Quit now, get a job, and why bother. Everything is luck.

[MJ DeMarco]

If you can manipulate probability, you can manipulate outcomes that ultimately will be perceived as luck.

Anyone who claims otherwise is a liar, or just plain ignorant.

And I won't let such ignorance run unchecked on this forum.

To simplify, if you had ONE chance to call a coin flip, your probability is 50%

If you had TWO chances, your probability moves to 75%.

The outcomes of those flips is neither good luck or bad luck -- it is simple probability.

That's fact. Indisputable mathematics.

Once again, luck is being used to justify one's lack of positive outcomes. It's being used as a crutch for quitters and low-achievers.

I write books that move unseen probabilities with the goal of shifting probabilities to induce better outcomes. Yes luck always plays a role whenever probabilities exist. But as an entrepreneur that buys into the Unscripted philosophy, our objective is different: We aim to move probability. 1 in 7 is better than 1 in 500 or 1 in 1,000,000 or 0 in {anything}.

And the sad fact is, most people operate their financial and business life on ZERO probability.

Make $45,000 as a teacher? I can predict with 100% absolute certainty (ZERO probability) that your chances of making $150,000 next year is EXACTLY ZERO. You can play Russian Roulette with these odds and be confident your head won't be blown off.

For the entrepreneur, probability isn't ZERO.

For some, yes, it still is a long shot, perhaps 1 in 500.

But for others, depending on the type of business, the industry, the need addressed, their persistence (hard work) their probability might be 1 in 7. In both instances, luck plays a role -- but one person SHIFTED the probabilities so "luck" actually has a mathematical probability. Test the system with 7 tries and all of sudden luck is rendered impotent.

Are you willing to play Russian Roulette with these newer, non-zero odds? Go ahead Brad, load the gun.

I wrote an extensive chapter on luck and probability in Unscripted . Clearly the folks in this thread screaming "luck!!!" haven't read it. Not surprising.

But predicts nothing.

LOL. Yea, it predicts nothing. Any more nonsense you can share? Perhaps a Naseem Taleeb quote? (Oh look at that, you've read some Taleeb just as I suspected. I have too.)

To radically simplify this statement so no one reads this train-wreck of a thread and decides "Oh why bother, luck is everything"...

1. Hard work gives you 2 chances to call a coin flip.
2. Average work gets you 1.
3. Laziness gets you 0.

Each has a different probability but I can easily predict who has the better chance. And I can also predict who I would bet on.

Luck has nothing to do with it, even if you get 2 chances to call the flip and still get it wrong.

Obviously reality is multi-variate and much more complicated, but just because the probabilities aren't so easily defined, doesn't mean they aren't there. The probabilities are there, just as every time you leave your house you have a small probability of getting killed in a car accident, say 1 in 1,000,000.

Drive 90mph in a 55 zone and you move probability. (1 in 500,000)
Drive drunk, you move probability. (1 in 100,000)
Drive thru 10 red lights, you move probability. (1 in 2)

Each ACTION shifts probability making events of "luck" (or bad luck) more probable.

Arguing otherwise is like arguing 2+2 doesn't = 4.

But no, we're all just rats in a cage subjected to the immutable laws of the fairy luck goddess.

Yea, OK.

Astounding that the folks in this thread screaming "luck luck luck!" have an incredible knack for ignoring probability.

And surely any evidence on how probability plays a role in "luck" will only result in a prompt "backfire effect" (see I can regurgitate cognitive biases too!)

Anyhow, anyone who needs an excuse to quit, this thread does wonders.

I mean seriously, why bother?

Everything is luck and I can't do nothing to change that!!

What a F*cking joke. Makes me wonder why some people are even here.

There are just factors out of your control that you need to fall into place. People don't like that fact and it it's hard to accept, but that's just life, and it's not personal.

No that's not life, that's YOUR life.

It's not about what you CANNOT control, but what you CAN...

You can control hard work.
You can control the industry (need, right time?) you work within.
You can control money-chasing vs value-adding.
You can control how many "tries" you input into the system.
You can control how you spend your time.
You can control where you live (right place? right time?)
You can control how your mind thinks, classifies events, etc.
You can control working in a system where zero probabilities are eliminated and positive EV bets made.

Each moves probability.

And finally...

You can control how your mind perceives luck, or how it perceives probability.

I've had enough of this crap thread, the perfect ammunition for people to quit because, well, "I'm just not lucky." Yea, I'm sure you're not.

In a lottery there is 1 winner and 999,999 million losers. That 1 person who wins did not get lucky anymore than the 999,999 people who lost got unlucky. It’s simple probability.

Sorry but I didn't build this forum to create a platform for people to promote their PROBABILITY LOWERING beliefs. You either believe or you don't. You either work to shift the odds, or you don't.

Thread closed. Thread title changed to reflect its true purpose and intent.

And @Brad S maybe you can try reading one of my books so I don't have to continually rebuke your posts with stuff I've already written and published. I won't hold my breath.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Just an FYI: I'm disappointed to say that Brad is no longer with us, not because of anything he said in this thread (or anything else prior, I generally enjoyed his contributions) but that he succumbed to the "Backfire effect" and had to post a scathing rebuttal where he attacked the forum and some of its members including myself.

Of course, no mention of probability manipulation, zero probability outcomes, coin flips, etc ...

BTW, this forum is a platform to ENCOURAGE your journey, which as highlighted in this thread, can be quite challenging. Reality shaping such as succeeding is hard and not as easy as advertised is acceptable dialogue.

But if you're here to consistently DISCOURAGE others, you will be removed. If you're here to validate YOUR WORLD VIEW about how you've failed and everything in life is random chance, how you can't change probability, and how we're all wasting our time, you will be removed.

My advice? Start your own forum and promote your own theology.

And who knows, maybe you'll get *lucky* like I did and reach a few million people with it.