Remember, much of the problem "problem" is that technology is outpacing the need of human labor. If what your saying isn't an euphemism for "Get them working and label it as an 'ultra real experience', what could be done with game mechanics that can't be done with machines?

Actually, I suppose if you use mechanics alone and seperate the game, then it's entirely possible. This is exactly the kind of stuff that gameful is for

 

[FDJustin]

What's your point, Valuegiver? Even if the kind of work you're having these people do is 'creative' work, you can always use the rewards based on our standard model... Ready? Time == Reward.

 

[FDJustin]

I'm actually trying an achievement system with an article website I'm making. The problem is that as writers get better, they stop writing the lower quality articles that are in high demand. I hope achievements will give them the motivation to do the low quality items and maybe get a nice picture.

Is it a lack of quality that's in demand? How did you come to this conclusion? What defines low quality? Is there a way to gain high quality articles, and present them in a nature that follows the same sort of structure that low quality articles have?

Basically... Is it structure, or is it content?

 

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[camski]

What you all seem to be discussing is governmental policy change and this topic can easily get sidetracked here.

Just like managing a business, instead of micromanaging the worker, you want to create the proper incentive in order to create an environment where they want to do what is most productive.

We have had generations of policies where the bad behavior is rewarded and the productive behavior is penalized.

In order to kickstart the economic engine we need massive political change to create the proper incentives for productivity.

Until that time comes, we are destined to more of the same. As the saying goes, 'the definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results'.

This hopefully doesnt cross the line but if it does, mods please delete. While I agree with GW in that a governmental policy change is in order, but there needs to be more than that. You will never motivate people to go to work while they are compensated for not working. When public assistance is ended and people are forced to fend for themslves, they will. Survival is the best motivator there is. The problem is that in America, poverty is too comfortable.

Both government and charities have been too easy about handing out without demanding something in return for those handouts. I wonder how many people would accept help from the Salvation army if they had to volunteer their time for those handouts? How many people would look for employment more seriously if they had to physically report to the unemployment office every day to report on their job seeking efforts? I wonder how many people would go to the churches for assistance if they were required to attend services to receive that assistance?

By not making people accountable we have done them a disservice. By giving them something in return for nothing we have created the Uncle Eddies. I agree that we would all prefer to use the carrot instead of the stick but if the donkey is full from all the free carrots another one wont bring the desired behavior. Sometimes the stick or deprivation of the carrots until they are hungry again is the answer.

 

[valuegiver]

Rewards can actually lower down performance of 'creative' workers according to Daniel Pink.

What's your point, Valuegiver? Even if the kind of work you're having these people do is 'creative' work, you can always use the rewards based on our standard model... Ready? Time == Reward.

 

[Icy]

It made me wonder if technological advances would be a good thing here. I personally don't think many of the jobs here are coming back.

How couldn't it be? In the end it will result in a lot more people creating, and pushing boundaries of tech, art, etc.

Certainly in the short term it'd be horrific. Tons of people will lose jobs, but if they can change their mindset they atleast, finally, get out of the "soul sucking" jobs anyway.

Bad in the short term. Great in the long term.

 

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[FDJustin]

Yes... But why? Because they create focus, right? This means rewards create motivation for the creatives just as it does for the mechanical workers. The problem is, it creates motivation that takes away exploration, and places it on finishing. What this tells me, at least, is that money incentives are VERY powerful... To the point where in these cases they are a distraction.

However, you can't offer no reward. No reward is no incentive. So what, then, do you use to pay the creatives? For now, I can only think to pay them for their time. There's also prestige, I suppose. But I wouldn't work towards solutions for someone else's profit for mere credit.


Camski, I'd like to see what demolishing those programs does to the crime rates. Short and long term.


And Biophase... We've eventually heading towards an automated future. Sooner or later those 14 men * number of highways will be replaced. As will the people that sit there putting stickers on loafs of bread. It just means the future holds a different style of income for all the individuals freed of bitch work.

 

[valuegiver]

I think a good reward system should be somewhat like sharing of ownership stake rather than money.

Yes... But why? Because they create focus, right? This means rewards create motivation for the creatives just as it does for the mechanical workers. The problem is, it creates motivation that takes away exploration, and places it on finishing. What this tells me, at least, is that money incentives are VERY powerful... To the point where in these cases they are a distraction.

However, you can't offer no reward. No reward is no incentive. So what, then, do you use to pay the creatives? For now, I can only think to pay them for their time. There's also prestige, I suppose. But I wouldn't work towards solutions for someone else's profit for mere credit.

 

[FDJustin]

Usually giving up ownership is reserved for people who do a large part of your business, (Like program everything) or fund it... I thought we were talking about an employee standpoint, where it would be impractical to give up ownership.

<off topic>Giving up ownership is a last resort, in my opinion. Even when handing over large aspects of your business.

Well, that's not entirely true. If giving up ownership means getting the project done yesterday, I'd gladly do it for periphory ideas. Things that "Would be nice to get to someday, maybe." are perfect candidates for having other people fund, build, and operate and leave you with minimum ownership.

That's probably how I'll treat "Project B" that's sitting on the backburner, once I've earned some "credibility" (I.E. Success and money) to get peoples interest.</off topic>

 

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[camski]

Camski, I'd like to see what demolishing those programs does to the crime rates. Short and long term.

I am not necesarily saying that all programs should just be eliminated. I am saying that someone who is able bodied shouldnt just receive assistance without being required to give something in exchange for that assistance. I believe in giving value for getting value.

My belief is that we rob people of their self worth by just giving them things. Once they have lost part or all of their self worth, pride is not far behind. Once they have no self worth or self pride they are less likely to be enticed by performance based rewards. They would gladly settle for less that requires little or no effort than to aspire for great rewards that require a lot of effort.

As far as the crime rate goes. there is right and there is wrong and doing the right thing should always be done regardless of the consequences. If doing the right thing would involve a much higher crime rate (not saying that it would) then it should still be done. My belief is we would be a much more productive country if were made to be more self reliant. Kind of the Shawshank choice "get busy living or get busy dying"

 

[FDJustin]

Hmm... Interesting view. By the way, I'm not sure how welfare works in the states, but here in Ontario at least, they do make you look for a job. They also pay you very, very little more than what you need to pay rent... But. I do agree the people on it should be doing something. Every city can be improved, and everyone on welfare can be put to work making it a better place.

With the right team leaders, it could be a rather dignified. (Hmm.. Deja-vu. Did we talk about this in another thread?)

 

[Guest3722A]

How I see it is there are alot of companies out there growing AND expanding. I see lists of them almost every single day. These 'lists' went from under 20 per day back in 2009 to easily around 200 per day today. Most of these companies have learned to maintain and grow with fewer employees but I think we're approaching a threshold of where employment will be necessary to maintain growth. 2011 may be moderate in employment growth but I'm siding with the school that says when everybody finally cries doom and gloom, it's time to buy, and to be honest here, Ithink we may have passed that point already.


U.S. Companies to Increase Hiring in 2011, Survey of CFOs Shows - Bloomberg

41 Percent Of Small/Medium-Sized Companies Hiring In 2011 | Glassdoor.com Blog

 

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[GlobalWealth]

Dood!

You totally misread me.

Russ,
My reply was not directed toward you, but just in response to the proposed question.

I agree there needs to be free market solutions to solving the employment crisis we are now in. But you cannot ignore govt incentives when it comes to hiring.

For example, we have lost about 2m jobs in the construction industry since '06. I highly doubt those will ever be recovered. Those jobs were created due to govt incentives that lead to speculation in housing.

Without those incentives, people and firms would have invested in other productive assets other than housing and we would likely not be in the midst of an employment crisis.

My point is, whether we like it or not, govt policy has a dramatic impact on business decisions we make. We don't live in a truly free market nor will we ever. (A truly free market would be complete anarchy, which will likely never happen).

If the policy incentives are there, the 'free market' will find solutions to solve the problems. I am a firm believer in seeking out the ineffciencies and capitalizing on them. In the absence of anarchy, this is the job of an entrepreneur and investor.

 

[Russ H]

Rewards can actually lower down performance of 'creative' workers according to Daniel Pink.

EXACTLY!

Creative and motivated workers do NOT perform as well w/a rewards system.

But as Daniel Pink says, when you take the tacks out of the box and offer rewards, the incentivized (= getting $$) group kicked the standard group's butts!

Who are we talking about here? The creative and motivated workers?

Naaaaah.

We're talking about the non-creative, non-motivated guys and girls who would rather sit at home at watch reality TV than actually LIVE LIFE.

ie, the unemployed.

Or, to put it better: The currently unemployable.

Because they have no motivation or creativity.

THAT is the group I'm talking about for video games.

Design a game that requires human response-- where human response is better/faster/more accurate than a machine-- BUT-- requires little creativity, or the need to get your butt off the couch.

I didn't say this was easy to do (it ain't-- this is why we don't have this already).

-Russ H.

PS Thanks for the TED link on this, valuegiver. It's a great vid for motivated entrepreneurs-- but I don't think it's applicable for the unemployed low-productivity layabouts we're discussing here.

 

[hakrjak]

There's a simple solution to get the cousin eddie's of the world back into the economy providing services, making money, and spending money.

The solution is to cut off their unemployment.

I guarentee you in the great Depression, you didn't have people on unemployment for 4 years.

If you want to give people incentive to get off their a$$ and shovel snow, mow lawns, wash windows, and hang christmas lights for cash -- you've got to give them a wakeup call that you can't earn $2k a month sitting on the couch anymore... It's time to either move in with your Mom & Dad, or get your butt back to work! Because it's a major recession, there may not be someone willing to pay you $4k a month to sit on your butt in an office and do nothing, I'm sorry!

Sounds harsh, but I see no other choice.

- Hakrjak

 

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[Russ H]

There's a simple solution to get the cousin eddie's of the world back into the economy providing services, making money, and spending money.

The solution is to cut off their unemployment.

I guarentee you in the great Depression, you didn't have people on unemployment for 4 years.

If you want to give people incentive to get off their a$$ and shovel snow, mow lawns, wash windows, and hang christmas lights for cash -- you've got to give them a wakeup call that you can't earn $2k a month sitting on the couch anymore... It's time to either move in with your Mom & Dad, or get your butt back to work! Because it's a major recession, there may not be someone willing to pay you $4k a month to sit on your butt in an office and do nothing, I'm sorry!

Sounds harsh, but I see no other choice.

It really comes down to this:

How to you motivate the unmotivated?

-Russ H.

 

[Runum]

I guarentee you in the great Depression, you didn't have people on unemployment for 4 years.
- Hakrjak

My late grandfather told me that during the depression he was part of a gov sponsored labor group. The feds paid $1 a day plus lunch for him to pick up a shovel and lean on it. They gov did not want them to do any work just act busy. Not sure how long it lasted.

I'm not sure how you can guarantee that no one was on unemployment for 4 years. Did they have a hard time limit on the service? I'm not picking just trying to learn.