10/10 Biz Idea, in 'Soon to Be Gone' (Possibly) Industry? What to Do?

[PureA]

So I'm in a tough spot here...

I could use some wisdom from you wise folk!

One of my first ever business ideas has been playing on my mind. (It ranks very high with CENTS)

I went at it about 3 years ago. I was 19.

At this point, I was a complete beginner.

I literally remember not knowing what SEO was etc.

Ultimately I went about the business completely the wrong way, didn't lose much except some time.

So here I am at 22. After three years (nothing I know, shh you veterans) of business experience I feel like I would be able to execute the idea 1000x better.

HOWEVER, and this is it...

The business relies on self driving cars not being a thing.

Am I thinking too deep into the future. I mean realistically self driving cars aren't going to be fully adopted for approx 10-20 years?

I am just cautious in investing blood, sweat, and years into a business that I know will be deemed irrelevant in the not too distant future.

Should I be looking to build for 2-5 years as large as possible and sell up asap?

It just seems wrong beginning something with its implosion not too far ahead.

Thoughts?

 

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[MidwestLandlord]

Am I thinking too deep into the future.

Without having any idea what you're actually talking about...yes, in my opinion.

I run a company that grosses ten's of millions a year...and it would be game over instantly if self-driving cars took over.

I put "self-driving cars" on the bottom of my worry list, and then cut the bottom third of the list off and threw it away.

All recent polls show an approx 80% public opinion against self-driving cars. There is just no way to know what the future holds, ya know?

 

[zerobrainwash]

It's always hard to predict the future and it will be interesting to see what others have to say. But according to Gartner Hype Cycle, autonomous vehicles right now have just passed the peak of inflated expectations. It's absolutely a great technology but as graph predicts, it is AT LEAST 10 years until mainstream adoption. And for me, 10 years also looks overly optimistic and I would do further research based on your idea. I entirely believe that truck companies will be one of the first to take advantage of self-driving tech, as they are already trying to do, and 10 years may be a reasonable timeframe to have in mind. On the other hand, I doubt that 10 years is enough for self-driving cars to start buzzing around in highly-populated cities and replace taxes, as an example, too much risk and it's unlikely that the government will allow that lightly. But that's just my guess.

One thing to note is that if there are more people who are doubting like you and are not starting transportation related companies due to the same fears, you can take an advantage of that and risk being right that self-driving vehicles are overhyped. Even though I am entirely pro-innovation, as @MidwestLandlord said, most public is not in this regard and it would be reasonable to say whatever your idea is, it's safe for at least 10 years.

[GALLERY=media, 35]Gartner Hype Cycle by zerobrainwash posted Jun 19, 2017 at 7:46 PM[/GALLERY]

 

[Waspy]

I wouldn't worry.

Start today, make a profit, make more profit, self driving car come in, find an exit and be on your way. They don't? Make more profit.

 

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