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2008 Dow Jones Industrials

The Dow Jones Average at 2008 Year End

  • 15,000 or more

    Votes: 1 3.1%
  • 14,500

    Votes: 2 6.3%
  • 14,000

    Votes: 3 9.4%
  • 13,500

    Votes: 5 15.6%
  • 13,000

    Votes: 3 9.4%
  • 12,500

    Votes: 1 3.1%
  • 12,000

    Votes: 2 6.3%
  • 11,500

    Votes: 5 15.6%
  • 11,000

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 10,500 or less

    Votes: 10 31.3%

  • Total voters
    32
  • Poll closed .
  • Thread starter
  • Admin
  • #1

MJ DeMarco

Raving Lunatic
Staff member
Speedway Pass
FASTLANE INSIDER
LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR
Summit Attendee
Jul 23, 2007
28,054
93,418
3,751
Phoenix, AZ
Place your votes! Lets have your predictions where the DOW ends in 2008.

Currently it is at 12800.
 

shaunew

New Contributor
Dec 30, 2007
23
1
9
Seoul, South Korea
With the high unemployment in the US and with the sub prime loan I see the DOW closing below 11500 in 2008.
 

Rawr

Gold Contributor
Speedway Pass
Aug 12, 2007
1,801
1,661
454
south florida
<stupid
 

piranha526

Contributor
Aug 20, 2007
112
23
23
New Jersey
www.chrisperruna.com
MJ,
Sorry but I am the party pooper for this thead:
No vote for me because I have no idea, nor does anyone else (I know it's for fun but it's counterproductive when it comes to trading). And a guess of the Dow will help me in NO way with my actual trading. So, I guess:

Unknown (I am 100% right)!
 
  • Thread starter
  • Admin
  • #5

MJ DeMarco

Raving Lunatic
Staff member
Speedway Pass
FASTLANE INSIDER
LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR
Summit Attendee
Jul 23, 2007
28,054
93,418
3,751
Phoenix, AZ
MJ,
Sorry but I am the party pooper for this thead:
No vote for me because I have no idea, nor does anyone else (I know it's for fun but it's counterproductive when it comes to trading). And a guess of the Dow will help me in NO way with my actual trading. So, I guess:

Unknown (I am 100% right)!
Some trading strategies are based on market sentiment although I personally could care less what the results of this poll are (or any others) as it won't affect my trading. I'm simply curious to see what the market mindset is here ...
 
  • Thread starter
  • Admin
  • #6

MJ DeMarco

Raving Lunatic
Staff member
Speedway Pass
FASTLANE INSIDER
LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR
Summit Attendee
Jul 23, 2007
28,054
93,418
3,751
Phoenix, AZ
We are half way there ... and so far the wisdom of the crowds is correct. We are at 11,580 - I voted 11,500. Next stop 10,500?
 
  • Thread starter
  • Admin
  • #8

MJ DeMarco

Raving Lunatic
Staff member
Speedway Pass
FASTLANE INSIDER
LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR
Summit Attendee
Jul 23, 2007
28,054
93,418
3,751
Phoenix, AZ
Wow, thought I'd revive this poll ... the forum crowd has been right so far ... not so much me. I should add a few lower levels on the poll.
 

Rawr

Gold Contributor
Speedway Pass
Aug 12, 2007
1,801
1,661
454
south florida
I guessed 11500 and I wish that's where we were at. Hopefully you guys are not losing your butts.
 

AroundTheWorld

Be in the Moment
Speedway Pass
Jul 24, 2007
2,909
1,844
550
.
hmmm. Interesting.
What will the last quarter bring?
 

MJ DeMarco

Raving Lunatic
Staff member
Speedway Pass
FASTLANE INSIDER
LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR
Summit Attendee
Jul 23, 2007
28,054
93,418
3,751
Phoenix, AZ

Rawr

Gold Contributor
Speedway Pass
Aug 12, 2007
1,801
1,661
454
south florida
I can't help but laugh when looking at the poll now. We sure are an optimistic bunch :thumbsup:
 

MJ DeMarco

Raving Lunatic
Staff member
Speedway Pass
FASTLANE INSIDER
LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR
Summit Attendee
Jul 23, 2007
28,054
93,418
3,751
Phoenix, AZ
I can't help but laugh when looking at the poll now. We sure are an optimistic bunch :thumbsup:
Ha Ha ... yea, I forgot to add under 9000, 8000, 7000 ....
 

randallg99

Bronze Contributor
Aug 9, 2007
1,390
177
92
NJ
I picked 13000 . I saw the carnage coming, but I really thought it was going to be isolated and confined in the financials. and I never forsaw the spillage into all of the sectors....

for a while a lot of talk was about how the DOW will break 10k but now more recently the talk is how the DOW will break 9k... it seems like its becoming a self fulfilling prophecy for the markets.
 

g-dogg

New Contributor
Aug 24, 2008
57
5
17
ouch we hit 8G's... im waiting till the Dow breaks above the resistance (could be 6 - 18 month before that happens) then im buying stocks with as much money as i can possibly get (cash, credit, loans, EVERYTHING) these are the times where 10 Grand can make u a millionaire in a few months.
 

Runum

Platinum Contributor
Speedway Pass
FASTLANE INSIDER
Summit Attendee
Aug 8, 2007
5,968
4,273
1,788
DFW
I guessed 13,000.:smilielol: It closed at 8,776.39 year end, right? Wanna do another one for 2009?

52 week range was 7,449.38 - 13,279.54
 

kidgas

Contributor
Jul 25, 2007
532
49
33
Indiana
optionsdude.com
I believe the Dow:Gold ratio will bottom around 7 in the next 2-5 years. I would estimate a gold price of around 1200-1500 putting the Dow in the neighborhood of 9400-10500. This is the general feeling that is impacting my overall strategy over the next few years.
A Dow of 7200 with gold near 1000 puts the ratio at 7.2. It could certainly go lower (meaning the ratio). However, I would seriously begin looking at the case for getting back into equities over the next 6-18 months.
 

randallg99

Bronze Contributor
Aug 9, 2007
1,390
177
92
NJ
A Dow of 7200 with gold near 1000 puts the ratio at 7.2. It could certainly go lower (meaning the ratio). However, I would seriously begin looking at the case for getting back into equities over the next 6-18 months.
BINGO

the dollar cannot continue deflating all the while interest rates stay low and equities stay low... something has got to give. the stimulus packages (I never thought I would say this) might actually work in that it gives a lot of reasons to throw money back into equities. (but, we do need to solve BAC and C's problems first) Whatever companies that can benefit directly from the stimulus are simply going to make a mint.

The deflationary period (and it's real) we are experiencing has me puzzled regarding the price of gold.... there is a big disconnect because the flight to the US$ is strong right now around the world....

the counter argument to the stimulus package is that inflation is going to shoot the moon and this is when I thought my buy into gold would make more sense but apparently I am late to the party (still have a very small exposure to gold, but much smaller than just a few months ago when I was pounding the 2k/z chant)

at 90% cash today I am betting we will see some significant lows coming up and equity purchases will make a lot of sense for the long term investor and methinks the easy money is about to be made if we are sitting on a lot of cash-

but as tempting as it may be to rush into buying stocks, let me warn the whole lot of you that I personally doubt we've seen the bottom yet...

thanks for your insights, kidgas.
 

Kevn

New Contributor
Nov 14, 2008
25
2
10
What about commercial real estate? Seems the write downs for commercial are starting. I think were looking downhill towards 3500.

Companies such as CAT are poster boys for the stimulus but its easier to find a nun in a whore house than finding capital to buy equipment. Talked to a friend of mine with CAT and the biggest problem they have is with the banks and finding financing for suppliers and customers. I was told the international customers are having major disruptions with financing.

AIG planning largest loss in history: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29353282
 

kidgas

Contributor
Jul 25, 2007
532
49
33
Indiana
optionsdude.com
One of the problems with trying to assess what will happen to the price of gold during a deflation is that up until 1971, the dollar was linked to gold, so the two were interchangable. As prices declined (through demand destruction), cash and gold both gained purchasing power.

The problem now is that we have monetary inflation through Fed actions occurring at the same time as deleveraging (which in effect is monetary deflation) of personal and corporate balance sheets. Eventually something has to give. Also, there is price deflation through demand destruction which is secondary to all the above.

I think what you need to do now is prepare for the next stage. Personally, I feel that the investments to be making now are those that do well during the spring phase of Kondratieff's cycle. I feel that his cycles result from human nature, and we are seeing this play out. You can see more of my thoughts here:

http://www.thefastlanetomillions.com/stocks-options-currency-trading/16909-dang-its-getting-cold-out-there.html#post64918
 

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