Thread: Is Any One Else Short Selling???

Bob, what is your goal with the short selling? Are you doing it until you feel the market turns around or is this a new found passion and career? Sounds like you are having a lot of fun!

Bob, what is your goal with the short selling? Are you doing it until you feel the market turns around or is this a new found passion and career? Sounds like you are having a lot of fun!

Hey MJ!

Actually, I'd like to be long in positions rather than short. Only one problem with that. Nothing is showing up on my radar for a long position right now.

The report I run each night showed 197 short opportunities last night, and ZERO long ones. Nothing is trending up right now in any meaningful way.

Obviously today isn't looking much brighter either.

Even when we have a good day or two, it doesn't develop a trend. It might, if I were day trading, which I'm not. I'm usually looking for a trade to cycle in about 2 to 15 days.

Some day the trend will turn...

Today was the second best day I've had since I started trading this new system.

Every position I'm holding now is a short position, and they all moved down today.

I managed to close out one position:

• R -- Sold short on Friday at $45.81, covered today at $37.90 for a 17.27% gain.

As I think I mentioned before, when my account goes in my favor, my risk actually goes up. This is because I'm now further from my Stop Loss prices. Because of this, even though my account went up 4.72% today, I don't have enough in my Risk Pool to short anything else.

Both the CFO and CEO of our company think I'm nuts for shorting. They keep calling it gambling. But I'm up around 45% in the last few months due to following this system. Part of the system is managing risk, and position sizing. So, for now anyway, it is a gamble I'm willing to take.

I actually had a second stock that crossed my 15% profit line, but that occured with about 45 minutes left in the trade day. By the time the day ended, it had crossed back over to around 13%, so I missed locking it in.

On the good side, the Ryder (R) trade above would normally have tripped at $38.51, after it hit a low of $37.38 and then reversed 3%. By watching the reversal occur near the end of the day, I was able to get out at $37.90 manually.

One thing I'm noticing is that as my number of positions rise, it is getting increasingly difficult to watch them efficiently toward the end of the trade day. This is especially true if several are near a trigger point.

I don't anticipate this to be a problem forever, since in my testing I seldom had 20 stocks to pick from, let alone the nearly 200 that I'm seeing now. Once the market starts to stabilize, things should get better.

Way to go Bob!

You're a good guy, and you deserve it.

I am a big fan of Van Tharp and "The Way of the Turtle" and it's cool to see you putting a system like this into action.

I am a big fan of Van Tharp and "The Way of the Turtle" and it's cool to see you putting a system like this into action.

I'll have to agree. His stuff is tops!

On to today...

Some interesting stuff. At one point (mid-afternoon) I thought I was going to hit profit stops on the bulk of my positions. I had 7 of my 10 positions showing gains of 11-16%. As I said...at one point.

Within a very short time, the market reversed, shooting up nearly 500 points from where my "Happy Day" was left standing by the side of the road. I was up nearly 3%, and it disappeared.

The good news it that I was still up on a plus market day!

I made a whooping $.49!

Is this the Fastlane or what!!!

Here's the other neat thing. I get to short a position tomorrow. Yesterday, I couldn't. Today, I can.

The difference is the risk I have left on the table. Even though my account only changed $.49, my stops all moved up, due to the down trend of the market recently. This tightening of stops reduced the risk in my Risk Pool, allowing for another position.

And here's the neat thing...I get to Short it on an "up" day, where my selling price (in theory) should be higher.

It was kind of interesting to see what changes there were in my account on a flat day (profit-wise).

Here's my pick. The order is placed for a morning trade:

• VRSN -- Short with a limit of $19.77 (closed at $20.17)

One other thing I noticed today. Even though the market was up, 6 of my 10 positions dropped in price. That indicates that I'm still picking good Shorts. Right now, all 10 of the positions are on the profit side, which is another good indicator.

Great morning...ok afternoon...good day.

That sums up today's market for me.

With all the bad news on futures this morning, I had already ordered my Lambo. The day did start out good, with me closing 3 positions within the first half-hour. But then the market started to recover.

I managed to squeeze out one more position close before 11:00, and then I was done for the day. With one exception...

VRSN -- Short with a limit of $19.77 (closed at $20.17)

VRSN started below my limit, drifted lower, and then finally came up just before lunch. I ended up taking a short position at $19.77 -- right at my limit. At the end of the day, it closed at $19.60, giving me a small gain. Without my limit, I might have ended up shorting at $18.60 and losing 5% on the day for it. I'm liking those short limits!

My position closes for the day were as follows:

• ADI -- Shorted on 10/13 at $22.15 -- covered at $18.64 for a 15.85% gain in 11 days
• ASH -- Shorted on 10/13 at $26.31 -- covered at $21.77 for a 17.26% gain in 11 days
• INTC -- Shorted on 10/9 at $16.70 -- covered at $13.76 for a 17.60% gain in 15 days
• AMAT -- Shorted on 10/9 at $12.85 -- covered at $10.84 for a 15.64% gain in 15 days

I have room in my Risk Pool for 4 more positions. Due to the limits I put in place, I'm placing 5 orders for Monday, with the intention of cancelling the last after 4 are filled.

Here are Monday's orders:

• ADM -- Short with $17.18 limit
• BMC -- Short with $22.53 limit
• JNPR -- Short with $16.17 limit
• PEG -- Short with $27.09 limit
• SWN -- Short with $26.57 limit

Overall, I was up in total account value by 2.93% for the day.

Of the entire S&P 500, 317 stocks showed up on my list today...SCARY! Not one was long.

Thx for all the updates Bob, I am enjoying reading-up on your trades.

Originally Posted by PhxMJ

Thx for all the updates Bob, I am enjoying reading-up on your trades.

Thanks MJ!

Hard to tell if people are out there sometimes...

I think I know where retired weathermen go...

This morning, as last week, the futures were looking WAY down. Everything indicated that the market would tank big-time today. Not quite reality.

In fact, other than a short time this morning, the market was up most of the day. I got lucky, as TSN closed this morning at the largest percentage gain I've hit so far. Then the market turned up. It stayed up most of the day, until just before the close, when it tanked. But "only" 200 points. Nothing like what we are seeing overseas.

The market increase actually helped me too. I shorted my four positions early on in the day, and they sold above my limits (except one). Unfortunately, they started to climb in price, which isn't good when you are shorting!

Here is how my Friday-booked trades entered the market:

• ADM -- Shorted at $17.32 -- $.14 over limit
• BMC -- Shorted at $22.53 -- $.09 over limit
• JNPR -- Shorted at $16.55 -- $.38 over limit
• SWN -- Shorted at $26.57 -- right at limit

I closed out two positions:

• TSN -- Shorted on 10/13 at $11.20 -- covered at $8.918 for a 20.38% gain in 14 days
• QLGC -- Shorted on 10/17 at $12.73 -- covered at $10.82 for a 15.00% gain in 10 days

I have room in the Risk Pool for one more position, which I have entered for morning:

• EIX -- Short with limit of $30.52

Overall, my account was up 1.68% today.

Seven more stocks hit my report today, for a total of 324 -- all showing short signals.

Bob, hope you didn't killed today ... not a good day to be short. Lets us know you're OK!

Originally Posted by PhxMJ

Bob, hope you didn't killed today ... not a good day to be short. Lets us know you're OK!

Well...there is a small pool of blood forming in the seat of my pants.

I'm down about 9.13% in the account for the day.

Amazingly, no stops were hit, so I'm still in all my positions.

On the up side, I have great news in my 4-unit thread!

To start off, my one short order from last night filled high due to the jump at the start of the day:

• EIX -- Shorted at $32.00 -- $1.48 over my limit

As I mentioned above, none of my positions closed today, although ADM is VERY close. It ended the day at $20.98, and my stop is set at $21.16, so if the market is up in the morning, I'm out of that one (likely).

I've talked a little bit about my Risk Pool, and even though it is a bit confusing, I'll try to explain the wierd reult it gave me today. Based on the crappy day I had today, I actually have room for 4 more positions in the risk pool today. It doesn't seem to make sense, even to me. But I think I'm understanding it a bit better.

A few days ago, I posted this:

The difference is the risk I have left on the table. Even though my account only changed $.49, my stops all moved up, due to the down trend of the market recently. This tightening of stops reduced the risk in my Risk Pool, allowing for another position.

Today is that same thing, only from a different angle. While my stops did mainly tighten, the closing prices gained, bringing them closer to my stops. In the example above, my stops came DOWN to the closing prices. Today, the closing prices came UP to the stops. Either way, less of my (remaining) account balance is "at risk".

In total, I'm willing to risk no more than 25% of my account balance on any day. How many dollars that is depends on the balance that day.

But for any one position, the AMOUNT I'm willing to risk goes UP as my account balance increases. At the same time, the PERCENT of my account I'm willing to risk on any one position goes DOWN as my balance increases.

So, even though I'm getting a signal to enter more trades in my 25% Risk Pool, those trades will be smaller dollar risks, yet higher percentage risks.

I kind of think of the system in the way an accountant thinks of "Sunk Costs". It doesn't matter what happened yesterday or today. The 10% I lost is gone (well, not really, since I didn't close the positions, but...). My research says that from where I am today, entering 4 more positions is the right thing to do.

I'm just risking 25% of a smaller pool today than I was yesterday. And since most prices are up, I'll essentially be shorting them at the prices from a week ago. It's a great deal, unless they continue to climb.

Yesterday, there were 324 stocks on my loser report. Today, it's down to 296 -- the first decrease in many days. But there still wasn't a single long signal.

Here are my orders for the morning:

• CCL -- Short with limit of $27.17
• HUM -- Short with limit of $31.28
• KG -- Short with limit of $7.23
• LUV -- Short with limit of $10.90

It seems odd that three of these are healthcare related. Maybe something to do with Obama's health care plan??

We'll see if tomorrow's ride is as rough as today's was for me. It would be unusual for two big up days to occur in a row, but who knows?

One last comment -- even though today hit me hard here, I have money in retirement accounts that is long in the market. I'll guarantee today was a plus day for me overall.

Here are my orders for the morning:

• CCL -- Short with limit of $27.17
• HUM -- Short with limit of $31.28
• KG -- Short with limit of $7.23
• LUV -- Short with limit of $10.90

I don't know if anyone else read this, but I didn't. I posted it, but I never placed the orders.

As I mentioned above, none of my positions closed today, although ADM is VERY close. It ended the day at $20.98, and my stop is set at $21.16, so if the market is up in the morning, I'm out of that one (likely).

This happened exactly 19 seconds into the trade day. The price spiked, my stop loss order triggered, the price dropped, and I got out at $20.58 which was $.40 less than it closed at. You can never tell! Good thing, since it closed the day out at $21.50.

This was my first losing trade since 10/9 -- when I was long on some positions. The momentum has definitely stopped, but I'm not sure the bad days are over yet.

As I mentioned above, I never placed any orders last night. Some of those opportunities are gone now -- no longer on my report. A couple of new ones showed up, and one I bypassed last night is still there. My Risk Pool says to take on 5 new positions, but I can only find 4 to enter:

• Shorting HUM with a limit of $29.80 (was $31.28 last night)
• Shorting LMT with a limit of $77.04
• Shorting NWL with a limit of $13.22
• Shorting SLM with a limit of $9.90 (a bit outside my specs, but carried from last night)

Overall, my account was up .62% for the day. Not quite enough to make up for yesterday.

The total number of stocks on my report dropped from 296 to 257 today. This is another sign that the momentum has slowed. I won't be surprised if I see some longs starting to show up by early next week.

Now that the Fed's announcement is out of the way, maybe things will be a bit smoother over the rest of the week...until Tuesday night's election results hit. Then, who knows what will happen?

I'm enjoying your updates Bob.

Looking forward to your presentation of all the details at the B&P

Oh, Boy! Time to catch up.

Shorting HUM with a limit of $29.80 (was $31.28 last night)
Shorting LMT with a limit of $77.04
Shorting NWL with a limit of $13.22
Shorting SLM with a limit of $9.90 (a bit outside my specs, but carried from last night)

The above orders were for 10/30, and the market was up well right from the start. I sold short as follows:

• HUM -- $31.69 -- $1.89 over limit (6%)
• LMT -- $81.99 -- $4.95 over limit (6%)
• NWL -- $14.00 -- $.78 over limit (5%)
• SLM -- $10.66 -- $.76 over limit (7%)

While that was good news on the SALE side, it raised havoc on the cover side. But only with one stock:

• SWN -- Covered at $33.426 for a 25.8% loss in only 3 days

It also put a dent in my account value, dropping it by about 1.34%.

================================================== ===========

On Friday, 10/31, I entered the following short sales:

• EL -- Shorted at $34.75 -- $.53 over limit (1%)
• SEE -- Shorted at $16.46 -- $.43 over limit (2%)

I watched in amazement as HUM opened at $29.53, and then plummeted to $25.01 before climbing back up to close at $29.59. I had a GREAT cover on it:

• HUM -- Shorted on 10/30 for $31.69 -- covered at $25.19 for a 20.51% gain in 1 day!!!

I ended up down another 1.59% for the day though. Not the best week I've had.

But -- for the month of October, I had 20 winning trades versus 8 losing trades. Best of all, I had an annualized 151% gain for the month, excluding fees.

================================================== ===============

On to today, November 3rd...

I shorted the following three positions this morning:

• CCL -- Shorted at $24.89 -- right at limit
• FITB -- Shorted at $11.08 -- $.45 over limit (4%)
• GME -- Shorted at $27.18 -- $.34 over limit (1%)

No positions closed today, yet, despite the market being up most of the day, I was in the profit all day long.

Overall, my account was up 2.19% for the day. Pretty darned good!

I'm up to 16 positions right now, and I don't anticipate having room in the risk pool for any more until I close some of them.

I'm close on a few, but they aren't in profit positions -- I'm seeing my stops come down to the trade price rather than the price coming up to the stop. This is good, because it reduces my profit loss risk on those positions, so even if I lose, I lose small.

For example, if I short a stock at $10 with an initial stop at $20, I have a $10 risk. If my share price climbs to $20 the next day, I lose $10, or 100% per share. But if the stop drops down to $11 over several days, and then the stock climbs, I only lose $1, or 10% on the stock.

So, although my initial risk might be 100%, my average risk might come down to 30% because of this effect. If I gain an average of 20% and lose an average of 30% it doesn't sound too good. But if I win twice as often as I lose, I'm netting around 10% per trade. If a trade occurs every 5 days on average, then I can roll that 10% many times in a year.

Sucky day. Down 8.2%. One position closed. Gotta' go vote.

Catching up...

Yesterday, I closed one losing position:

• DHR -- Shorted on 10/21 at $56.66 -- covered at $61.49 for an 8.52% loss

And I placed two orders for this morning:

• MNST -- Shorted at $13.47 -- $.32 over limit
• SNI -- Shorted at $28.47 -- $.42 over limit

While yesterday was the worst single day I've had since using this system (percentage-wise), today was the absolute BEST!

My account value climbed an amazing 11.88% in one single day.

In my mind, the markets should have gone the other way...down yesterday, due to uncertainty, and up today, since we now have a new President.

I almost baled on my trading strategy after this past week and yesterday. Today, I'm back on track.

Another great day for me today!

Up nearly 10%, although still no closed positions.

I do have 4 stocks that are +10% gain or more today.

Maybe they'll hit in the morning?

Two days ago, all were in the red, profitwise.