Thread: GROUPON files for IPO

Russ, I see what you are seeing about '99... the only problem for me is, I did not make money in 99, and I am not well positioned right now to make money with this current environment.

This feels like a crocs stock to me, but I have not actually looked at the company. Too easy in my opinion for local media outlets to pump their own alternative. I can think of two in our area, but maybe I am missing something.

Originally Posted by andviv

... the only problem for me is, I did not make money in 99, and I am not well positioned right now to make money with this current environment.

See?! So it feels like 1999 to you, too, eh?

-Russ H.

and look what happened to LinkedIn

Pandora is also going to go public. They're looking at a valuation of $1.1-1.4 Billion with negative earnings

yep. I think its more like 96 or 97. meaning we have a few more years of crazy stupid valuations, Frothy IPO's and newly minted crazy.

But if thats true, and you knew a crash was coming in 2000. how would you postion yourself to profit from that?
Perhaps bailout postioning,
Shorting at a later date?
Selling Information on whats, hot and how to cash in on it while its going up?

ignore the frothy crazies, focus on teh market starving for info on how to profit in the frothyness. feed them, sell to them.

there are some huge opportunities coming, and if you quickly position yourself, you could make a couple hundred K quickly, and then be ready to short on the other side of this. guys, we are seeing a new bubble form.

think, How can I profit from the next bubble?

hmmm I think I just found a market.... Perhaps I should sell a "How to profit from a crash ebook...."

If you want, I will sell you one for 19.95 now, but hurry before the prices increase!

Originally Posted by zendolphin

yep. I think its more like 96 or 97. meaning we have a few more years of crazy stupid valuations, Frothy IPO's and newly minted crazy.

But if thats true, and you knew a crash was coming in 2000. how would you postion yourself to profit from that?

Perhaps bailout postioning,

Shorting at a later date?

Selling Information on whats, hot and how to cash in on it while its going up?

ignore the frothy crazies, focus on teh market starving for info on how to profit in the frothyness. feed them, sell to them.

there are some huge opportunities coming, and if you quickly position yourself, you could make a couple hundred K quickly, and then be ready to short on the other side of this. guys, we are seeing a new bubble form.

think, How can I profit from the next bubble?

You could make a heckuva lot more than a few hundred K from this.

Wall St vets are (again) going to be riding the funny money that baby boomer know-nothing investors are throwing into the markets.

I have to say-- I can't believe it's happening again-- middle class boomers will be shorted their retirement monies, and the REAL investors will be laughing all the way to the bank.

OK, I can believe it.

I just find it amazing that history is again repeating itself.

What's that saying?

"Those that do not learn from the past
Are doomed to repeat it."

Lots of money to be made right now-- both short term run ups, and long term bubble pops.

Is it just me--- or does it seem like we've entered "the Bubble Age"?

Geesh.

-Russ H.

Originally Posted by zendolphin

But if thats true, and you knew a crash was coming in 2000. how would you postion yourself to profit from that?

One word... PUTS

haha

LinkedIn's IPO is a sign of a bubble but not GroupOn. They're making a ton of money and are on track to make over a billion in revenue this year. The only problem that GroupOn has is all the clones, and some big time companies are creating clones of GroupOn such as Google and Facebook.

Ultimately, Facebook daily deals will be the death of GroupOn since they have guaranteed access to 600+ million users who they can show their deals to every day when they log in and they can target specific deals to specific demographics rather than a single deal for an entire city.

So, for instance they could target women with a spa deal and men in the same city with a deal for skydiving. They can go even further by using peoples likes to target deals even more. But, Facebook deals is only available in a few cities right now as they have to build up their sales force to match GroupOns. The investors in GroupOn will be able to cash out in time before competition from Facebook deals and Google deals destroys their revenue.

The real head scratcher IPO though will be Twitter. They're not profitable and are barely making any revenue and yet they will probably try to IPO at a 10 billion valuation and delusional investors will buy in to their stock thinking that because they have a huge name that it means they are a huge company, when really they're very poorly monetized given their user base and widespread fame.

No question in my mind that Groupon is scared and knows that it is doomed and is using the IPO to cash out and let the dumb money in. They rejected an offer from Google for $6 Billion back in December, bad move... Now Google is coming out with their "Wallet" and their own daily deal site and will crush them...that on top of Facebook daily deals.

Originally Posted by Russ H

Wall St vets are (again) going to be riding the funny money that baby boomer know-nothing investors are throwing into the markets.

I have to say-- I can't believe it's happening again-- middle class boomers will be shorted their retirement monies, and the REAL investors will be laughing all the way to the bank.

OK, I can believe it.

I just find it amazing that history is again repeating itself.

What's that saying?

"Those that do not learn from the past
Are doomed to repeat it."

Yes, I agree with you Russ H. There will most likely always be other bubbles and they will all burst eventually. And the only reason for this (in my opinion) is, that money is not tied to real value anymore, but simply to speculation and greed. And as long as we play that kind of game, history WILL repeat itself...

I have different point of views about Groupon.

Everyone talk about how much money Groupon is making, but forget about how much money they are losing by reinvest those money back to the rapid expansion, lawsuit, refund and ridiculously expensive advertisement on the web and TV.

It's been few years now. I believe the original investors are ready to get their principal back plus interest. So they go for IPO to collect outside money to pay the return to their investors.

I would not hold Groupon's stock for too long, but I would invest and get out quick.

There are cheap deals everywhere. People don't have loyalty. Not to the business and not to the Groupon.

That's just my 2 cents.