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The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

Jon L

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The problem with this test will be a false negative rate. To do the test correctly, you need to swab the back of the throat, like all the way past the dangly thing (uvula). Then you need to test the nasopharynx, imagine pushing a q-tip into your nose until you hit the very back.

how many people can do that? I can tell you in medical school doing it to other people was hard, I can’t imagine trying to swab yourself if you don’t have medical experience.

hence the concern for lots of false negatives from insufficient samples.
The Department of State advises U.S. citizens to avoid all international travel due to the global impact of C0VlD-19, In countries where commercial departure options remain available, U.S. citizens who live in the United States should arrange for immediate return to the United States, unless they are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period. U.S. citizens who live abroad should avoid all international travel.

That is official from the state department. Not surprising in the slightest, i’ve been saying this for probably 10 days. We have addressed that many times in our podcast.

next will be interstate travel restriction. Our state’s are like countries in Europe. It’s painfully obvious where we are going if you just watch Italy and Spain.

Be safe y’all.
I think you need to name your show the ***DR.*** Gilman Wolsey Podcast. There are a ton of cranks out there. Armchair epidemiologists who know enough to be dangerous. (I'm one of them, though I try to keep my theorizing to myself, mostly). Those two little letters in front would alert people that you know what you're talking about...
 
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ChrisV

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I found this 'good news' list on Snopes, who says the list is true:

A viral list notes numerous "good news" items related to the fight against the C0VlD-19 coronavirus disease pandemic.

31343
How about some good news?

– China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.

– Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.

– Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.

– A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from C0VlD-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.

– Apple reopens all 42 china stores,

– Cleveland Clinic developed a C0VlD-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.

– Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.

– Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.

– Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.

– 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.

– A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in C0VlD-19 research.

– A San Diego biotech company is developing a C0VlD-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.

– Tulsa County’s first positive C0VlD-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.

– All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.

– Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by C0VlD-19.
 

MoneyDoc

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I found this 'good news' list on Snopes, who says the list is true:

A viral list notes numerous "good news" items related to the fight against the C0VlD-19 coronavirus disease pandemic.

View attachment 31343
How about some good news?

– China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.

– Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.

– Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.

– A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from C0VlD-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.

– Apple reopens all 42 china stores,

– Cleveland Clinic developed a C0VlD-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.

– Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.

– Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.

– Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.

– 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.

– A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in C0VlD-19 research.

– A San Diego biotech company is developing a C0VlD-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.

– Tulsa County’s first positive C0VlD-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.

– All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.

– Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by C0VlD-19.
Everything about China is true.

I have personal friends there, business partners, and factories that I deal with on a monthly basis. Everyone is telling me the same thing. New cases are EXTREMELY low.

With that said, shipping costs are going to skyrocket next week for Chinese exports according to one of the factories I deal with regularly. They have too much volume right now.
 

Rabby

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Not sure if anyone has had this happen yet... But our governor (Pennsylvania) just ordered all "non life-sustaining" businesses to close. This includes:
  • Lots of manufacturing facilities
  • All residential/non-residential construction
  • Legal services, tax/accounting services, etc.
  • And much more
Going to be a lot of layoffs... Not sure if other states are doing this yet, but if they do we're going to have some problems.

That's truly apocalyptic.
 
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Bearcorp

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With that said, shipping costs are going to skyrocket next week for Chinese exports according to one of the factories I deal with regularly. They have too much volume right now.

Someone on here mentioned their shipping costs had skyrocketed in receiving goods from China a few weeks ago, we have a few orders that will hopefully be shipped next week, we're looking at paying double the normal cost, and by the time it comes it could be more to guarantee that they send it.
 

MoneyDoc

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By the way, ZERO domestic cases in China as of today.

Just by basic trending, USA and Canada should be the same by end of April.

If you feel even slightly sick, STAY HOME. We should get through this faster than most people think.
 
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Ernman

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Also wanted to note that the fact that Chinese workers who were out of work for 2+ months managed to get through this in tact is that their national personal savings rate is 33%, while in the US we're closer to 7% personal savings rate.

Feeling extremely grateful that I save about 50-60% of my income and personally can afford a pay cut to weather this storm.
This is a really important point that, unfortunately, I feel will not get enough air time in the U.S. Worse yet, I fear the government actions to soften this economic blow are only going to reinforce the lack of responsibility most U.S. citizens have with regards to personal savings and being prepared for a rainy day.
 
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Suzanne Bazemore

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Is it possible, that due to these virus, where people will realize the benefit of being with your family and community, while simultaneously being able to study/work online, could lead to electronic-stone age, where small communities will form, like a small tribes, less people driving around, more inside-community agriculture to produce vegetables and fruits, therefore much fulfilled life for everyone.

I almost forgot we still had stars in the sky.
My husband and I are both working from home, but he was on a very important call earlier today, so my daughter and I took her dog for a walk behind the high school, where I had seen a small patch of bluebonnets the other day. While trying to increase our time away from home, we let her dog play in a field, and I laid in the grass and just looked up at the clouds. I haven't done that in decades. It was so peaceful.
 

Ernman

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I’ve been working in London for about a month or so. I’ve had the virus for 6-7 days now (not counting incubation). I’ve been lucky and the symptoms have been mild to the point where I have worked through them (I’m basically working on my own). I think a lot of people have it already in London. The media are emphasising a dry cough and fever but just because you don’t have those symptoms doesn’t mean you don’t have it.

I caught it off a friend who has been moderately ill. Not enough to be in hospital but suffered at home. His wife works in a local school (who’s staff pretty much all have had persistent coughs for weeks) and he has 2 children (in another school I believe). She was ill too.

We have been to and fro with ‘is it or isn’t it’ for days now but yesterday he discovered he had lost his sense of smell and taste (which is another documented side effect).

For the vast majority it will be a minor annoyance, no more. However obviously life and death for others.

I’m going to miss my eldest Son’s wedding on Saturday. That for me personally is the worst thing so far about this bloody virus.
Have you been tested or is the determination being made on symptoms only? Just curious. Prayers are with you man.
 

Ernman

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Grocery stores and lots of places near me are offering 'senior hours' where seniors can shop and not be overwhelmed with other people. Lots of social good is being done in my community. Hope it continues after we're past this.
I just heard Publix is doing that he in NE FL.
 
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GoodluckChuck

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By the way, ZERO domestic cases in China as of today.

Just by basic trending, USA and Canada should be the same by end of April.

If you feel even slightly sick, STAY HOME. We should get through this faster than most people think.

Did they test everyone in china? If you stop testing, you get zero confirmed cases.

I'm just trying to point out that if the virus is spread by people without symptoms then this number doesn't mean much.
 

GIlman

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I think you need to name your show the ***DR.*** Gilman Wolsey Podcast. There are a ton of cranks out there. Armchair epidemiologists who know enough to be dangerous. (I'm one of them, though I try to keep my theorizing to myself, mostly). Those two little letters in front would alert people that you know what you're talking about...

that’s true. I guess it was just my personality to have the validity of my arguments and analysis stand on their own without appealing to authority of outing a Dr. by my name. But you are probably right that it would help give people more confidence what I am saying.
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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Did they test everyone in china? If you stop testing, you get zero confirmed cases.

I'm just trying to point out that if the virus is spread by people without symptoms then this number doesn't mean much.
I've heard different anecdotes from there being zero cases to total lockdown apocalypse. Someone said everyone who is sick is just dying at home due to the lockdown.

China was burning thousands of bodies a day not too long ago, seems weird to have zero new cases now.

Consider the fact that people might not want to speak out negatively against the government's efforts, or else risk being disappeared...

A few thoughts though:

1. China is lying and the virus is worse than we think = we're screwed.
2. China is telling the truth, but complete authoritarian lockdown is necessary to stop it = we're screwed.
3. China was able to mobilize and build massive hospitals to treat the infected. The US is vastly underprepared (number of hospitals, ventilators, testing, workers, etc)
 
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MoneyDoc

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I've heard different anecdotes from there being zero cases to total lockdown apocalypse. Someone said everyone who is sick is just dying at home due to the lockdown.

China was burning thousands of bodies a day not too long ago, seems weird to have zero new cases now.

Consider the fact that people might not want to speak out negatively against the government's efforts, or else risk being disappeared...

Two thoughts though:

1. China is lying and the virus is worse than we think = we're screwed.
2. China is telling the truth, but complete authoritarian lockdown is necessary to stop it = we're screwed.
I don't think so. If you feel sick, stay home. If everyone follows that, no need for an entire lockdown.

Why can't we once think positive and say "well I hope it ends soon" instead of always questioning the positive stories and facts? Notice how every headline in the media is negative? If only more people understood...

At times like this, don't add to your anxiety. Think positive for once. And I'm not talking about you specifically, I'm just saying in general.

This thread is turning out worse than the media.

Anyways good luck to everyone. I need to leave this thread, again... (I'll be back in a month or two).
 
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Ernman

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I read that, and understood it was an assumption (they clearly state that), but the only way for that assumption to be changed is for it to be wrong. In other words we will only know it is wrong in hindsight. The truth is only known as a historical context.

By their very nature all predictions of the future are heavily steeped in assumptions. But assumptions are made for a reason, because with the knowledge we have today it is the most plausible conclusion. I’m not assuming all assumptions or predictions will play out, but if that is their assumption at the moment based on what we know, it is still of great concern.

If you read my past posts, I had already arrived at much the same conclusions more or less. I had said minimum quarantine would have to be 6-8 weeks, and even then I didn’t know how we bring people out of quarantine without starting another wave of infection. That’s what all the available data I see points to.

p.s. after you read it please give us your assessment since you are the expert reading this type of document, I’m curious what your view is.
Sorry it took me a while to respond. It's been a very busy day and I'm catching up with this thread again. Having studied the plan, I'm more comfortable that the U.S. government (combined federal, state, local, tribal and territorial) can get us through this...IF they follow the plan. This is a high level plan, so details on how certain things will be accomplished are not included. This plan mostly serves to explain how Federal and SLTT (State, Local, Tribal and Territorial) will align, coordinate action, responsibilities, etc. It also tells us what events will trigger recommendations to take greater actions and what those actions may be.

Unfortunately, but not at all unexpected, this plan references activities from other related plans. Without those plans it's hard to fully understand what is going on. But it does provide a good sense of high level activities planed and what will cause them to go into action.

I have two primary concerns with this plan. First and foremost, is that this plan and the other relevant/related plans will overwhelm some of the SLTT government teams. They likely don't have people well versed in these plans and will be trying to understand this planning language/process at the same time they're trying to take action. This can lead to situations where it seems one group, say a state, seems to be getting more attention and special treatment because they've been able to crack the planning nut. Second, and I apologize that this will sound political, is the reporting that Jared Kushner is running a shadow COVID task force. IF this is true, there is great potential for confusion at a minimum and complete failure as worse case. There can only be ONE task force with one chain of command. This plan makes it very clear who is in charge, who reports to who, levels of relationships, etc. Again, I don't mean to sound political, I'm just pointing out a disconnect between this plan and what we're hearing in the news.

A word on assumptions in these plans. The task force will have established what, in the military, we called a battle rhythm, a cycle of acting, assessing and adjusting as this crisis unfolds. At some regular interval, the assumptions will be re-vetted. Updating assumptions, especially with facts, can have significant impacts to the plan. The major elements of the plan such as desired end states will not likely change, but actions and triggers along the way may.
 
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Silverfox148

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Don't you think it's somewhat crazy that not everybody is like that? I mean, how could you possibly not "push hard", enjoy nature, go after big goals, while you only live once.
Hard to be humble among so many irrational people.

I personally do think it is crazy, especially when you truly study the lives of people who are following the "American script" you find a trail of broken homes, addictions, dysfunction, consumerism and frankly a lot of pain hidden underneath the social media/social facade the everyday American person puts on. A lot of anxiety there which I don't believe is an accident as it's the major component in US advertising. I say this as I used to be one of the above, hell I even won competitions/contents for current events/politics etc. It was all bullshit for me anyway.

It is my hope that this crisis spawns a rethink of how the everyday American lives their life.
 

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I have a toothe-ache which I believe is a cavity. The dentist I was going to go to, is closed this week, but might be taking emergency visits next week. The pain is on the top in the back, and is tweaking a nerve that messes with my right eye. Hopefully it does not get more infected and cause a fever. I have no idea how bad getting a tooth drilled and taking anti-biotics would be in the middle of a pandemic.

I guess I will wait until Monday, see how the pain is, and call the dentist. I'm pretty sure it isn't going to magically get better. Other than having a probably cavity, I could spend months without seeing a soul. I'm not sure if it would be better to go see a dentist *sooner* or *later*. I'm really hoping that Chloroquine drug works, since having a dentist breathing on me seems super dangerous.
 

ShamanKing

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I have a toothe-ache which I believe is a cavity. The dentist I was going to go to, is closed this week, but might be taking emergency visits next week. The pain is on the top in the back, and is tweaking a nerve that messes with my right eye. Hopefully it does not get more infected and cause a fever. I have no idea how bad getting a tooth drilled and taking anti-biotics would be in the middle of a pandemic.

I guess I will wait until Monday, see how the pain is, and call the dentist. I'm pretty sure it isn't going to magically get better. Other than having a probably cavity, I could spend months without seeing a soul. I'm not sure if it would be better to go see a dentist *sooner* or *later*. I'm really hoping that Chloroquine drug works, since having a dentist breathing on me seems super dangerous.

Are you in the US? The dental location I use to be with is still open.
BTW sounds more than just a cavity in my opinion.
 
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loop101

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Are you in the US? The dental location I use to be with is still open.
BTW sounds more than just a cavity in my opinion.

I've had the tweaked eye from a cavity before, I think the nerve in the tooth runs past the eye, or something like that. I'm in the US. I should make it until Monday, it's mostly a stinging feeling. The upper teeth are in your head, so an infection spreading from there is worse than an infection in your jaw. Maybe I could get antibiotics and delay dealing with it for a few weeks while the virus stuff plays out.
 

ShamanKing

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I've had the tweaked eye from a cavity before, I think the nerve in the tooth runs past the eye, or something like that. I'm in the US. I should make it until Monday, it's mostly a stinging feeling. The upper teeth are in your head, so an infection spreading from there is worse than an infection in your jaw. Maybe I could get antibiotics and delay dealing with it for a few weeks while the virus stuff plays out.

I see. Hopefully its bearable.
 

Jon L

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that’s true. I guess it was just my personality to have the validity of my arguments and analysis stand on their own without appealing to authority of outing a Dr. by my name. But you are probably right that it would help give people more confidence what I am saying.
Yeah I agree with you ... this is marketing though. The good ideas come after you grab people's attention.


In my field, custom software, good ideas rule the day.. If you're 20 and have a great idea, you're listened to. If you're 40 and have a bad idea, you're shown how your idea is bad. Its funny because since that's my experience, I expect other fields to be the same. Your field, for example, is so hierarchical its ridiculous. Unless you're a PhD with additional years of experience, you're looked down on.

*rant mode on* ... I was talking with a doctor I know about covid 19 a month ago. I said that I thought that we were in for it, and that it didn't make sense that some people were saying that we'd be able to contain it. I based this on a bunch of stuff, but mainly my ability to read English and understand an exponential graph, an R0 number and a few basics of what I saw going on in China. She shot me down saying, 'No. Epidemiology is complex. This will be another SARS outbreak.' With no further debate allowed. I shut up, but thought to myself, 'we will see about that...' ... and so we did. * rant mode off * (I just had to get that off my chest and express it to someone who would understand.)
 
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EVMaso

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I have a toothe-ache which I believe is a cavity. The dentist I was going to go to, is closed this week, but might be taking emergency visits next week. The pain is on the top in the back, and is tweaking a nerve that messes with my right eye. Hopefully it does not get more infected and cause a fever. I have no idea how bad getting a tooth drilled and taking anti-biotics would be in the middle of a pandemic.

I guess I will wait until Monday, see how the pain is, and call the dentist. I'm pretty sure it isn't going to magically get better. Other than having a probably cavity, I could spend months without seeing a soul. I'm not sure if it would be better to go see a dentist *sooner* or *later*. I'm really hoping that Chloroquine drug works, since having a dentist breathing on me seems super dangerous.

When I was a child I had a tooth ache in my upper jaw. It was in the back. It was my wisdom tooth! It was growing at a weird angle or something like that, and it got infected.

Anyways being a dumb kid I ignored it for a long time. Then one day, on the way to a buffet dinner no less, my jaw locked up AND I LITERALLY COULD NOT OPEN MY MOUTH. It turns out the infection got so bad that it swelled up and messed with the joint of my jaw. The only way I could open my mouth WAS TO PHYSICALLY SHIFT MY JAW TO THE SIDE WITH MY HANDS SO IT COULD OPEN. When I closed it, I could hear a *click* like some locking pin was reset back into place. Chewing was a pain, but it was the only way I could eat until I could get it fixed. When I did get it fixed, the situation was so bad I had to go to a specialist dentist and they had to CRACK THE WISDOM TOOTH INTO PIECES AND PULL OUT THE BITS.

Anyways my point is that a tooth ailment that is somehow tweaking with your eye? If I was you, I would drive as far as I need to go and bang on as many doors as possible to get that thing checked out ASAP. I would suit up in bubonic plague gear if necessary. It's a tough time to do so with the virus stuff, but having something that is messing with your eye seems more pressing. Good luck with whatever it is and I hope it's nothing too serious.
 

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Typical.


A wealthy Georgia senator is reportedly the second member of Congress to have dumped massive shares of stocks following a private, chamber-wide meeting on the new coronavirus.

Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA), whose husband is the chairman and CEO of the New York Stock Exchange, began selling off more than a million dollars in stocks on the same day as the closed-door Senate meeting on Friday, Jan. 24, reports The Daily Beast.

Over the next three weeks, through Feb. 14, Loeffler made 27 sales worth between $1,275,000 and $3,100,000, before the market nosedived and her holdings’ values tanked.

She also purchased stocks on Feb. 14 from two work-from-home related companies Citrix, which specializes in teleworking software, and another tech frim, Oracle, according to the report.
 

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I've had the tweaked eye from a cavity before, I think the nerve in the tooth runs past the eye, or something like that. I'm in the US. I should make it until Monday, it's mostly a stinging feeling. The upper teeth are in your head, so an infection spreading from there is worse than an infection in your jaw. Maybe I could get antibiotics and delay dealing with it for a few weeks while the virus stuff plays out.

My heart goes out to you. I won’t explain what dental tortures I’ve endured to learn this bit of awesomeness but trust me.. I know just the thing though to fix it.
If you go to the natural grocery store and get clove bud oil or just a regular grocery stores and get ground cloves from the spice aisle and mix a bit in olive oil.. you will have THE strongest tooth numbing agent in the world. Put a tiny TINY amount on a q-tip and apply directly to the gum or tooth that hurts. It will work. Immediately.

Now for the bad part. Continued use of this remedy kills the exposed/aggravated/affected dental nerve completely so if you use this remedy for longer than a year you won’t be able to save the tooth but you will be able to eat without any pain or eye twitching. Clove oil is SUPER strong at killing infections too so unless you have a weird abscess all the way up inside your jaw you should be ok using this until you get to the dentist.
 
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loop101

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I have a ton of respect for Dr Ron Paul. I hadn't seen anything by him lately, so I was pretty shocked to see he thinks COVID19 is basically a hoax. There doesn't seem to be any way of reconcilling his views and Dr Fauci's views. Listening to Paul, it seems that either he is insane, or Fauci is evil.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYH0LskZWVg
 

MattR82

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Sad to hear that. A friend is cancelling a wedding he spent months and tons of money preparing for.

Better safe than sorry.
So he lost all deposits and they wouldn't move them to a postponement date?
The destination wedding planners I know in Bali and their vendors are helping people postpone while letting them move/keep their deposits.
 

Jmad97

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any body else here work in the medical field? I’d be curious to see how other 911 systems and hospitals are implementing protocols and triage systems.

I work as an AEMT or EMT-Intermediate in the 911 system as a first responder and at 1 of our 3 core hospitals in the ER. Here’s what I have been experiencing. I have been picking up massive amounts of overtime working 13 to 24hr shifts and the flow of patients is ridiculous. Hospital status is currently code black (meaning no available beds anywhere) which is killing the ER and AMBULANCE flow to respond to calls and new patients. we are at critical levels for N95 respirators state wide. I come in contact with multiple patients an hour and I cannot get one... my current PPE is a anti fog surgical mask that ties on back (the elastic masks are rubbing my ears raw) and I have a set of safety style glasses for my eye protection. My wrists have developed a slight rash from the amount of gloves that I am taking on and off. My sleep schedule is very sporadic. I’m on call pretty much 24/7 now to respond. I am not overly afraid of this virus compared to others I can potentially come into contact with any day. I am concerned with other people’s response to the media on this virus. I have seen greed, selfishness, evil, panic on multiple calls. I have noticed a shift in mindset, almost to a primitive predator/prey behavior. The minute the virus hit my city, it seems people think they have a high potential to die which flicks the switch to where their life is instantly more important than anyone’s because their goal is to survive and they think they could die here. So panic is immensely spread through that thought process. In my training and when I was new to EMS when you PANIC on a high acuity, high stress scene YOU MAKE MISTAKES. the current panic mistakes being made in the “fight or flight” response has been people refusing to think this is an issue of any type and refuse to pause their lives if they are sick because they are selfish. With the fight response I’ve seen people enact violence (shoot, fight, steal) for people coughing in public and for getting daily supplies or as simple as they had the means and opportunity. If your afraid of the current events that’s OK. Don’t panic and flip the “primitive” mindset switch. If your not afraid at all that’s OK just don’t be oblivious to the point where you become panicked due to lack of awareness if this becomes worse.
 
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Lex DeVille

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*Bass Pro Shop*
"Great News! Part of your order for ammo is on its way!"

*Me*
"That's great news?"

1 Day Later

*Bass Pro Shop*
"Our apologies! Part of your order has been delayed. If you don't receive your ammo in 60 days, your order will be cancelled."

*Bass Pro Shop* (tapping fingers with evil grin and whispering under breath)
In 60 days the world will end, but at least we got his money muahahaha!
 

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