The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[MJ DeMarco]

 

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[Dwight Schrute]

Industrial. Sized. Paper. Towel. Rolls.

There's no lack of toilet paper, only a lack of imagination

 

[G-Man]

The gym is a ghost town right now - guessing it has something to do with corona. Thought about staying home, then it occurred to me: I'm not certain what my probability of getting coronavirus and dying from it is, but I know that if I continue to be an overweight cigar smoker for another 10-20 years, my probability of being killed by heart disease, or diabetes, or some cancer is approximately 100%.

Firmly believe in having extra food, water, TP, hand sanitizer etc in the house, but this is also a good time to reflect on whether we're taking active measures to protect ourselves from the things that kill most Americans every year.

EDIT: Hope it's clear I'm not treating corona and other killers as mutually exclusive. Really hate the "it doesn't kill as many people as heart disease" argument, as though one comes at the expense of the other, like people will start eating fast food and not exercising just because they bought extra clorox and a face mask.

 

[Rivoli]

I still see people talking about sub 5% death rates. Such rates are based on a number of things. First of all, it's mainly coming from China, which has the most reported cases. The Chinese government is not known for their openness and honesty.

Second of all, it reports deaths as a percentage of all current cases. But with something this new and growing exponentially, deaths (and recoveries) will always trail behind the total cases. If you calculate it in that manner, you can say the death rate is 5% (463 / 9172). But with the same logic, you can also say that the recovery rate is only 8% (724 / 9172). I thin it's too early to make such calculations, or at least to base our conclusions only on these numbers. It's also important to look at deaths/recoveries as a percentage of closes cases, see below:
View attachment 30953
Source: Italy Coronavirus: 9,172 Cases and 463 Deaths - Worldometer

I'm not saying death rate will be 39% in the end. But I am saying that it's too early to say anything conclusive about this yet. And in any case where the health of you and your family is at risk, I like to err to the side of caution.

Also, check out this Twitter thread from a Italian ICU physician in Bergamo. I am worried by what she says, but I fully agree with her conclusion: "We don't have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort? "

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1236933818654896129

View: https://twitter.com/silviast9/status/1236933818654896129

panic has a cost my friend
when people stop shopping
and factories and stores start laying people off
people lose their houses
people go homeless
children go hungry

 

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[Vigilante]

panic has a cost my friend
when people stop shopping
and factories and stores start laying people off
people lose their houses
people go homeless
children go hungry

I think you need to go get some fresh air and stop posting for a bit. A little break would do you good. Maybe go to the store.

 

[Thoelt53]

panic has a cost my friend
when people stop shopping
and factories and stores start laying people off
people lose their houses
people go homeless
children go hungry

This is the same as “SARS-CoV-2 is going to kill us all and we’re all gonna die and it’s going to be the worst ever,” except insert your fear of a depression instead.

The bottom line is still the same. Be prepared for anything. And don’t panic.

Simple.

You’re panicked about a depression, meanwhile bashing people who are worried about their health and the health of loved ones.

Who is bashing you?

 

[Rivoli]

This is the same as “SARS-CoV-2 is going to kill us all and we’re all gonna die and it’s going to be the worst ever,” except insert your fear of a depression instead.

The bottom line is still the same. Be prepared for anything. And don’t panic.

Simple.

You’re panicked about a depression, meanwhile bashing people who are worried about their health and the health of loved ones.

Who is bashing you?

Exactly. We agree. Don’t panic, because this is a nothingburger. It will be over in 60 days. Screen cap this.

 

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[Sander]

Few hours ago our national health department reported 156 confirmed cases in Denmark.

Now, only a few hours later, it's 262 confirmed cases. Few days ago it was around 30.

 

[BlindSide]

Exactly. We agree. Don’t panic, because this is a nothingburger. It will be over in 60 days. Screen cap this.

You care more about screen caps than peoples families dying.

Im shocked by your responses in this.

 

[Rivoli]

You care more about screen caps than peoples families dying.

Im shocked by your responses in this.

In Italy, average age of death from the virus is 81. Life expectancy In Italy normally? 82. These people were dying already dude. I hate to break it to you.

I don’t think it’s great thousands of businesses are going to go bankrupt in the United States because a panic.

 

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[lowtek]

In Italy, average age of death is 81. Life expectancy In Italy normally? 82. These people were dying already dude. I hate to break it to you.

I don’t think it’s great thousands of businesses are going to go bankrupt in the United States because a panic.

Man, you really are dense.

Businesses aren't going to go bankrupt because of a "panic".

Businesses are going to go bankrupt because there is a highly infectious virus sweeping the globe and about 15% of the people that get it are going to get seriously ill, and 5% are going to require intensive care. That's 20% of the infected that are going to be incapable of playing into the ponzi scheme that masquerades as a modern economy. I'm sorry if that inconveniences your dream of skating across a lake of gold coins Scrooge McDuck style, but the wave of misery that is about to befall us is unprecedented in modern times.

Furthermore, it's not panic to not want to end up in the freaking intensive care unit, or to end up dangerously ill with pneumonia for a couple weeks. It's common sense.

Sure, just a few percent will die. And many of them will be elderly. But that's OK, because **** old people am i right? It's not like any of them contribute anything to society. They're just a burden to everyone around them.

At first I thought you were just a troll, or maybe even a cointel pro, but now I know you're a sociopath.

 

[Rivoli]

Man, you really are dense.

Businesses aren't going to go bankrupt because of a "panic".

Businesses are going to go bankrupt because there is a highly infectious virus sweeping the globe and about 15% of the people that get it are going to get seriously ill, and 5% are going to require intensive care. That's 20% of the infected that are going to be incapable of playing into the ponzi scheme that masquerades as a modern economy. I'm sorry if that inconveniences your dream of skating across a lake of gold coins Scrooge McDuck style, but the wave of misery that is about to befall us is unprecedented in modern times.

Furthermore, it's not panic to not want to end up in the freaking intensive care unit, or to end up dangerously ill with pneumonia for a couple weeks. It's common sense.

Sure, just a few percent will die. And many of them will be elderly. But that's OK, because **** old people am i right? It's not like any of them contribute anything to society. They're just a burden to everyone around them.

At first I thought you were just a troll, or maybe even a cointel pro, but now I know you're a sociopath.

If people just wash their hands, cough into elbow, and live as normal according to the cdc, we will be fine.

fauci literally said yesterday if youre a young healthy person, it’s fine to go on a cruise. You’re making up a phony scare. Is fauci now a liar?

 

[GIlman]

If people just wash their hands, cough into elbow, and live as normal according to the cdc, we will be fine.

fauci literally said yesterday if youre a young healthy person, it’s fine to go on a cruise. You’re making up a phony scare. Is fauci now a liar?

Again, cite your sources. You previously said the CDC stated a death rate as low as 0.1%, which turned out to be HHS (a political organization), and directly accountable to the president. Think they might have a reason to minimize this.

We are big trump supporters, MAGA, but on this one think I think he has fumbled the public relations side of things. His actions and agency actions speak of a much greater concern than his words do.

As an aside, I’ve spoken to my 18 and 23 year old children and their friends about this. Zero concern just like you. When I speak to other medical professionals they are extremely concerned. I hang out with this type of people all day every day. When it comes down to it I’m going to base my opinions on the words and concerns of experienced people not inexperienced young people.

One other thing, this is not the flu. It’s like saying a cat is a dog because they are both house pets. These are totally different species of virus. They attack the lungs in very different ways with very different patterns. Tuberculosis is also a respiratory infection, it makes no more sense to call CV the flu than to call tuberculosis the flu!!

 

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[Rivoli]

Again, cite your sources. You previously said the CDC stated a death rate as low as 0.1%, which turned out to be HHS (a political organization), and directly accountable to the president.

we are big trump supporters, but on this one think I think he has fumbled the public relations side of things. His actions and agency actions speak of a much greater concern than his words do.

fauci has said that at almost every press conference. Go on periscope and follow the White House and just fast forward to his points.

he said yesterday toward the end that it’s perfectly ok to go on CRUISES if you are not an elderly person with an underlying condition.

 

[Rivoli]

Again, cite your sources. You previously said the CDC stated a death rate as low as 0.1%, which turned out to be HHS (a political organization), and directly accountable to the president. Think they might have a reason to minimize this.

We are big trump supporters, MAGA, but on this one think I think he has fumbled the public relations side of things. His actions and agency actions speak of a much greater concern than his words do.

that guy from HHS said death rate was 0.1 to 1% when people on this thread were saying it was 4%. He ended up being right. South Korea has tested so many people and found its 0.6%, and they have an older society than US. We are going to be fine.

I’m betting $10k in options in the next week or so, that this blows over by summer. but thanks to all the people who don’t know how to look at something critically, the consumer will be diminished because they are scared to go to target and we will be in recession

 

[GIlman]

that guy from HHS said death rate was 0.1 to 1% when people on this thread were saying it was 4%. He ended up being right. South Korea has tested so many people and found its 0.6%, and they have an older society than US. We are going to be fine.

I’m betting $10 in options in the next week or so, that this blows over by summer. but thanks to all the people who don’t know how to look at something critically, the consumer will be diminished because they are scared to go to target and we will be in recession

it’s very clear you don’t read and integrate anything people say. You keep spouting a death rate in Korea of 0.6%, which is patently misrepresented for reasons @JScott and myself have pointed out many times. I realize there is both positive and negative skew, but as I’ve said from the beginning based on past experiences the actual number was likely 1-2%. There is no reason to rearticulate here the reasoning as myself and others have said it multiple times already.

Still, looking at the death rate, you realize the mortality rate for people <50 has been about the typical death rate from flu? Young people rarely die from average flu, although there are variants of flu that can and does kill younger people. Young people are dying from CV at about what all people normally die from the flu, but is predominantly the elderly.

 

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[kgf]

Hi all,
Just a quick note from Northern Italy. We are shut, people have to stay home. The velocity of the contagion is embarrassing fast. The number of new cases is growing exponentially.
The only remedy is to avoid any contact amid people.
Hospitals do not have the number of intensive care places needed to face the emergency.
My advise: get food, water, ffp3 masks, gloves, and stay at home.
Seriously, stay at home.
Good luck

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

fauci has said that at almost every press conference. Go on periscope and follow the White House and just fast forward to his points.

he said yesterday toward the end that it’s perfectly ok to go on CRUISES if you are not an elderly person with an underlying condition.

If you truly believe that HHS is giving sound advice, why don't you book a 7-day Caribbean cruise and go on it next week? Super cheap, unlimited food, and intermittent wi-fi. Then, in two weeks, you can prove us all wrong and prove the HHS statements right.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Anyone have a better place for CV reporting?

Anyone notice how this website...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com

...downgraded reported to just the state level?? That sucks, as if more obscure data is better to make decisions. GMAFB.

 

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[Inimitable]

it’s very clear you don’t read and integrate anything people say. You keep spouting a death rate in Korea of 0.6%, which is patently misrepresented for reasons @JScott and myself have pointed out many times. I realize there is both positive and negative skew, but as I’ve said from the beginning based on past experiences the actual number was likely 1-2%. There is no reason to rearticulate here the reasoning as myself and others have said it multiple times already.

Still, looking at the death rate, you realize the mortality rate for people <50 has been about the typical death rate from flu? Young people rarely die from average flu, although there are variants of flu that can and does kill younger people. Young people are dying from CV at about what all people normally die from the flu, but is predominantly the elderly.

Is the death rate really comparable to the flu for younger populations? I've never posted here before, but I've been following along on this thread. I'm terrified because I'm in my 30s, somewhat immunocompromised, and I'm currently 29 weeks pregnant. I need to go to the hospital in May for a c-section, and it would be dangerous for me to try to have a natural birth (and would almost certainly fail). I'm most terrified of contracting this in the hospital, not to mention my concerns for my newborn baby.

On top of that, my 5-year-old has asthma that is exacerbated by respiratory sicknesses. She has been hospitalized three times in the past year because of bronchiolitis that started with common colds. I'm scared for what this could do to her, given that she needed oxygen support and steroid injections just for simple infections.

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

Anyone have a better place for CV reporting?

Anyone notice how this website...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com

...downgraded reported to just the state level?? That sucks, as if more obscure data is better to make decisions. GMAFB.

You can set the reporting by country or by state/province. It is a tab below the left column.

I personally prefer the data presented from Coronavirus Update (Live): 118,347 Cases and 4,267 Deaths from C0VlD-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer since it is all sourced and easy to scan daily.

 

[Primeperiwinkle]

You are missing out on a perfectly clean rear after every poop and tons of savings on baby wipes.

People don't know what they want until you show it to them - Steve Jobs

I swear if you or anyone else shows a pic of their clean bum I’m leaving and never coming back.

 

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[• nikita •]

An empty gym is a wonderful change to the normally packed, full of resolutioners gym. I'll keep going until it closes. Hopefully it doesn't because I can't handle a month stuck at home with my family lol.

 

[biggeemac]

Anyone have a better place for CV reporting?

Anyone notice how this website...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com

...downgraded reported to just the state level?? That sucks, as if more obscure data is better to make decisions. GMAFB.

Is the death rate really comparable to the flu for younger populations? I've never posted here before, but I've been following along on this thread. I'm terrified because I'm in my 30s, somewhat immunocompromised, and I'm currently 29 weeks pregnant. I need to go to the hospital in May for a c-section, and it would be dangerous for me to try to have a natural birth (and would almost certainly fail). I'm most terrified of contracting this in the hospital, not to mention my concerns for my newborn baby.

On top of that, my 5-year-old has asthma that is exacerbated by respiratory sicknesses. She has been hospitalized three times in the past year because of bronchiolitis that started with common colds. I'm scared for what this could do to her, given that she needed oxygen support and steroid injections just for simple infections.

An empty gym is a wonderful change to the normally packed, full of resolutioners gym. I'll keep going until it closes. Hopefully it doesn't because I can't handle a month stuck at home with my family lol.

I am quite thankful that I lost my interest in living in large cities many years ago. I now live in a small city (50k). I imagine that once the shitshow starts, we will fare a bit better than the Seattles, the LA's, and basically any city with a 100k+ population in it. Who knows.....even our small city and hospital facilities could be overrun. But i'd rather take my chances here than in a metro.

I am anticipating that we will be another Italy. If it doesn't happen.....great. I'd rather be wrong on over-anticipation than under.

 

[Rivoli]

Is the death rate really comparable to the flu for younger populations? I've never posted here before, but I've been following along on this thread. I'm terrified because I'm in my 30s, somewhat immunocompromised, and I'm currently 29 weeks pregnant. I need to go to the hospital in May for a c-section, and it would be dangerous for me to try to have a natural birth (and would almost certainly fail). I'm most terrified of contracting this in the hospital, not to mention my concerns for my newborn baby.

On top of that, my 5-year-old has asthma that is exacerbated by respiratory sicknesses. She has been hospitalized three times in the past year because of bronchiolitis that started with common colds. I'm scared for what this could do to her, given that she needed oxygen support and steroid injections just for simple infections.

You need to be extra careful. You are exactly who can get hit the hardest by this virus.

the death rate for young HEALTHY people is comparable to the flu maybe 0.2% or less. But if you have a weak immune system you need to be careful.

i would pull my kid out of school with a dr’s note some how.

luckily the virus should dissipate with the normal flu season so should be ok by may

 

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[Rivoli]

I am quite thankful that I lost my interest in living in large cities many years ago. I now live in a small city (50k). I imagine that once the shitshow starts, we will fare a bit better than the Seattles, the LA's, and basically any city with a 100k+ population in it. Who knows.....even our small city and hospital facilities could be overrun. But i'd rather take my chances here than in a metro.

I am anticipating that we will be another Italy. If it doesn't happen.....great. I'd rather be wrong on over-anticipation than under.

Average age Italy: 47 years old
the average American is 10 years younger than Italy

 

[ZF Lee]

I swear if you or anyone else shows a pic of their clean bum I’m leaving and never coming back.

Spoiler: ;)

Yup, it's a peach

 

[Ubu_roi]

I''m posting here the decree that is now enforced all over Italy since today. I believe this may happen in other places in the next few weeks:

1) All public gatherings are strictly banned in public places or places open to the public.
2) All events and sport competitions are called off, except for closed doors international ones.
3) Practicing sport outdoor is permitted, on the condition that, always and in any case, people keep 1-meter distance.
4) All movements of people (goods are exempted) must be avoided other than “for documented work needs, emergencies, or health reasons.” Going back home is permitted.
5) Whoever has a body temperature higher than 37.5 °C is “strongly recommended” to stay home.
6) Who is in quarantine must stay home.
7) Companies should facilitate their employees with vacations or work leaves.
8) All ski resorts are closed.
9) All events – included cultural, recreational, sport, religious, and trade-fair events – are called off.
10) All activities in child-care centers, schools, and universities are called off.
11) All civil and religious ceremonies, funerals included, are called off.
12) Activities in bars and restaurants are permitted from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m., on the condition that, always and in any case, people remain at 1-meter distance.
13) All other commercial activities are permitted, on the condition that, always and in any case, people keep 1-meter distance.
14) At the weekend medium and big stores (such as shopping malls, supermarkets, and markets) will be closed.
15) All activities at gyms, sport centers, swimming pools, spas and health resorts, recreational and community centers are called off.
16) All driving license exams at Provincial Motor Vehicles Offices are called off.

 

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[• nikita •]

I am quite thankful that I lost my interest in living in large cities many years ago. I now live in a small city (50k). I imagine that once the shitshow starts, we will fare a bit better than the Seattles, the LA's, and basically any city with a 100k+ population in it. Who knows.....even our small city and hospital facilities could be overrun. But i'd rather take my chances here than in a metro.

I am anticipating that we will be another Italy. If it doesn't happen.....great. I'd rather be wrong on over-anticipation than under.

I'm genuinely considering moving to a town in Crete. I want to build a gym within my home, and stock up on meat that could last me for months. Sounds like heaven.

 

[• nikita •]

I''m posting here the decree that is now enforced all over Italy since today. I believe this may happen in other places in the next few weeks:

1) All public gatherings are strictly banned in public places or places open to the public.
2) All events and sport competitions are called off, except for closed doors international ones.
3) Practicing sport outdoor is permitted, on the condition that, always and in any case, people keep 1-meter distance.
4) All movements of people (goods are exempted) must be avoided other than “for documented work needs, emergencies, or health reasons.” Going back home is permitted.
5) Whoever has a body temperature higher than 37.5 °C is “strongly recommended” to stay home.
6) Who is in quarantine must stay home.
7) Companies should facilitate their employees with vacations or work leaves.
8) All ski resorts are closed.
9) All events – included cultural, recreational, sport, religious, and trade-fair events – are called off.
10) All activities in child-care centers, schools, and universities are called off.
11) All civil and religious ceremonies, funerals included, are called off.
12) Activities in bars and restaurants are permitted from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m., on the condition that, always and in any case, people remain at 1-meter distance.
13) All other commercial activities are permitted, on the condition that, always and in any case, people keep 1-meter distance.
14) At the weekend medium and big stores (such as shopping malls, supermarkets, and markets) will be closed.
15) All activities at gyms, sport centers, swimming pools, spas and health resorts, recreational and community centers are called off.
16) All driving license exams at Provincial Motor Vehicles Offices are called off.

And what happens if the quarantine period ends and the cases are still too high or growing?