Only for people who have been around for at least 2 recessions ! (Recession is coming!!!)

[jpanarra]

2.7 Million

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

2.7 Million

 

[OldFaithful]

Recessions come in cycles but it's not like you can plan for it

I agree with @CareCPA...I believe you can. I'm no financial expert, but I could see the 08/09 recession coming 'as plain as day'. I got out of stocks early and redirected my investments into cash & bonds. Why? I saw friends getting new houses they couldn't afford and realized "this is crazy...it can't last...the market is going to have to correct".

Basically, do the opposite of the media & the crowd.

We are currently in the second longest period in recent history without a recession in the US.

Excellent point!

What do you folks think will happen when the FED pushes interest rates up a notch?

 

[Joe Cassandra]

Interest rates are going to stay down for awhile because the stock market's inflated. Raising interest rates busts the stock market.

Special interest groups (think dudes like Buffett) need the market to stay up because at the first sign of a dip... fickle average joe investors are going to dump causing a nationwide panic. Special interest groups hold the chips in Congress if you're curious their role in this. Campaigning for a Congress seat is at its most expensive ever, thus special interest money.

Thus to prop up the markets, the central banks started buying stocks to add fuel to the fire. They're bidding up stocks. Banks hold very little gold, so they have nothing backing their paper.

At some point, the house of cards will collapse.

The cause of a collapse? Most likely an extraordinary geopolitical event [war, terrorist attack...] or a major bank collapse [one of the massive ones, WF, JPM, BOA]

Until then...enjoy the paper gains.

 

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[BlakeIC]

Sell lipstick or sell pizza. Both are recession proof and sales go up during downturns.

Car washes from what I read awhile ago when researching the business appeared to stay neutral throughout recessions.

 

[Sanj Modha]

This is a great thread. There's so much I don't know about everything which is why I check the FLF at least once a day!

 

[OldFaithful]

I could go into each in more detail

Please do, I'd love to hear your perspective.

 

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[Yoda]

I created a "Misery Portfolio" with a $10,000 investment in each.

Citibank (8264 shares / $2.14 Basis)
Bank of America (2695 shares / $3.71 Basis)
Las Vegas Sands (4587 shares / $2.18 Basis)
AIG (22635 shares / $.4418 basis)
American Airlines (3236 shares / $3.09 Basis)
Ford (5319 shares / $1.88 basis)
GM (4673 shares / $2.14 basis)

March 3rd, 2009
Total Value: $70,000

Not looking to poke holes on a clearly unbelievable pick of stocks, but how did that break out to 8,264 shares of Citibank? Stock split or something?

Furthermore, I'm more curious how you came up with them. Banks were pretty risky at the time, though the bailout made them less so, however Sands seemed even more speculative.

I actually followed SIRI for a while, and in early 2009 the stock was about $0.10 or so (though my mind says $0.07). I was in debt and had no cash (negative, actually). Just another reason to, as mentioned above, get your house in order, get liquid, and get ready to buy when you can.

 

[eliquid]

Recessions come in cycles but it's not like you can plan for it unless you're that genius off The Big Short who predicted 2008. It could be 10 or 20 years.

You can plan for it. It always comes.

Having a warchest of money is how you prep and be ready.

It's kinda like #2. You know it's coming but you don't know when exactly.. but it will come.

 

[OldFaithful]

These days (meaning the past couple years), I don't trust the publicly released jobs numbers. While I don't doubt unemployment is low, observation and gut feel tells me that employment trends are reversing. I recognize that my observation and gut are meaningless in the scheme of things, but in this case, the data I'm seeing doesn't reconcile well with the numbers.

I don't trust the official job/unemployment numbers either, and it's fairly obvious that this metric that has been adjusted to favor a particular outcome.

I stand by my suggestion to "do the opposite of the media & the crowds", and it's often the "gut" that lets you know when they are going askew. I'd say, trust your gut!

Thanks for your comments. Rep+

 

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