Thread: Black friday

I'm considering staying up until Old Navy opens at 3am here... Looks like I'll save about $50 bucks on the kids clothes if I stock up on some of the deals they have going tonight.

-Hakrjak

Little known fact:

Last year, just 2 months after the worst financial scare we've seen in 80 years, sales on black Friday were:

1. Higher
2. Lower
3. The Same

from the year before (when the economy was expanding, and consumer confidence was high).

Answer: 1. Higher.

But why didn't the media report this-- shout this from the rooftops?

-Russ H.

Icy-

Both points are right. Last year's sales were down, and black Friday was up.

My point was-- I listened carefully on Saturday (day after black Friday) to see just *how bad* things were-- and was shocked when the CC companies announced that sales were higher! (not a lot higher, but still--- does everyone remember how scared the world was a year ago today?).

But having a black Friday that was *up* didn't fit w/the doom and gloom message the media was sending out-- it wasn't part of their message.

So it got downplayed. Or didn't get mentioned AT ALL.

Consumer confidence is a fickle thing. It's based on emotion, in large part. I'd like to think that, if the media had shouted "BLACK FRIDAY SALES UP!!!" last year, that perhaps overall sales would not have been down 3% (or whatever they were, I do think they were down).

Another thing hits me, though-- if we were in such a tailspin, we should have been seeing sales drop by double digits-- like 20% off the previous year. That didn't happen.

Again, the media could have done a LOT to improve or feed consumer confidence-- but they didn't.

******

On another topic, Icy, Black Friday is critical to many retailers. Some say it's called BLACK because, for many retailers, it's the day that they "cross over into the black" on their balance sheets-- they sell so much, and make so much profit-- that they finally start to show a profit overall for the entire year.

More info here.

So while one day may not seem that important, it can really make a difference in your overall "health" for the year, as a business. One of the first retail stores I worked in was Tech HiFi (back in the early 1980s). Their biggest sale of the year was Washington's Birthday (in February). They did it then to help them w/cashflow for the entire year. And it really did-- Tech Hifi stores sold as much in that one day than we did most MONTHS. Sure, we had amazing deals (much like Black Friday). But overall, the company made an enormous profit-- and used it to help fund their entire year.

-Russ H.

PS Randall-- thanks for your thoughts, as always. I agree that sales days have been spiking-- and folks out looking for bargains. Another big factor-- which you mention-- is that online sales each year are bigger and bigger. So while the press may sometimes focus on B&M stores, they need to also account for the billions of $$$ being spent online.

I don't like stores, crowds, and I refuse to wait in line for anything. I hate Black Friday and pretty much stay off the main roads to avoid all the traffic associated with it.

I havn't darkened the door of a Best Buy or shopping mall in over a year, hoping to keep it that way.


Why the heck is it worth it to wake up in the middle of the night and wait in some damn line for 4 hours to save a couple bucks on some crap? Its the 21st century I do most of my shopping online and have UPS bring it to me, sometimes already gift wrapped.

I highly doubt that even on electronic's Best Buys black friday sales are better than say newegg.com's regular prices.

Hat-

I don't think a lot of these people go for the bargains.

That's only the reason they give.

The real reason is bragging rights-- to tell someone you did this to save money (or, that it's OK to be a compulsive shopper in a recession, as long as you're saving $5 at 2 am!)

FWIW, there were 3 or more people at our Thanksgiving meal yesterday who were planning on getting up at 2am to be at a store by 3 am.

Bragging rights.

-Russ H.

I've found that recently (last few years), stores seem to have similar sales after Black Friday up through New Years Day - sometimes it's even better than Black Friday. It all depends on how their sales season is going, I would assume.

Originally Posted by Russ H

Last year, just 2 months after the worst financial scare we've seen in 80 years, sales on black Friday were:

...

Answer: 1. Higher.

This is a small part of the story...

Yes, sales were higher (top line numbers), but because of the deep, deep discounts retailers needed to provide to bring shoppers into their stores, profits (bottom line numbers) were much, much lower year-over-year.

In other words, retailers were practically losing money on every sale...but were hoping to make up for it with volume...

Here's what I was talking about:

2008:

"Sales growth was anemic: Shopper Trak, a firm that follows mall traffic, reported that Black Friday retail sales totaled $10.6 billion, up 3% from a year earlier, compared with 7% growth for the same period in 2007."

2009:

"Sales on Black Friday itself climbed just 0.5 percent from 2008, but the $10.66 billion in sales represented the largest dollar amount ever spent on that day, according to ShopperTrak, a Chicago retail sales tracking firm."

Sounds like the most interesting news was not Black Friday-- but the fact that Sat and Sun were up substantially from last year, AND-- that Cybermonday was up bigtime.

Of course, I say "bigtime", but we're only talking 4,300,000 cyber shoppers PER MINUTE, spending a total of $887,000,000 (yes, almost a billion dollars).

In one day.

For the Thanksgiving holiday (Thursday through Monday), cybershoppers spent $2,600,000,000.00


-Russ H.

UPDATE:

Holiday spending - UPI.com

-Russ H.