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Uber Knows...

CycleGuy

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I would bet that autonomous vehicles take similar path of implementation and adoption as Smart Phones.

Smartphones first came around in the mid 90s and just now are close to being in 80% of the mobile phone market. The older generation are the hold ups on switching. I would assume as that older generation passing the current generations who only know technology will adopt it more quickly.

I would say ~20-25 years until they are common place in modern societies.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Uber knows...

And here I thought this was going to be a thread filled with rap videos and pending Bugatti pictures.

Whew!
 

luniac

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lol well lets put this thread on ice for a few years and let's see what happens :)
 

mrarcher

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What will happen when automation almost replaces us completely?

Utopia lifestyle where we only do what truly makes us happy?
probably communism.
 

devine

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probably communism.
I think there is a higher chance of people getting slaughtered in one way or another, because there will be no reason to keep all those people on an overpopulated planet.
No matter how people feel about it, one snap and human rights are history.
 
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Lex DeVille

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probably communism.

That seems to be the general consensus among many Transhumanists.

Not sure how I feel about it. Not sure it matters how I feel either.

Not sure we can discuss it much further without getting into restricted topics.

I think there is a higher chance of people getting slaughtered in one way or another, because there will be no reason to keep all those people on an overpopulated planet.
No matter how people feel about it, one snap and human rights are history.

There is a high chance of existential threats as technology moves forward. Another of many issues humans have barely bothered with. Basically there's a 50/50 chance we'll either be exterminated or live forever in the long run.

That said, the planet is already overpopulated and we're working on expanding to mars.

The real issue happens when someone makes a machine that self-learns & self-improves and then surpasses humans on such a magnitude (the official term is an "intelligence explosion") that we can't stop it from carrying out its processes even if we wanted to. We're talking a machine capable of processing information in ways humans can't even conceptualize. Not 10 steps ahead, but 10 trillion.

Then our existence is up to the machine. Keep in mind I'm not talking about a humanesque machine, but a computer that simply does it's job better and better and better. If it finds humans a likely threat to its ability to carry out whatever task it started with, then it could wipe out humanity in order to continue processing to the best of it's ability.

This is why Elon Musk, Kurzweil and others are pushing so hard for humans to merge with machines. The only suggested way to overcome this that I'm aware of is by merging with machines so we aren't left in the dust.

Here's the epic Wait But Why article that explores this idea in depth.
 

nradam123

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A lot of people are underestimating technology in this thread.

You guys should all read "Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom" and then come back to reply to this thread :)

I mean, if you doubt that automated Uber cars will not work out it just means that you have to go practice the visionary part of your brain. Its the same part of the brain that helped people like Tony Hsieh and Mark Cuban create billion dollar companies.
 

7.62x51

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nrn2719-f1.jpg

I think this is where we should be paying attention when it comes to AI,

The moneky neocortex is about the size of a postage stamp. At this size, they are able to learn basic motor controls but have a limited understanding of higher level concepts.

The human neocortex is about the size of a dinner napkin. This allows them to understand abstract concepts and form societies. However, just as with monkeys, they also have a limit in terms of what they can comprehend.

As we continue to build our towers of knowledge, we are literally approaching the limits of human comprehension. Limited life span + biological baggage means that we each only process a small fragment of the total knowledge available.

If going from a postage stamp to a dinner napkins is the difference between a monkey and a human, what happens if you go from a dinner napkin to a football field? What type of things could you learn then?

After we build an artificial neocortex no longer constrained by biology, it will transcend the limits of our comprehension. By definition, that means we have no idea where that's going to take us.

However, I would bet that by that time, employment will be the least of our concern.
 
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ApparentHorizon

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If going from a postage stamp to a dinner napkins is the difference between a monkey and a human, what happens if you go from a dinner napkin to a football field? What type of things could you learn then?

Does size matter?

Over the past 20k years, our brains have been shrinking but we keep advancing our society at an exponential rate. We're the most intelligent (as we define it) species on this planet but there are other animals which have larger brains. They're not running around inventing radio telescopes though, as far as we can tell.

Brain size may correlate with the number of functions your body performs, ie: more muscles to operate.
http://discovermagazine.com/2010/sep/25-modern-humans-smart-why-brain-shrinking

How about transistors? We see them sticking close to Moore's Law which brings the doubling of processing power every ~2 years. However, the CPU in your computer is roughly the same size.

It may be related to efficiency. Take Intel's Ivy Bridge processor which went from a 2D to a 3D processor - much like having folds in a real brain. A lot of our technology is starting to resemble nature. For example, a kid invented a solar power array shaped like the leaves of a plant and turned out to be extremely efficient.

Tech and nature seem to be converging and as Lex pointed out, we may have to merge with machines. But I'm not worried about computers taking over. If for example we can upload our brains onto a hard drive are we going to bring our natural human tendencies?

With AI you may have a 50% (threat vs no threat) chance of not starting some mass extinction, but we already know how humans react when we have too much power.

Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom

His simulation hypothesis is amazing as well.

For all we know, we may never actually reach the singularity where machines outperform us. Maybe with quantum computers, but the best we've been able to do is multiply: 3x5=15.

Even then, maybe we're a simulation on a 15 year old's computer. His graphics card overheats from our exponential expansion and we crash the universe.
 

juan917

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Hard not to speculate about M&A when I read this.
Uber's growing fast enough to eventually buy Tesla.

Uber doesn't make a profit. Tesla doesn't make a profit. Why would one buy the other
 

7.62x51

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Does size matter?

Over the past 20k years, our brains have been shrinking but we keep advancing our society at an exponential rate. We're the most intelligent (as we define it) species on this planet but there are other animals which have larger brains. They're not running around inventing radio telescopes though, as far as we can tell.

Short answer; yes, size matters when it comes to the neocortex.

Long answer;
triune%20brain.gif


http://www.scientificamerican.com/a...or-evolutionary-expansion-of-human-neocortex/
"The neocortex is so interesting because that's the seat of cognitive abilities, which, in a way, make us human — like language and logical thinking,"

The more neurons you have, the more complex things they can represent. In a real neocortex, the information is stored as a hierarchy. There's a really interesting book called "On Intelligence" that talks about this, highly recommended.
 
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ApparentHorizon

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Short answer; yes, size matters when it comes to the neocortex.

You can have a large but smooth neocortex that's terribly connected and it wouldn't result in higher cognitive functions.

For example, Einstein had additional folds and stronger connections between his hemispheres, but the "size" was the same.

You hit the nail on the head in the next part.

The more neurons you have, the more complex things they can represent.

As well as having strong connections between them.

It goes to the thinking we have in biz: take 2 seemingly unrelated ideas and combine them into a product/service.
 
G

GuestUser450

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Uber doesn't make a profit. Tesla doesn't make a profit. Why would one buy the other

This makes sense, as a metaphysical question. I mean ultimately, what is there? Nothing, really.

But if you're narrow-minded and concern yourself with reality, at least within our shared lifetime, I'd argue that there's value in

a) an infinitely scalable company whose market is the world's population (uber)

and

b) a company who's growing at 25% selling 100k products with zero traditional marketing or commissioned sales reps (tesla).

Don't ignore the bottom line, but look past it long enough to focus on their brand advocates. Acquisition costs and lifetime value for both are extraordinary.

A company can suck at many most things and still thrive if the market shows up to buy.
 
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7.62x51

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You can have a large but smooth neocortex that's terribly connected and it wouldn't result in higher cognitive functions.

For example, Einstein had additional folds and stronger connections between his hemispheres, but the "size" was the same.

You hit the nail on the head in the next part.



As well as having strong connections between them.

It goes to the thinking we have in biz: take 2 seemingly unrelated ideas and combine them into a product/service.

The folds are what allow a larger neocortex to fit into the same sized brain. The ones which appear smooth are already stretched out. A larger neocortex generally means more neurons (ie long-finned pilot whales have more neurons than humans) although it's not the whole picture. How they're wired definitely matters (ie humans have 6 cortical layers whereas whales have 4).

Size is a rough measure and it's totally possible that intelligence scales with size/neuron-count up to a certain point. Even so, that would be okay. The main point is that Intelligence is a finite resource and if we can understand how it works, we can hack it and scale the hell out of it.
 
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Green Destiny

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This makes sense, as a metaphysical question. I mean ultimately, what is there? Nothing, really.

But if you're narrow-minded and concern yourself with reality, at least within our shared lifetime, I'd argue that there's value in

a) an infinitely scalable company whose market is the world's population (uber)

and

b) a company who's growing at 25% selling 100k products with zero traditional marketing or commissioned sales reps (tesla).

Don't ignore the bottom line, but look past it long enough to focus on their brand advocates. Acquisition costs and lifetime value for both are extraordinary.

A company can suck at many most things and still thrive if the market shows up to buy.
Also if you look at the Tesla site, their plan is to eventually have fully automated, solar powered vehicles. (Hence the solarcity merger, although many will say solarcity deal was cause they would have gone bust without it.) Owners can lend their vehicles out to other users when not being personally utilised and earn money from them and in areas where there is a greater demand Tesla will run their own fleet of automated vehicles.

If he pulls this off Elon Musk will probably become the richest guy on the planet. Got to admire his balls.
 

ApparentHorizon

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The folds are what allow a larger neocortex to fit into the same sized brain. The ones which appear smooth are already stretched out. A larger neocortex generally means more neurons (ie long-finned pilot whales have more neurons than humans) although it's not the whole picture. How they're wired definitely matters (ie humans have 6 cortical layers whereas whales have 4).

Size is a rough measure and it's totally possible that intelligence scales with size/neuron-count up to a certain point. Even so, that would be okay. The main point is that Intelligence is a finite resource and if we can understand how it works, we can hack it and scale the hell out of it.

At that point you get into the limits of physics which has it's own set of problems just waiting to be solved.

Google, Microsoft, IBM and others are already working on this. What will be interesting is seeing the entrepreneurial landscape shift away from people and into these few companies, as Hawking warned.

Anyway, I'll shut up about the brain thing - starting to talk out of my a$$...
 

AllenCrawley

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RHL

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A kid was decapitated at a theme park a few weeks ago. It closed that ride. Not even that park. Not every park.

Also, consider:

Theme park=useless amusement.

Car=Essential for life as we know it.

That's why, for example, after one shooting death there is talk of banning guns (even though they are essential for parts of our society, and enshrined in our constitution), but after 30,000 automotive fatalities a year, many involving little kids, there is never a peep about banning cars. Because cars are indispensable, guns are not. The same will govern self-driving cars. It will take mass casualties to daunt the industry.

in 2030, manual driving cars will be like horses today: Weekend amusements of the rich who own them in addition to 2-3 "normal" vehicles.
 
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G

GuestUser450

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in 2030, manual driving cars will be like horses today: Weekend amusements of the rich who own them in addition to 2-3 "normal" vehicles.

I agree with your timing, but think most cars will remain (at least in US).

For the rest of the world, rail/shuttle tech will probably leapfrog driverless cars as mass transit - with autonomous cars being taxis to get to and from the people movers.

Here, I think cars will remain for 3 biggies:
  • regulation gums up good tech (so for rail to actually get built it will have to be private and neutered),
  • disorganized sprawl (like phx metro) is growing, and
  • people don't hate mass transit because it's slow or inefficient, they hate it because of the other passengers.
 

Lex DeVille

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in 2030, manual driving cars will be like horses today: Weekend amusements of the rich who own them in addition to 2-3 "normal" vehicles.

My question is, what else?

What other industries are reaching semi-auto or even full automation levels?

It's hard to know since we're not always looking out for those things.

I think it's a wise time to start making those calculations before going all-in on that next great idea.

Where is the industry going?

How can I position myself to be the tip of the spear when it happens?

Air Bus is looking all the way to 2050.
 
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G

GuestUser450

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My question is, what else?

One is data insights.

The terms data, big data, analytics, etc. are overhyped, but I don't see many businesses actually doing anything with it. I think it's because they're super-focused on acquisition and not on either monetizing their current customers or using predictive analytics, which ironically, could lead to lower cac. Plus, there's a giant skill gap and too many folks calling themselves data scientists who don't know what they're doing, etc.

So, automated insights - automated stories from data, like Tableau without the labor.
 

RHL

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My question is, what else?

What other industries are reaching semi-auto or even full automation levels?


Almost everything.

I'd say the last to go are going to be industries which address extremely unpredictable and diverse problems routinely. I've designed computer image recognition software before, it is maddeningly difficult to account for position, shape, and size-based changes in things you want the robot or camera system to log and manipulate, to, for example, produce software that could recognize a woman's uterus during surgery if it was retroverted, or compensate and find its bearings if she'd had a hysterectomy, or recognize that the 20 different shapes and sizes of control arms used on BMWs (to say nothing of other cars) are all in fact one part with one basic function, and that while the most basic problem is usually the rubber bushings that wear out, that it may be possible that the noise the customer is complaining about is coming from a crack in the metal itself. A computer has a lot of difficulty communicating with humans-something we do instinctively. They're even worse at it if humans are distressed or confused.

Now, I'm no fool; we'll get there too, but I highly doubt we'll have fully automated surgeons, mechanics, architects, etc. in our working lifetime (I'm hoping to retire at 40-45 or so). They'll be doing basic and routine jobs, but humans will still be needed for the most complex and ponderous problems of a certain sort: The sort other humans (programmers) are not good at anticipating.
 

Andy Black

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People are willing to give up control if it means they have to do less.
[HASHTAG]#GoldPost[/HASHTAG]. Rep+

This is literally the only post I've read in this thread, and it applies to EVERYTHING.
 
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RHL

The coaching was a joke guys.
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ApparentHorizon

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