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Fed Up With Your Country? Where Is Left to Go?

Flint

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Some interesting data coming out about the VAXCClNE. A recent study of infection outbreak showed that 74% of those infected were fully vaxinated.

Thanks for linking it, I'm curious about this stuff myself.

One question I have, which was not addressed, are vaxinated people actually getting sick at a higher rate than unvaxinated?
Can you clarify what you mean by "getting sick at a higher rate"?

That the ratio of vaxxed who get sick to all vaxxed could be higher than the ratio of unvaxxed who get sick to all unvaxxed?

I say this because the infection occurred a month ago, and vaccination rates at that time were certainly less than the 74% reported infections, in fact average vaccination rates today are lower than 74%.
I think there were about 50% fully vaxxed in the country at that time. But the linked article states that MA residents (so those considered in the study) were fully vaxxed in 69%.

Then 74% is just a proportion of vaxxed who tested positive to the total number of people who tested positive (346 out of 469 = 74%). But we don't really know how many vaxxed and unvaxxed MA residents travelled to the summer events in Banstable County at that time. Too bad, it'd be good to see breakthrough cases as a percentage of total vaxxed. Should we assume the total number of residents (~210k in Banstable County, ~7.1M in MA)?

BTW, four vaxxed (4/346 = ~1%) and one unvaxxed (1/123 = ~1%) were hospitalised. Nobody died. Not bad in terms of severity.

If infections are occurring at a higher rate in vaxinated people, this is a warning alarm that antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) might be occurring.
Is it how ADE is defined? I thought ADE would mean enhanced symptoms (higher severity of disease) or at least higher viral load. None of which seems to be reported in the study.

Namely it has been previously reported by the CDC that viral loads from vaxinated and unvaxinated were similar. But as I discussed viral load is an indirect measure of how much infection is present.
So no sign of vax-induced ADE?

ADE typically occurs months or years after vaccination
Interesting. Can you link some sources that talk about it? Thanks!
 
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GIlman

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Thanks for linking it, I'm curious about this stuff myself.


Can you clarify what you mean by "getting sick at a higher rate"?

That the ratio of vaxxed who get sick to all vaxxed could be higher than the ratio of unvaxxed who get sick to all unvaxxed?


I think there were about 50% fully vaxxed in the country at that time. But the linked article states that MA residents (so those considered in the study) were fully vaxxed in 69%.

Then 74% is just a proportion of vaxxed who tested positive to the total number of people who tested positive (346 out of 469 = 74%). But we don't really know how many vaxxed and unvaxxed MA residents travelled to the summer events in Banstable County at that time. Too bad, it'd be good to see breakthrough cases as a percentage of total vaxxed. Should we assume the total number of residents (~210k in Banstable County, ~7.1M in MA)?

BTW, four vaxxed (4/346 = ~1%) and one unvaxxed (1/123 = ~1%) were hospitalised. Nobody died. Not bad in terms of severity.


Is it how ADE is defined? I thought ADE would mean enhanced symptoms (higher severity of disease) or at least higher viral load. None of which seems to be reported in the study.

So no sign of vax-induced ADE?


Interesting. Can you link some sources that talk about it? Thanks!

In regards to getting sick at a higher rate, it starts to get complicated when a population is partially vaxinated. For instance let’s say that exactly 50% of people are vaxinated in a sample. If say 100 vaxinated and 100 unvaxinated people get sick then people are getting sick at an equal rate weather vaxinated or invaccinated. I.e. 50% of infections happened in each 50% group.

Likewise say 75% were vaxxed, and then 75% of infections were in vaxxed. Then that means vaccination status did not impacted the rate of infection, but was correlated to percent of population in each group.

Now let’s say that in or 50/50 vaxxed/unvaxxed population that 75% of people who got sick were vaxxed and 25% unvaxxed. That would imply that vaxxed are getting infection at higher rates compared to unvaxxed. In this example at 3x the rate.

if the vaccine was 100% effective then in our 50/50 population 100% of infections would occur in unvaxinated and 0% in vaxinated.

So to know what that infection rates mean, you must know the baseline vaccination rate in the population to make sense of it.

I don’t know what the actual vaccination rate of the population that study was derived from so it’s not possible to say if or how much vaxxed can unvaxxed people get the infections.

Hope that makes sense.

As far as ADE, it can be that either the rate of infection is higher and/or the severity of illness is greater. The point of ADE is that the virus is more efficient in the presence of antibodies and/or the associated immune response than it would be in the absence of antibodies and/or vaccine induced immune response.

As far as no ADE because viral titers were just as high in vaxxed vs unvaxxed, maybe and maybe not. As I described ADE is any enhancement of the virus in either ability to infect or degree of severity. There needs to be more rigorous study to determine that.

The concern here is that antibodies should be able to neutralize/sterilize against the pathogen. Meaning people should not be getting infected. ADE often happens in the setting of antibodies that are not neutralizing. So the very fact that people are getting sick after vaccination means that the risk of ADE is increased because the antibodies are not neutralizing. That’s why I said it’s a red flag and possible early warning sign of ADE.

Also, even if ADE was not present today does not mean that it can’t pop up as time goes on. Your immune response is not static but evolves over a period of time. There are different antibodies (e.g. IgM, IgG) as well as different cells like T-Cells and also chemicals such as the complement cascade that increase or decrease in different phases of immunity. ADE can be a delayed observation because the immune response is not static but morphs over time.

Here is a very in depth paper about ADE and different possible mechanisms with Covid. It’s pretty medical jargon dense, but has tons of interesting information in it.


On a different note, and something that I find very concerning, is that during Covid our definition of sick and disease has been radically changed - and this is terrible.

In the past someone was considered infected who presented with symptoms, and then there was confirmatory tests performed demonstrating presence of some pathogen.

Often we run confirmatory tests. For example if you go to your doctor with a sore throat they will do a throat swab called a rapid strep, that tests for the presence of a specific protein on strep bacteria. If it’s positive then a culture is sent out to see if they can grow and isolate the strep bacteria.

The typical pattern was therefore symptoms, preliminary diagnosis, confirmed diagnosis.

With viruses it’s a little trickier because it’s hard to culture and isolate them compared to bacteria. But it was similar in that people presenting with symptoms were tested with antigen tests. It was the presence of flu symptoms and confirmatory tests.

With Covid we are changing things. You are diagnosed with Covid if any trace of Covid is detected in your sample. You don’t need any symptoms or signs whatsoever of infection. Ever.

We are talking about screening totally healthy people without any symptoms. If your test is positive, you are deemed sick, and removed from the population. Golfers are removed from the tour, olympians are removed from competition. A positive test is enough to demand someone be removed from participation in society.

A positive test does not mean you are actually infected. It just means that there is viral material detected in your sample. This viral material could be dead viruses, contamination, microscopic traces of virus that never causes infection in the person, etc.

Covid diagnosis should be symptoms PLUS positive tests. Otherwise people will repeatedly test positive overtime and be removed each time because they have Covid, never develop symptoms, and in reality never have had a Covid infection to begin with

I would recommend that anyone who has had a positive Covid test in the past get an antibody test. If the antibody test is negative, I would take that to mean you were never infected and do not have immunity. The antibody tests are much more reliable for the determination of immunity and past infection than the PCR test is for diagnosis of Covid infection.

Something interesting that happened last year, there were a bunch of people with positive Covid tests at one hospital in Phoenix, months later the started testing for antibodies to Covid….and well less than 50% of people came up positive, I don’t remember the exact number but is was quite low.

It was interesting because a bunch of people said they didn’t believe the antibody tests. However I think the reality was that the majority of these people were never infected, had false positives, and therefore never developed antibodies.


The point of this long discussion, detecting some microscopic quantity of viral material (especially by a ridiculously sensitive test such as PCR that can detect genetic evidence of even one or a few virus particles) is not equal to a viral infection. This is a total turning medical history on its head in how we define infectious disease.
 
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Madame Peccato

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I see a lot of doomposting in this thread, but I feel like things are going to get better soon! I expect this nonsense to be over by winter / next spring.

I don't have any logical explanation for this. Just my gut feeling.

Keep your chin up :smile2: The average person is scared of strong people, that's why they behave the way they do. Be strong.
 
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YanC

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These protests basically do nothing though unless you actually take over the government by force right?

I'm all for it dont get me wrong.
I joigned the protests last week, and will go every saturday unless I have business to do. You may very well be right, I actually think you are, but at least I will have done something. Recent history has shown that when protests are strong enough, politicians have to give in. Apparently, it's growing here. There might be hope. Civil disobedience plus living my life as normally as possible is my way to make a contribution to what I believe is right.
 

Fox

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Paid for my parents to come out to Poland for a week in September from Ireland.

My dad refused to take the vaccine so it will be the first time he will be able to eat at an indoor restaurant this year.

I am looking forward to giving them a "freedom" week away from the madness of Ireland.
 

gryfny

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Paid for my parents to come out to Poland for a week in September from Ireland.

My dad refused to take the VAXCClNE so it will be the first time he will be able to eat at an indoor restaurant this year.

I am looking forward to giving them a "freedom" week away from the madness of Ireland.
How is the situation in Poland? I was supposed to go there this month for a music festival (outdoor) that got cancelled due to the restrictions. I figured it was the same as the rest of Europe. Are bars and clubs open?
 
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Fox

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How is the situation in Poland? I was supposed to go there this month for a music festival (outdoor) that got cancelled due to the restrictions. I figured it was the same as the rest of Europe. Are bars and clubs open?

I have stopped watching nearly all the news so I cant speak for the official rules but day to day living it is great.

I have only worn a mask one time in Poland in months - I stayed at an upscale hotel in Warsaw and they asked me only one time in the Lobby to put one on (they gave me one since I don't own any anymore ha).

Other than that I have been to gyms, shopping markets, malls, cinemas, shops, cafes, restaurants etc - no mask.
No one really cares. Sometimes I see people wear them when buying food but it's like less than half of the people.

Actually, there is one mall in the trendy part of Gdansk (Forum mall) that seems to wear them a lot.
It is mostly younger people too which I thought was kinda strange. But I rarely go there.

So ya everyday life is nearly 100% normal. Apart from talking to my family, social media and checking the forum, I forget about it sometimes. I really hope it can stay that way. But winter is coming...
 

MTF

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Paid for my parents to come out to Poland for a week in September from Ireland.

My dad refused to take the VAXCClNE so it will be the first time he will be able to eat at an indoor restaurant this year.

I am looking forward to giving them a "freedom" week away from the madness of Ireland.

I hope they come in early September because by the end of it I wouldn't be surprised if they introduced new restrictions. The EU's target of 70% of vaxinated population won't happen in Poland (it's now stuck around 50%) and they'll have to incentivize people to take the vaccine. That plus Delta means further restrictions, probably worse ones for the unvaxinated ones. There are already some restrictions for those who aren't unvaxinated (for example many concerts and larger events only sell tickets to vaxinated people).

Other than that I have been to gyms, shopping markets, malls, cinemas, shops, cafes, restaurants etc - no mask.
No one really cares. Sometimes I see people wear them when buying food but it's like less than half of the people.

I guess it depends on the place. When I was in Gdańsk I was surprised that so many people didn't wear masks in a shopping mall. And the funny thing is that it was actually Forum. When I saw so many people there not wearing them, I took mine off as well. In my city almost everyone wears a mask in a shopping mall.

So I still wear a mask but that's primarily/almost exclusively in supermarkets (I very rarely go to shopping malls). My rule is that if the employees don't wear them, then I don't wear it either. And if I wear it, I keep it under my nose all the time (like most people these days).

I know that there are police "raids" where they visit a place and fine people for not wearing masks so the risk is there.

But most of the time, it's much better than it was just a few months ago. Considering that a half of the population is vaxinated, probably at least 20-30% had COVID and is immune and the rest doesn't care either way, I doubt that people will suddenly start obsessing over masks again in the fall.

But you never know. There's always a new boogeyman hiding under your bed; just need to tell mass media to start talking about it all the time again and things can get bleak like last fall.
 

gryfny

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I have stopped watching nearly all the news so I cant speak for the official rules but day to day living it is great.

I have only worn a mask one time in Poland in months - I stayed at an upscale hotel in Warsaw and they asked me only one time in the Lobby to put one on (they gave me one since I don't own any anymore ha).

Other than that I have been to gyms, shopping markets, malls, cinemas, shops, cafes, restaurants etc - no mask.
No one really cares. Sometimes I see people wear them when buying food but it's like less than half of the people.

Actually, there is one mall in the trendy part of Gdansk (Forum mall) that seems to wear them a lot.
It is mostly younger people too which I thought was kinda strange. But I rarely go there.

So ya everyday life is nearly 100% normal. Apart from talking to my family, social media and checking the forum, I forget about it sometimes. I really hope it can stay that way. But winter is coming...
Thanks for the extensive update. Maybe I'll look into a short trip to Poland in September as well, it sounds great really.

And not watching the news might be the healthiest thing to do, especially in times like these.
 
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Timmy C

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The leaders of the free world are taking the piss out of us all.

This is insane. People die.
Like the flu...

Texas and Florida seem sane.
 

FritsFlitsFstlne

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The leaders of the free world are taking the piss out of us all.

This is insane. People die.
Like the flu...

Texas and Florida seem sane.
Posted this before, in case you missed this...

https://mynews.one/breaking-alberta...se-sars-cov-2-doesnt-exist-in-the-real-world/

This might be help- and hopefull... All covid regulations are removed in Alberta Canada because of Patrick King who won a case against a 1200 dollar ticket.

Any lawyers around here who might be able to do the same thing in their country’s?
 

Mammoth

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Posted this before, in case you missed this...

https://mynews.one/breaking-alberta...se-sars-cov-2-doesnt-exist-in-the-real-world/

This might be help- and hopefull... All C0VlD regulations are removed in Alberta Canada because of Patrick King who won a case against a 1200 dollar ticket.

Any lawyers around here who might be able to do the same thing in their country’s?
As much as I'd like this to be the case, it's not.

“I Wasn’t Successful, No I did Not Win The Court Case” Patrick King on Press For Truth!

He didn't win anything. Restrictions weren't changed because of him. However, he did bring a lot of attention to the issue of the lack of evidence for the scamdemic.
 
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xmartel

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As much as I'd like this to be the case, it's not.

“I Wasn’t Successful, No I did Not Win The Court Case” Patrick King on Press For Truth!

He didn't win anything. Restrictions weren't changed because of him. However, he did bring a lot of attention to the issue of the lack of evidence for the scamdemic.

He didn't win the court case, but he did expose the truth. Here's a better video dealing with the lack of virus isolation.
 

PirriRichFast

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Why with this pandemic (plandemic) Politicians all around the world are saying the same words Build back better??
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngF2cpoxkQw

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rAiTDQ-NVY


Look even Prince Charles from England is deep down in this stuff.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BucTwPegW5k

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5pxhSnDr4U


Also WEF say: You will OWN NOTHING, and you will be HAPPY
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jK3_H4jI-ZA



All leaders of different countries use that.. but if they ask them why? they don´t explain it.
Why the presidents and royal families visit Klaus Schwab? they ask him for advice?
he looks like a James bond bad guy

He also has made a book called : C0VlD-19: The Great Reset

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B08CRZ9VZB/

Why they all say covid19 is the perfect opportunity for a big reset?

Why before the covid19 outbreak 1 year before they had a massive Pandemic Exercise Called: Event 201? with a corona virus?

Then later this pandemic came.

Also they talk about cyber pandemics, i call them cyber plandemics
Averting a Cyber Pandemic Part 1 | DAVOS AGENDA 2021

So maybe a cyber pandemic is next>>?

After all its written in stone that they want to have only 500.000.000 people left.. that are just total controlled slaves.

maybe i only say maybe? i dont know shit..
But i have seen allot of video´s of virologists around the world, top notch high skilled, high IQ people that tell a total different story about these so called vaccines..
They don´t know what will happen.. allot of them think its very dangerous to take this so called vaccines.
Before this pandemic scientists never succeed to make a vaccine against coronaviruses. they never came further then animal testing.. and most of the animals or all the animals died..
Now with this pandemic they just made some stuff and say come and get it!!!
So! Maybe the real pandemic is jet to come?? after 60% world wide will drop dead or get severely ill from anti reactions from lets say the common cold..
Some experts) claim that most people that will get the real Jab will die in the next 2 years..
But also allot of people will get a placebo.


In Germany they admitted that the face masks where a test against humanity.. to see how far they can go..
Also experts in virology say that face masks are rubbish, because 1 of the first organs that will absorb virus pieces flying in the air.. are your eyes.. so lets all get some big Scubba mask!! a snorkel and some flippers.! lets go.

From the first couple weeks in this plandemic.. i believed it..
But after some weeks i thought, this is strange.. allot of things are not right.
This isnt about a virus. it isnt about or health.
Its the same old strategy: same old strategy divide and conquer. and put the Sheeps against each other.. put them in fear, doubt,uncertainty and they will obey.
Most will obey.. because they believe everything they hear and see in the news from their governments there hole life.
It looks like most people are just brain dead.. they dont think, they cant.. they are just obedient workers!

George Carlin - American Dream HD

But we humans forgot that we are Humans of flesh and blood?
They call us citizens. or persons..

Are you a person??
Really?

Or are you a human, a living human.

This goes much further..
Because when i came in to this f! world! Yes in the Netherlands.. there is a rule.
My father or mother most sign me in!
They go to the Township and say we got a child to to indicate.

So jeej now the have me indicate.. i now have a birth birth certificate.
Now im property of the state of the Netherlands! Jeej im so happy!
But you most do this, otherwise you get fined and stuff. its a crime if you don´t do this.

So now you have a sofi number and stuff and a name on your passport..
But your not that person on a passport with that written name?

If a police officer want to ask you something.. they always ask?
Give your blabla card to identify that you are blablabla..
But are you really that blalabla on the Passport or identification pass?

If you say Yes iam that person. Ok you just confirmed that you are a person.. and not a living human with the name blablabla.. the ok you agreed that the rules that apply on persons.. not humans.. apply on you.
So with this they can do whatever they want.

This goes much deeper then you all think.. or maybe im just a crazy dumb F fool. and talk shit.
But why little kids now are already complaining that they have so much obligations? even 6 year olds?
Whe are all tricked and slavery and working and all this. bullshit..

Look in amerika they cant find enough people anymore to fullfill the jobs.
Why? the people get more money if they stay home then if the go to work at MCdonalds.
This is the beginning of Doom stuff..

Maybe the elites want this.. that soon half the world.. will have no job.. and kill themself or cant get a house..
or whatever.. in Holland they try to get chef,, that makes food in restaurants from Spain..
Because here they get paid so low.. that allot of them rather just keep living without a job..


Ok i spring from the tree to the Kitchen.

Lets start over..
How is the world running now.

The elites
Companies.. they run the politicians.
Police, Army.
Media news, all blalblalbla
People.. with no rights.

How it should be
God! i guess there is a god.. All countries have gods. the Viking series!! Whoa they have allot of Gods!
But Lets says there is a god.

God!
Humans
the government, humans are above the government. we made the government.. so! jeah.
Companies.
Etc..

But they switched everything around.
I have read that.
the pope.. claimed to be the highest on earth.. so he claimed to be god on earth.
he made that rule.. somewhere
Why all world leaders.. always go to the pope? the Vatican is a land on itself?
Why the big fire back in the days in london changed everything?

Because they changed everything.
Humans most claim back there sovereignty.. Why war criminals say in court. i don´t recognise this court!
Because words have meaning and power..
If i say to the officer yes i am that person, I recognise it.
Or if they ask are you a citizen of the netherlands? and i say yes! then yes iam screwed.. i dont say i am a human being from flesh and blood.. no i say yes to the Netherlands blabla question. So same rules apply..
Everything they made up applies to it..

A person is not a living human.. so the rules that applies on persons are totally different then the rules that apply for humans.

But hey! we all think we are persons.. that the first mistake.
Just some stuff to think about.. the next time they want to F you up.

Because on some sites i read that the Netherlands for example is not a country, but a company
And look at the King? the rules do not apply on him or his family.

What if i buy a car? i have papers with it.. who owns the papers? not me!
So is my car really my car>? or is it not really my car?
the papers that i get with the car say something else.

Why diplomats have different rights? they park cars everywhere.. they not care about the rules..
They have different passports. its weird.. likely they not get fines.

Why politicians getting more worse every year?
Why can we vote? who says voting is 100% true.. I think Biden is biggest vote scam in history.
Why are we allowed to vote? just so we can have a good feeling>?

Why people always say: if you do not vote you have no right to complain!! Whaaat!!?? that is such lame bullshit.
I have every right to complain! i dindt vote because i dont like all of them! and there crappie bullshit!.
The voters have no right to complain because they voted for the bullshit.

But really the elites and top of the world leaders are just top notch bitches and asholes that doesnt care about the people... they only care about there own agendas and i seems just seems that they all work together in turbo mode to get a big reset.. and maybe 1 world currency etc..
it will take some time.. 10 years or something.

Its time for people.. to really think.. why they need to apply to all the made up rules..
God didnt made all this rules..
You can say.. Fo this nerd with god and stuff..
But why for example in the netherlands the King and president know this God stuff and rules.. they believe in the bible and the rules.. they believe in that stuff.

So they know that if you know what your rights are as a human.. they are in trouble.
You need to reclaim your right as a human.
What i read about the Netherlands.. Holland.. is that we are still under the Sea Rules..
So when someone gets born.. and they go tho the town to say blalbla he is born..
you get the born certicate and the fictive name and bullshit..
They say after some days.. or a dead package on sea.

So you need to reclaim that bullshit.. and everything..
this shit is to deep for me..
Also the only real money that goes back in the days in the bible and before..
Is gold.. without hard money or currency.. everything will fall apart..
Every human has the right on land and some gold..

lol i stop this text.., you guys think hes drunk..
and i need to sleep.. my brains cant typ this shit anymore..

Plz dont delete.. ^ this is nothing just the beginning..
do you people really think everything will come back to normal?
No thats a utopia.. it will only get worse.

So thats why its important to really think... why the pope.. said back in 2012 that he dindt stand behind the lawmakers and law defenders anymore.. he changed some shit..
WHy? He changed things..

Look at the protocols of zion.. look what is written in there..
They all planned stuff way before we know...
Problem in the world is sheeps... and the sheeps can become your enemy.
Because sheeps wil believe everything and fight for the corrupt Goverements

the biggest problem on earth is Zombie people without brains... that believe in governments.
Why now all that people believe so much in governments??
In History governments always dint have the best interesse for the people.


pff i said i stop.. now i go.. im nuts i know.

Adios.
 

Flint

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In regards to getting sick at a higher rate, it starts to get complicated when a population is partially vaxinated. For instance let’s say that exactly 50% of people are vaxinated in a sample. If say 100 vaxinated and 100 unvaxinated people get sick then people are getting sick at an equal rate weather vaxinated or invaccinated. I.e. 50% of infections happened in each 50% group.

Likewise say 75% were vaxxed, and then 75% of infections were in vaxxed. Then that means vaccination status did not impacted the rate of infection, but was correlated to percent of population in each group.

Now let’s say that in or 50/50 vaxxed/unvaxxed population that 75% of people who got sick were vaxxed and 25% unvaxxed. That would imply that vaxxed are getting infection at higher rates compared to unvaxxed. In this example at 3x the rate.

if the VAXCClNE was 100% effective then in our 50/50 population 100% of infections would occur in unvaxinated and 0% in vaxinated.

So to know what that infection rates mean, you must know the baseline vaccination rate in the population to make sense of it.

I don’t know what the actual vaccination rate of the population that study was derived from so it’s not possible to say if or how much vaxxed can unvaxxed people get the infections.

Hope that makes sense.
Yes, it does, thanks. I also see the Barnstable County sample/study doesn't tell us much. Maybe only that severity isn't high, vaxxed or unvaxxed.

Have you seen this study?

From this one, we can get some numbers that were missing in the US study and look at the rates you described.

They talk about round 12 (between 20 May and 7 June this year) and round 13 (between 24 June and 12 July this year). I crunched some numbers from table 4 for self-reported and those who consented to data linkage (BTW I expected a bit more correlation between non-vaxxed and no consent for data sharing but alas it didn't make much difference). This is what emerges:

In round 12, about 0.25% unvaxxed and 0.06% vaxxed tested positive (so more than 3 unvaxxed per 1 vaxxed). Then in round 13, the numbers went up for both groups, to something like 1.26% and 0.34%, respectively (similar ratio of unvaxxed to vaxxed). The increase in the number of cases by a factor of about 5 from one month to another is not related to the vaccination status, but rather because of the rise in delta cases at that time. So no ADE or similar. And the vaxx seems to be working 3x better than not being vaxxed. But effectiveness looks lower than in the clinical trials with the initial variant. I expect it to drop to the flu shot effectiveness levels of 40%-60%.

As far as ADE, it can be that either the rate of infection is higher and/or the severity of illness is greater. The point of ADE is that the virus is more efficient in the presence of antibodies and/or the associated immune response than it would be in the absence of antibodies and/or VAXCClNE induced immune response.
Not observed with C0VlD-19 so far? Or am I wrong?

As far as no ADE because viral titers were just as high in vaxxed vs unvaxxed, maybe and maybe not. As I described ADE is any enhancement of the virus in either ability to infect or degree of severity. There needs to be more rigorous study to determine that.
I think the uncertainty like this one shows that we (in general, not singling anyone out) can't sit perfectly still on the fence. We tend to fill the blanks with what we believe is more likely or supports our overall stance.

You seem to believe the ADE will occur. I'm of the opposite view. But we both know we need to wait because there's no 100% certain proof either way. The problem is I would never be able to provide one. All we could get is a boring and slow reduction of uncertainty. As a fastlaner you know we put a threshold and timeout limits on such diminishing returns and move on to deal with the more important stuff.

The concern here is that antibodies should be able to neutralize/sterilize against the pathogen. Meaning people should not be getting infected. ADE often happens in the setting of antibodies that are not neutralizing. So the very fact that people are getting sick after vaccination means that the risk of ADE is increased because the antibodies are not neutralizing. That’s why I said it’s a red flag and possible early warning sign of ADE.
I have a comment on that. Because of the way you wrote it (and I think you didn't mean it), it seems like you're saying this: vaxxed people get sick = ADE. You probably meant that if vaxxed were getting sick at a higher rate (or experiencing more severe symptoms) then it would be because of ADE (I'm not sure this causation is always true either). We haven't observed that. The % in various news are a bit random because they're not normalised to what's relevant (like 74% in Barnstable County).

If you claim that vaxxed shouldn't be getting infected at all... Well, flu vax is only 40-60% effective. But it doesn't mean it's because of ADE.

Also, even if ADE was not present today does not mean that it can’t pop up as time goes on
This is a tricky argument. Because you don't have a timeout on it and so it can never be falsified. A bit like saying: if Big Foot hasn't been captured yet doesn't mean that it can't pop up as time goes on.

I have a different thought experiment for you: if you were to place a bet when vax-related ADE will pop up, what would you say? How much / what would you put on the line?

I like this way of approaching uncertain problems because it snaps us out of analysis paralysis or doomposting and forces us to act.

The point of this long discussion, detecting some microscopic quantity of viral material (especially by a ridiculously sensitive test such as PCR that can detect genetic evidence of even one or a few virus particles) is not equal to a viral infection. This is a total turning medical history on its head in how we define infectious disease.
Oh yes, I know. That's why I was surprised you kept referring to "tested positive" as "sick".

Thanks for your comments and perspective.
 

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With the Delta Variant spreading here in the Philippines, some of the cities and provinces here are on total hard lockdown (Enhanced Community Quarantine) specifically in Metro Manila.

What’s worse here is that before implementing ECQ, there is a Fake News scare that drives people in Manila to go camp outside vax sites. The fake news is “You cannot go out or receive cash aid if not vaxinated”. This would fuel the infection rate in the Capital.

Luckily, vax is still optional here in the Philippines but Filipinos want to be vax because of perks.

In our province, the border checkpoints had already tightened. If you want to visit here, you should have PCR test, Travel Pass etc, but a radio commentator expressed concern about the lack of security of the same borders and I don’t know if our government is weak in terms of execution in flattening the curve.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Just a reminder that certain words on the forum are censored, some links may not render correctly especially if they contain the word covid, vaxcine, or inv3rm3ctin.

Also WEF say: You will OWN NOTHING, and you will be HAPPY

Yes, if you're wondering why the "retire early" orthodoxy gets so much front page play in the financial rags is because those people have to sell everything they own, then they can claim this early retirement status due to minimalism and fiscal asceticism. In other words, it's a palatable version of the "own nothing and you'll be happy" narrative.
 
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Yes, it does, thanks. I also see the Barnstable County sample/study doesn't tell us much. Maybe only that severity isn't high, vaxxed or unvaxxed.

Have you seen this study?

From this one, we can get some numbers that were missing in the US study and look at the rates you described.

They talk about round 12 (between 20 May and 7 June this year) and round 13 (between 24 June and 12 July this year). I crunched some numbers from table 4 for self-reported and those who consented to data linkage (BTW I expected a bit more correlation between non-vaxxed and no consent for data sharing but alas it didn't make much difference). This is what emerges:

In round 12, about 0.25% unvaxxed and 0.06% vaxxed tested positive (so more than 3 unvaxxed per 1 vaxxed). Then in round 13, the numbers went up for both groups, to something like 1.26% and 0.34%, respectively (similar ratio of unvaxxed to vaxxed). The increase in the number of cases by a factor of about 5 from one month to another is not related to the vaccination status, but rather because of the rise in delta cases at that time. So no ADE or similar. And the vaxx seems to be working 3x better than not being vaxxed. But effectiveness looks lower than in the clinical trials with the initial variant. I expect it to drop to the flu shot effectiveness levels of 40%-60%.


Not observed with C0VlD-19 so far? Or am I wrong?


I think the uncertainty like this one shows that we (in general, not singling anyone out) can't sit perfectly still on the fence. We tend to fill the blanks with what we believe is more likely or supports our overall stance.

You seem to believe the ADE will occur. I'm of the opposite view. But we both know we need to wait because there's no 100% certain proof either way. The problem is I would never be able to provide one. All we could get is a boring and slow reduction of uncertainty. As a fastlaner you know we put a threshold and timeout limits on such diminishing returns and move on to deal with the more important stuff.


I have a comment on that. Because of the way you wrote it (and I think you didn't mean it), it seems like you're saying this: vaxxed people get sick = ADE. You probably meant that if vaxxed were getting sick at a higher rate (or experiencing more severe symptoms) then it would be because of ADE (I'm not sure this causation is always true either). We haven't observed that. The % in various news are a bit random because they're not normalised to what's relevant (like 74% in Barnstable County).

If you claim that vaxxed shouldn't be getting infected at all... Well, flu vax is only 40-60% effective. But it doesn't mean it's because of ADE.


This is a tricky argument. Because you don't have a timeout on it and so it can never be falsified. A bit like saying: if Big Foot hasn't been captured yet doesn't mean that it can't pop up as time goes on.

I have a different thought experiment for you: if you were to place a bet when vax-related ADE will pop up, what would you say? How much / what would you put on the line?

I like this way of approaching uncertain problems because it snaps us out of analysis paralysis or doomposting and forces us to act.


Oh yes, I know. That's why I was surprised you kept referring to "tested positive" as "sick".

Thanks for your comments and perspective.

Actually, I’m not trying to imply that ADE will happen, I don’t know if it will, and no one else does either. That’s one of the purposeof prolonged phase 4 trials to detect things like ADE. These phase 4 studies take years to complete.

Thanks for pointing out some unclear writing on my part. I don’t mean to imply that vaxxed sick = ADE. What I was trying to say was that when ADE occurs, it’s often in the setting of non-neutralizing antibodies. So the fact that vaxxed people get sick, means they the antibodies are likely not-neutralizing. If they have non-neutralizing antibodies then this increases the risk we will find ADE occurs, but it is not a 100% 1:1 link. It’s just a red flag for caution.

As for ADE being an open question that can never be answered, in a sense that is true, because it can be trigged by future variant modifications that are not circulating in the wild or just waning changes in immune response. But for all practical purposes the time frame of phase 4 trials allows for high risk ADE scenarios to develop. Typical FDA approval processes are basically a compromise where we say we have a high degree of certainty it’s safe for the vast majority of people, but 100% safe will never be a possibility.

No drug or vaccine can ever be considered 100% safe for all people under all circumstances. Think of drugs that have been released, and later removed from the market because something popped up long term, that was unknown during trials.

This isn’t to say I’m against drugs and vaccines at all. I’ve used very few medications in my life, but I have received more vaccines than the vast majority of Americans due to exposure and travel risks.

But the reality is every treatment under the sun has risks both known and unknown. That’s why it’s important to treat patients individually using a risk benefit model in relation to each individual patient.

Part of the reason I have concerns about ADE is that prior research into vaccines for SARS and MERs found ADE in the animal trials and those vaccines were scrapped. With the Covid vaccine these animal trials were mostly eliminated. Here is a paper that references some prior studies of ADE with SARS/MERS.


This is a quote from the summary at the end, as I assume most people don’t want to wade through a long technical research paper:

“Given past data on multiple SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV vaccine efforts have failed due to ADE in animal models (75, 81), it is reasonable to hypothesize a similar ADE risk for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and vaccines.”

So it’s not that I have concerns out of the blue, it’s that there is past history of ADE with past attempts at vaccine production. They have been working on these vaccines for a decade+, and now we develop and test a vaccine in 9 months and deem it safe and effective.

However, now they have changed their tune. No one is taking about it being 95% effective in preventing illness now. They have shifted the goal posts to it preventing serious illness when people get sick.

The point being, with a typical vaccine we would have known how effective, how long, and what effective meant. We didn’t and we still don’t. So if we don’t even know the dynamics of how effective it is, optimal dosing, need for boosters, etc….then how can you possibly know about safety and long term effects like ADE.

Simply put you cannot, and there is concerning history of failure in prior vaccine development and concerning trends in vaxinated people and infection that were not expected.

Hopefully safety is proven long term with these vaccines, and no ADE is ever found. But my bias is caution towards them for now until we have the history and experience to reasonably answer some of these unknown questions.

————-

Yes, your correct, that was an error on my part to say sick instead of tested positive. Unfortunately almost all studies do not differentiate symptoms or no symptoms. But I should be more clear and make sure to say tested positive in the future.
 
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GPM

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Ps, Albert seems like the place to move to haha
I am in Alberta and it's turning into an absolute crap hole. Canada is hell bent on destroying the only industry worth anything here, oil and gas.

The politicians here are all grandstanding like heroes for opening everything up, but keep in mind those clowns were the same ones who locked it all up in the first place.
 

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I am in Alberta and it's turning into an absolute crap hole. Canada is hell bent on destroying the only industry worth anything here, oil and gas.

The politicians here are all grandstanding like heroes for opening everything up, but keep in mind those clowns were the same ones who locked it all up in the first place.

I remember asking an Albertan, other than oil and gas, whats plan B for the economy?
Haha. What plan b?

AB got screwed last few years as per barrel prices dropped.
 
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We can't refine our own oil. We can't sell our oil. It's worse than useless these days.

Canada would rather ship oil on a tanker across the entire planet to service eastern Canada than complete a few hundred km of pipeline. We also can't ship oil west to get it to markets because it has to go through some forests on a pipeline and then a tanker. Tankers are bad! Meanwhile those same waters are packed with all kinds of shipping and industrial cargo. Just as long as it's not evil oil it is okay I guess. Gotta keep that virtue signalling up.
 

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I am in Alberta and it's turning into an absolute crap hole. Canada is hell bent on destroying the only industry worth anything here, oil and gas.

The politicians here are all grandstanding like heroes for opening everything up, but keep in mind those clowns were the same ones who locked it all up in the first place.

Hey, don't feel so bad.
Our politicians are hell bent on destroying the entire country.
 

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The roads seem really busy at the moment in Melbourne.

Almost like the people are sick of the governments shit.

A couple businesses open but 90% still complying.

Maybe there is SOME hope for us.
 
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MTF

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Another question worth discussing: HOW do you diversify yourself across different countries? I think we're past a world where you could have 100% of your life in one country.

As the recent months have shown, a country can turn into a complete shithole very, very fast. Or as they say, slowly, slowly, then all at once. So even if you're fed up with your country and move elsewhere, there's no guarantee it won't turn into another shitty place within the next few years.

So here are some ideas how to spread your life among many countries (brainstorming in no particular order):
  • Own a business that is easy to incorporate elsewhere if needed. Offline businesses are terrible in this aspect. Meanwhile, I can move my publishing business virtually overnight.
  • Own an international business. If you have clients in one country, you're at its mercy.
  • Invest globally. The fact that you were born in a given country doesn't mean you need to invest all of your money there. Spread it geographically, ideally by investing in countries with different cultures, laws, sizes, economic development level, etc. So, for example, it's better to diversify between Lithuania, Moldova, Bulgaria, Mexico, Singapore, and Taiwan than invest in the US, Canada, Australia, Ireland, and the UK.
  • If investing in just one market (most likely the US for most people here), choose multinational companies that can move to a friendlier jurisdiction if threatened by the government.
  • Keep precious metals in safe for wealth protection (neutral) jurisdictions (Switzerland, Singapore).
  • Network globally. If you have friends, associates, etc. only in one country, your social life will take a hit if you have to move. It's also a good idea to make international friends to be able to better understand other cultures, know how to adapt quickly, and know what's really going on in these other countries.
  • Travel to test-drive new places. Don't stay in a hotel. Rent a place at Airbnb that is located in an area where locals live so you can experience what it's like to live there. Rent a car to learn what it's like to drive one in another place (unless you don't own a car in your main country). Buy in the local supermarkets and eat local food. Pretend you're a local.
  • If you can afford it, build a "part-time" life in another country (or several) so that if you have to move, you already understand the local culture, laws, tips and tricks, know how to get around, have your favorite places (supermarkets, gyms, restaurants, etc.). Thanks to my travels, I now have a few places around the world where I could live comfortably right away because I spent there at least a couple of weeks, and sometimes months.
  • Speak at least one major foreign language. The more, the better. I strongly suggest Spanish because it's the national language of 20 countries plus Puerto Rico and is useful in several other countries and territories. If you speak Spanish, because of its similarity to other languages, you'll also have a basic understanding of Portuguese and a little bit of Italian and French. French could be also useful though most of the 34 French-speaking countries are in Africa. Russian could be useful if you're into Eastern Europe. Arabic is spoken in many countries, too but each country has a different dialect that is often so different from another country's dialect that it's not really that useful internationally.
  • If English is your second language, never settle for "good enough." People who don't speak English well are at a huge disadvantage.
  • Gain second residency in another country or perhaps apply for a digital nomad visa just in case. I guess this is a little less important for EU citizens as you have easy access to many countries.
  • Gain second citizenship. Easier said than done and if you can't get one via ancestry, the only realistic way to get it without moving elsewhere for a few years is to buy one (legally).
  • Be a minimalist and have few obligations. The less stuff you have, the easier it is to be flexible and move.
  • Be open to new cultures, cuisines, different ways of doing things, etc. The more adaptable you are, the easier it is to thrive in life.
  • Be interested in what's going on in other countries, and particularly those you'd like to visit or where possibly you'd want to live full-time or at least part-time. It's never a bad idea to have at least a basic understanding of your target country's history, politics, culture, inner problems, challenges, geography, etc.
  • Embrace cosmopolitanism. Whatever it is, your country is not the greatest country in the world. You owe it nothing. You're its citizen simply because you happened to be born on this piece of dirt at this moment in time. The world is what it is because of people from all countries, all cultures, and all beliefs working together. Nationalism is a disease.
I'll add more in another post if I think of anything else.

Any thoughts? Experiences? Plans you'd like to share on how you want to approach this?
 
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Speak at least one major foreign language. The more, the better. I strongly suggest Spanish because it's the national language of 20 countries plus Puerto Rico and is useful in several other countries and territories. If you speak Spanish, because of its similarity to other languages, you'll also have a basic understanding of Portuguese and a little bit of Italian and French. French could be also useful though most of the 34 French-speaking countries are in Africa. Russian could be useful if you're into Eastern Europe. Arabic is spoken in many countries, too but each country has a different dialect that is often so different from another country's dialect that it's not really that useful internationally.
What's your opinion on Asian languages and their usefulness?
 

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What's your opinion on Asian languages and their usefulness?

I'm not a fan of learning languages that are limited to one country and not a huge fan of most of Asia as a place to live (for a white person). Having said that, if I were to learn an Asian language, I would choose from languages with the greatest international distribution:
  • Chinese,
  • Malay,
  • Turkish.
Indian and Pakistani languages, Japanese and Korean, Vietnamese, etc., even though spoken by a lot of people, wouldn't be as useful internationally as the above three.
 
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Thanks for pointing out some unclear writing on my part. I don’t mean to imply that vaxxed sick = ADE. What I was trying to say was that when ADE occurs, it’s often in the setting of non-neutralizing antibodies. So the fact that vaxxed people get sick, means they the antibodies are likely not-neutralizing. If they have non-neutralizing antibodies then this increases the risk we will find ADE occurs, but it is not a 100% 1:1 link. It’s just a red flag for caution.
That's an interesting point. I think there are two mechanisms that we shouldn't conflate.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is how I see it.

On one hand, antibodies could be non-neutralising by being ineffective in fighting the virus. In this sense, they're passive/helpless and don't do enough to stop the viral infection. This is what translates to the limited effectiveness of some vaccines, e.g., flu vax. There's no negative effect enhanced by the antibodies, they just don't provide 100% protection against the virus.

On the other hand, we could have antibodies locked in on the parts of the virus that don't neutralise it. Instead, the antibodies cause the immune system to take up the virus into its own cells without inactivating it. This Trojan horse effect enhances the infection and is known as ADE. In my mind, it also relates to the severity of disease and not the increased number of mild cases (this definition of yours I've seen for the first time).

If you zoom out, you could label both as non-neutralising antibodies. But one mechanism doesn't increase the risk of the other, they're different and not interrelated. Otherwise, the same high level of risk of ADE would be true for the flu vax. Which is not the case.

I think what you mean by that increased risk (and I'm trying hard not to misinterpret your words, so let me know if I do) is that the positive cases among vaxxed aren't reassuring that ADE won't happen. Because, maybe, we'll look closer and see worse effects in vaxxed (instead of seeing significantly better results between vaxxed and unvaxxed). So the increased risk is a perception thing (very valid though), not the hard number crunching based on what's currently happening.

Let me tell you why I perceive the risk of ADE for SARS-CoV-2 vaxxines as low (not zero, but low).

Most of the articles about ADE and SARS-CoV-2 are from the perspective of "watch out, this could be dangerous" and not "this is what we've measured/observed in SARS-CoV-2 vax". If you pay attention to the wording, you'll notice they don't demonstrate it happens with these emergency use vaccines and this virus. They talk about how it was discovered in studies for previous non-/pre-C0VlD-19 viruses. They (to cite the paper you referenced): "it is reasonable to hypothesize a similar ADE risk for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and vaccines". It's a form of saying "better safe than sorry" to double down on the efforts to make sure it doesn't happen (then there are also articles that don't add anything new and their sole purpose is rehashing in the form of doomposting).

Researchers on the ground involved in SARS-CoV-2 vax development have been seriously concerned about ADE, just like the authors of the papers. That's why the studies, especially the pre-clinical ones, were designed to minimise the risk of creating a product with a high risk of ADE. I've seen people stressed about this (add the witch hunt and the negative pressure from the public opinion) trying their best to prevent unnecessary suffering.

We can say they may have missed something or that big pharma was rushing it and trying to get it out the door asap. Yes, this is a factor. I can't say much to refute this. I just know how much triaging of this problem happened with 100s of bad early vax candidates killed in the pipeline before moving to animal and in-human testing.

No drug or VAXCClNE can ever be considered 100% safe for all people under all circumstances. Think of drugs that have been released, and later removed from the market because something popped up long term, that was unknown during trials.
Agreed. Just to add that phase 4 clinical study happens for every medicinal product, not just for those authorised for emergency use. Phase 4 is basically a code-name for post-launch surveillance and monitoring (for the very reason you mentioned above).

Part of the reason I have concerns about ADE is that prior research into vaccines for SARS and MERs found ADE in the animal trials and those vaccines were scrapped. With the C0VlD VAXCClNE these animal trials were mostly eliminated. Here is a paper that references some prior studies of ADE with SARS/MERS.

Two Different Antibody-Dependent Enhancement (ADE) Risks for SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies
This is a quote from the summary at the end, as I assume most people don’t want to wade through a long technical research paper:

“Given past data on multiple SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV VAXCClNE efforts have failed due to ADE in animal models (75, 81), it is reasonable to hypothesize a similar ADE risk for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and vaccines.”
Don't worry, I'm reading the papers you're referencing. So this one hypothesises many things, including a possibility of ADE during a second infection caused by the antibodies from the first natural infection (so no vax involved at all). I mean, we can worry about lots of different scenarios... A thin line between hypothesising in a scientific journal and doomposting though. ;)

So it’s not that I have concerns out of the blue, it’s that there is past history of ADE with past attempts at VAXCClNE production. They have been working on these vaccines for a decade+, and now we develop and test a VAXCClNE in 9 months and deem it safe and effective.
Here's my longer comment about that (but doesn't explicitly talk about ADE). We've had a decade to figure out how to at least try to avoid stepping on the ADE landmine.

However, now they have changed their tune. No one is taking about it being 95% effective in preventing illness now. They have shifted the goal posts to it preventing serious illness when people get sick.
Not a fan of "us vs them" arguments. My sources have always claimed effectiveness would likely drop for other variants, so I'm not surprised. It's like with flu that you never know if you can hit the right mix each year (hence 40%-60% effectiveness). Does this whole mess, flux and uncertainty around us help in communication between different sides of the barricade? Nope.

The point being, with a typical VAXCClNE we would have known how effective, how long, and what effective meant. We didn’t and we still don’t. So if we don’t even know the dynamics of how effective it is, optimal dosing, need for boosters, etc….then how can you possibly know about safety and long term effects like ADE.

Simply put you cannot, and there is concerning history of failure in prior VAXCClNE development and concerning trends in vaxinated people and infection that were not expected.

Hopefully safety is proven long term with these vaccines, and no ADE is ever found. But my bias is caution towards them for now until we have the history and experience to reasonably answer some of these unknown questions.
Acknowledged. I like this argument and I share the concern. My risk appetite (or risk-benefit assessment) is slightly different. And that's why it's great to read a different opinion to balance/notice my own biases.

Thanks for not fearmongering (too much lol) or doomposting. I often feel we do it too much (ridiculing our other arguments in the process) only because we feel the other side produces more nonsense.

I like the spot from where all these things make sense. Too bad the divide is unavoidable. It's because it boils down to the conflict between the feeling of freedom vs the feeling of safety (both illusory lol).
 

ivmarkov1992@gma

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I was just thinking the same thing, the level of disdain and hatred for world governments is at an all time high and people are getting fed up, from AU, to CAN, to Malyasia, to Italy, to the US -- people are tired of being managed like cattle.

When people say they want to leave, I say, where? Georgia? Estonia? Costa Rica? Mexico?

Who appreciates entrepreneurs and job providers?

Right now it appears the lessor-developed countries have more appeal.
I can only speak from my point of view as an entrepreneur in Croatia. Croatia is a country of great opportunities for foreign investors. Our biggest problem is the government and all the nonsense laws. But if you have a guy who knows the system he will get you from point A to point B very fast ( all legal of course).
 

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