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The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

Thoelt53

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Can somebody explain to me why the CFR is used for C0VlD-19 but not for the flu when comparing the two?

Flu death rate is calculated as deaths / total estimated flu cases, and that .1% number is constantly being compared to the 2-4% estimated death rate for C0VlD-19.

I understand there isn't an estimate for total C0VlD-19 cases, but it seems misleading at best to compare it to the flu in this way. One could argue that it's deceptive, even.

In 40 weeks beginning September 29, 2019 there have been ~270,000 confirmed cases of seasonal flu in the US. CDC estimates 23,000 have died from the flu in this same time period, which gives us a CFR of 8.5%, no?
 
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GIlman

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Can somebody explain to me why the CFR is used for C0VlD-19 but not for the flu when comparing the two?

Flu death rate is calculated as deaths / total estimated flu cases, and that .1% number is constantly being compared to the 2-4% estimated death rate for C0VlD-19.

I understand there isn't an estimate for total C0VlD-19 cases, but it seems misleading at best to compare it to the flu in this way. One could argue that it's deceptive, even.

In 40 weeks beginning September 29, 2019 there have been ~270,000 confirmed cases of seasonal flu in the US. CDC estimates 23,000 have died from the flu in this same time period, which gives us a CFR of 8.5%, no?

That would be an extremely low flu season. Are you sure it’s not 270,000 hospitalizations. Usually the flu impacts many many millions each year.

CFR is = deaths / number of cases.

for flu they estimate it because we have lots of data and years of experience that if there are X laboratory positive cases in a population, that the total number infected is some multiple of that. They have done surveillance studies in the past to show this, which samples a section of the population whether they have symptoms or not.

with CV we can’t make these estimates for total infected because we have not done the surveillance study to determine the typical total infected Vs positive tests. So we rely more on the laboratory confirmed cases. But....the CFR is certainly high because there are lots of unaccounted for cases that must be included for an accurate CFR. The question is how high. SK has done very rigorous data collection, so their CFR is probably pretty close, but CFR can be impacted by more than just # Ill. Hence the high death rates in Italy and Iran.

in future years with more experience with CV we should be able to make better population estimates just like flu. We just need the data experience.
 
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ChrisV

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Our moral dilemma...

View attachment 31460

My personal take is money will come and go. But if someone dies, they're gone forever.

Economies come back. Lives don't.
Exactly. Worst possible case scenario we have to to learn to live with a little less for a little while. No one in the United States is going to starve to death.

And again, I'm not even convinced it's going to be the economic catastrophe they're saying. Wuhan was back to work in 2 months and haven't implemented the work-from-home measures we have.
 
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Thoelt53

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That would be an extremely low flu season. Are you sure it’s not 270,000 hospitalizations. Usually the flu impacts many many millions each year.

CFR is = deaths / number of cases.

for flu they estimate it because we have lots of data and years of experience that if there are X laboratory positive cases in a population, that the total number infected is some multiple of that. They have done surveillance studies in the past to show this, which samples a section of the population whether they have symptoms or not.

with CV we can’t make these estimates for total infected because we have not done the surveillance study to determine the typical total infected Vs positive tests. So we rely more on the laboratory confirmed cases. But....the CFR is certainly high because there are lots of unaccounted for cases that must be included for an accurate CFR. The question is how high. SK has done very rigorous data collection, so their CFR is probably pretty close, but CFR can be infected by more than just # Ill. Hence the high death rates in Italy and Iran.
Right.

What I mean is: why are people comparing the CFR of C0VlD-19 to the death rate of the flu, which uses estimated cases? I understand how we can estimate flu cases, and not C0VlD-19 cases, but that doesn't change the fact that comparing these two rates is manipulative at best.

It's simply better to say we can't compare the two. Would you agree? An apples to apples comparison would give the flu a CFR of 8.5%.

According to the CDC there have been ~270,000 confirmed cases of the flu. That includes both clinical and public health lab results. CDC estimates at least 390,000 hospitalizations and at least 38,000,000 infections.
 

Thoelt53

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Exactly. Worst possible case scenario we have to to learn to live with a little less for a little while. No one in the United States is going to starve to death.

And again, I'm not even convinced it's going to be the economic catastrophe they're saying. Wuhan was back to work in 2 months and haven't implemented the work-from-home measures we have.
Economy /= stock market. The stock market will bounce back as far as anyone can tell. It's the unemployment and the imploding bond market we need to be worried about.

Negative things aside, there are going to be huge huge opportunities in the near future due to a change in how all humans work and live. Not to mention the huge holes left in certain markets as many companies go belly-up in the next few months.
 

GIlman

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This certainly hits some locations more Than others, but the evidence is pretty strong that horrifying things are happening from this illness. Yes this is anecdotal evidence but highly concerning if this pattern replicates widely.

Is 60 really that elderly?

Also remember Italy has 3.8/1000 hospital beds compared to 2/1000.
 
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reedracer

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Is 60 really that elderly?

I'm looking at 60 square in the eye and my 84 year-old parents and my wife's 107 year old grandpa would say I was a young pup!

Saw this earlier, not sure it made it to the list. We are adding 4 pages a day to this thread!


 

loop101

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Couple preemptively self-medicate , husband dies.


The name "chloroquine" resonated with the man's wife, who asked that her name not be used to protect the family's privacy. She'd used it previously to treat her koi fish.

"I saw it sitting on the back shelf and thought, 'hey, isn't that the stuff they’re talking about on TV?'"
The couple — both in their 60s and potentially at higher risk for complications of the virus — decided to mix a small amount of the substance with a liquid and drink it as a way to prevent the coronavirus.
"We were afraid of getting sick," she said.

 

razor

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I’m not going to pretend to have any insight into the logistics of a military lockdown. It would be interesting to talk with someone in the know at the National gaurd, maybe I can find someone for my podcast. Ive had a lot of people reach out already and had some very enlightening conversations.

I think there is always risk of civil unrest when you having trying times and people are scared. We just came across a story today while doing research, basically it appears Prague intercepted a shipment of masks and medical equipment bound for Italy and distributed it to their own hospitals. We had been speculating of such problems for a while, but this was the first time we’ve seen it happen outright. I expect to see it more. Hope it doesn’t lead to armed conflicts.


Thankfully the story about the intercepted masks seems to have a happy ending:

 
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sparechange

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My predictions are right about this corona stuff

31465

31466


Fear monger in the media, give out free money to Canadians, look like a hero.......

Oh yeh taxes are getting jacked up!

The legislation grants Finance Minister Bill Morneau extraordinary new powers to spend, borrow and tax without having to get the approval of opposition MPs until December 2021.

Hallejuah! Canadians are now safe from Corona! Bless the government!
 
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ChrisV

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Italian Journalist Stefano Vergine:

"so the situation changed alot.. in the beginning the majority of the people were mostly worried about the economy. Now it's not like this any more. The most worrying thing is the health situation of the italian people."

View: https://youtu.be/suR4IH1c3rE?t=154

Maybe we won't learn until we get hit with a hard slap in the face like they have.

I was hoping we would nip this in the bud before it got to that point, but maybe it’s just human nature.
 
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Budgeoly

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Point of Information:

In times like these when information is unknown, sketchy, unverifiable, and a lot of speculation, all you can do is FACTUALLY OBSERVE what is happening, and use that to make decisions.

This is why I prepped 4 weeks ago. This is why I stocked up on ammo and got 3 more weapons. This is why I was ready before the media started addressing it.

But here are the facts:

First: China's reaction to this virus was unimaginable, like straight out of an apocalyptic movie. Lock downs, full hazmat gear, quarantines, medical shanty towns ... THAT IS A FACT. From that fact, you can DEDUCE that they know the origin, threat, and likely epidemiology that his virus poses.

Second.

Trillions of dollars are at stake.

Major, billion/trillion dollar industries have gone on hiatus.

You simply don't do that for a flu. For a minor threat. Not when you stand to lose billions. To put it medically, industry knows that this can destroy the patient (the worldwide economy) if they don't address it, so they've decided to amputate a leg (a few months of industry) in order to stave it off.

Again, in life, if you really want to gauge the severity of something (or lack of severity) all you need to do is follow the money. Money is telegraphing that this is BIG, from the markets, to the shutdowns.

I don't care about pro sports -- but it was a big indicator, another datapoint to analyze. And it also made it REAL for the generally uninformed.

I hope the money flow is wrong and that yes, this is a nothing burger. The world's countermeasures perhaps can make that more likely. I hold hope as it seems to be a worldwide effort.



I stopped going to the gym 4 weeks ago. I've gained 6 pounds. I've never done well with the flu, this thing I don't want to get.
More good advice from you regarding the markets would be helpful
 

NovaAria

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If they don't tell people to be cautious and ask governments to quarantine towns and shut down schools and universities, they might end up with a wide-spread pandemic that hits hundreds of millions all over the globe.
If they do, and the virus barely manages to infect anyone, people will look at the panic and the economic losses and compare them to the handful of cases and say "See? It was a nothingburger!"

I have to quote my post from the beginning of the month to remind everyone of where we are, right now.
We are looking at relatively small infection/fatality numbers and huge economic losses and wondering if it was worth it.
Would you rather be looking at the opposite?
Anyone who says "look at Wuhan, it's back to work as if nothing happened" must remember that they welded infected people into their own homes and left them to rot there, all while locking the entire city for two months.
If we want a "everything is back to normal" like a Wuhan, we must do what Wuhan.
 
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MattR82

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I see this welded doors story often on here. What's the actual story, they did this to one building early on? All buildings? Some buildings?
 

Sander

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tpuffer

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That's been my theory I echoed privately... that this has been here for months. Considering some very high profile people have it (politicians, athletes) it leads to the idea that this isn't new, but been here since January ... and a good % of the population already has it. To be honest, I've felt pretty poorly since our event in February. Not sick, but not normal. And I live with some high risk people.

The next day after the Summit I started not feeling well - body aches and slight chills. Our flight got delayed from Sunday morning until Monday morning - apparently Arizona pilots can't land a plane in a few inches of Michigan snow. :rofl:

I didn't feel like eating that much all of Sunday and didn't eat much on Monday morning. During the flight I felt like I was going to be sick and then got very light headed and almost passed out in the restroom.

I went to urgent care as soon as I got home and they "said" it was the flu. I was knocked out for two weeks.

I don't believe it was Corona, but who knows, maybe it was. We weren't specifically testing for this in February.

The US was letting flights in for a long time after the virus started in China. There were millions of people likely exposed to it and brought it here. It's likely that this has been circulating for months and because we weren't testing for it most people attributed it to a cold, or flu.

We will see how this all shakes out, but we could look back and say that crushing the economy for something that was spreading unabated for months to at least make it look like an attempt was made to control it wasn't worth it.

For some, the economic death could be seen as worse than actually dying. I say this from the perspective of growing up poor, and living day by day wondering if there will be enough food. Wondering if there will be hot water for a shower. That takes a toll on a person over a prolonged period of time.

This situation is unprecedented on many levels. I believe that we at the forum, as entrepreneurs and problem solvers; need to help people and customers during this. It will be important to help after as well. Business could look different once the dust settles. I see people becoming more close knit and being very wary of where they place their trust. We can work to be a place, to be a group, that truly helps people moving forward from this.
 
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Budgeoly

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1. Fed doesn't predict unemployment.

2. Fed is actually *currently* predicting 3.1% GDP growth (their estimate is delayed and that's from March 18):


We all know that's not true, but that doesn't change the fact that the information in the graphic is incorrect.
LinkedIn connection request sent from George L
 

Kak

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1. Fed doesn't predict unemployment.

2. Fed is actually *currently* predicting 3.1% GDP growth (their estimate is delayed and that's from March 18):


We all know that's not true, but that doesn't change the fact that the information in the graphic is incorrect.

Touché. It was the president of the St. Louis federal reserve (a division of the FED).

www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-22/fed-s-bullard-says-u-s-jobless-rate-may-soar-to-30-in-2q

I am sorry for not fully fact checking to your exacting standards @JScott. :rofl:
 
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Lex DeVille

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Kak

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We should all turn our focus to what really matters here; who to blame for all of this and fake news! :rofl:
 

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Guys, We are entrepreneurs and alongside our opinions I believe we should be discussing opportunities and solutions and adding values... aaahh well.... for what it's worth..

All we have now is

a). Prevention aka Social Distancing

b). For us that have travelled ...and feel a little down you can't be too sure .... even if it isn't the Corona.. you can bet you might have a hard time being a priority at hospitals. So we are left with your own immune systems... which leads to my point:

This thing has no cure (yet ) except prevention.... hence you might want to eat healthy..to boost your immune systems ... I'd think Ginger.... Garlics... Broccolis ..Vegees...Honey ... and the popular Vitamin C (lemons and oranges for C0VlD-19 pnuemonia)...

Point repeated especially for those not fully in quarantine... all we have is our own immune system which you should/can boost irrespective of age

c). For business/opportunity, I am in the entertainment industry (games).....and I feel this is a good time to adjust and gain more clout or at least add value to my audience at home...and even if you can't make sales... at least this "hot topic" can add more visibility to your sales funnel and many are taking advantage

This Too Shall Pass...But Things Will Never Remain The Same... Just Be Among Those On The Other Side.. I love You
 
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ChrisV

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Ernman

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We should all turn our focus to what really matters here; who to blame for all of this and fake news! :rofl:
LMAO - at previous big company X, we used to joke about taking turns for the blame so we could get on with fixing the problem.
 
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Jakeeck

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This is Wuhan confirmed cases:
View attachment 31453

In China, cases started climbing rapidly. They took drastic measures. 2 months later things improved.

I understand this is improvement, but how does it help anything long-term? It only helps if you continue to keep everyone quarantined for an extremely, extremely long period of time.

This virus started with only a couple people and Wuhan got up to 80k cases. Okay now let's imagine quarantine ends and there's say 10k cases (which seems pretty generous).

Now there's not a couple people to re-spread this virus like there was at the beginning. There are TEN THOUSAND. It's going to fly right back up there and beyond within a few weeks.

Quarantining people doesn't seem like the answer at all. It's only the "correct" political answer because imagine the backlash they would get from allowing this virus to run it's course. Country leaders would be labeled murderers.

It's like they have to prove to us first that quarantine doesn't work so they can be like "see, we tried that, sorry, didn't work".
 

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I'm sorry but that's ridiculous. Not Dying 4 Wall Street? People are so f*cking ignorant it's insane. Who said you're dying? What are you going to die from? I hate to keep comparing this to cars and other forms of death but people like this force you. In that case, I'm "NotDying4Travel".

This is the big problem with the world we live in. Combine hysteria, fake news, and toxic media and feed it to sheep minded people and you get the 99% or these "social warriors". What most people don't realize is this a political attack and I know @MJ DeMarco does not want political talks. But that's all this "campaign" is - a political attack just like the fish tank death is a political attack. Wake up people. This is not the time to move your political agenda. The people making these "campaigns" are the same people living pay cheque to pay cheque and feeding off of free money from the government. We'll see once you get fired from your job if you'll "die4wallstreet" or not. Hilarious.
 

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