Thread: How much longer do you think this recession will last? Peak?

We have technically been out of recession since 2009.

I don't think you guys are in a recession right now. Not by the technical definition anyway. Is there another criteria?

The "recovery" appears to be fake--there is no such thing as a jobless recovery. Also, printing trillions of fiat dollars does not solve an economic crisis, it simply makes it worse in the end.

From the information I've gathered from investment sources and a multimillionaire friend in finance, we're probably looking at this "recession" (or more accurately, depression) lasting for at least a decade, possibly two.

It's a big problem when nearly all of the world's currencies are at risk of hyperinflation... and it won't be solved fast, or easy.

It's a fake recovery, and it will get a lot worse before it gets better, you haven't seen anything yet - Yes, American's can't get jobs, but they can still rack up welfare debt. Once that gets cut off by China/other creditors, people are going to be in for a rude awakening. You'll probably see riots etc. The Government can't keep printing confetti dollars, if that were the path to prosperity why not just print $2billion and give every single person $2bn? Poverty be gone! .. It doesn't work like that. Money will continue to lose value and the economy will only decline until there is a big crash/reset, or they drastically change course (Think Ron Paul as President) I don't see that happening.

My advice to anyone in America would be that any wealth you end up generating, plese, for the love of god, do not keep it in the bank. Borrow to acquire an asset, buy bullion, buy another currency, but don't put 100% of your wealth in greenbanks or you will be, for lack of a better word - FUCKED!!

Originally Posted by damien275x

It's a fake recovery, and it will get a lot worse before it gets better, you haven't seen anything yet - Yes, American's can't get jobs, but they can still rack up welfare debt. Once that gets cut off by China/other creditors, people are going to be in for a rude awakening. You'll probably see riots etc. The Government can't keep printing confetti dollars, if that were the path to prosperity why not just print $2billion and give every single person $2bn? Poverty be gone! .. It doesn't work like that. Money will continue to lose value and the economy will only decline until there is a big crash/reset, or they drastically change course (Think Ron Paul as President) I don't see that happening.

My advice to anyone in America would be that any wealth you end up generating, plese, for the love of god, do not keep it in the bank. Borrow to acquire an asset, buy bullion, buy another currency, but don't put 100% of your wealth in greenbanks or you will be, for lack of a better word - FUCKED!!

Agreed.

If you have money, buy assets.

If you don't have money, build skill sets (and of course, work on your fastlane business at the same time).

For the average person thing will probably get worse before they get better.

House prices will most likely fall or remain rather flat for another 5 years.

For MANY people who plan ahead, work extra jobs and/or have their own businesses they never even felt the recession.

For me personally even when I worked grunt factory jobs I never noticed any recession, boom or anything. Seriously I just don't get it.

For eg people whose houses have fell REALLY dramatically in value HOW THE F has this effected them negatively?????

They were not going to sell for years any ways so they see no change in their mortg payment nor their income. Orrrrrrr let's say they DO sell they they get 50K LESS than what they paid. WHO Cares they also pay 50K LESS for the next house they buy!

Anyone get the idea that these things REALLY bother me because for the most part they are just an excuse for people to complain?

I mean really even gas if it goes up a FULL buck a gallon only increases the average person's expenses by $300 flipping dollars a YEAR! Butttttttt it sure does give them reason to bitch and moan to each other about it doesn't it?


PLEASE note I said MANY and MOST not ALL people

Originally Posted by PatrickP

For the average person thing will probably get worse before they get better.

House prices will most likely fall or remain rather flat for another 5 years.

For MANY people who plan ahead, work extra jobs and/or have their own businesses they never even felt the recession.

For me personally even when I worked grunt factory jobs I never noticed any recession, boom or anything. Seriously I just don't get it.

For eg people whose houses have fell REALLY dramatically in value HOW THE F has this effected them negatively?????

They were not going to sell for years any ways so they see no change in their mortg payment nor their income. Orrrrrrr let's say they DO sell they they get 50K LESS than what they paid. WHO Cares they also pay 50K LESS for the next house they buy!

Anyone get the idea that these things REALLY bother me because for the most part they are just an excuse for people to complain?

I mean really even gas if it goes up a FULL buck a gallon only increases the average person's expenses by $300 flipping dollars a YEAR! Butttttttt it sure does give them reason to bitch and moan to each other about it doesn't it?


PLEASE note I said MANY and MOST not ALL people

Voice of reason.

Originally Posted by PatrickP

For the average person thing will probably get worse before they get better.

House prices will most likely fall or remain rather flat for another 5 years.

For MANY people who plan ahead, work extra jobs and/or have their own businesses they never even felt the recession.

For me personally even when I worked grunt factory jobs I never noticed any recession, boom or anything. Seriously I just don't get it.

For eg people whose houses have fell REALLY dramatically in value HOW THE F has this effected them negatively?????

They were not going to sell for years any ways so they see no change in their mortg payment nor their income. Orrrrrrr let's say they DO sell they they get 50K LESS than what they paid. WHO Cares they also pay 50K LESS for the next house they buy!

Anyone get the idea that these things REALLY bother me because for the most part they are just an excuse for people to complain?

I mean really even gas if it goes up a FULL buck a gallon only increases the average person's expenses by $300 flipping dollars a YEAR! Butttttttt it sure does give them reason to bitch and moan to each other about it doesn't it?


PLEASE note I said MANY and MOST not ALL people

I haven't felt it really, but I have a job.
Is the Great Depression of the 30s going to happen again in the states is my concern.

I mean people going hungry because food stamps aren't available, people cannot find jobs, and prices are sky-high.

I am very concerned but I also see some positives as well. For many businesses work has picked up but hiring has not and if it has it comes with a much lower wage then you would have gotten pre recession. The 19-25 age braket has over 50% unemployment/underemployment with astronomical amounts of student loan debt. Plus the crappy economy for some reason is compelling more people to go to college making the debt load worse and ensureing that the only thing that keeps going up is the cost of tuition ( I wish there was an etf that tracts tuition). I am not sure what to think of housing right now. Inventories are low, banks are supposedly holding onto shadow inventory that I wish they would start unloading, and investors flooding the market on news of a strong rental market has good deals becoming harder to come by. The problem is apprasals are still completely stagnant so new construction still doesnt really make sense in many markets and purchasing existing at a higher price doesnt leave much room for profit given appreciation being somewhat caped by low apprasals. Plus finanacing is still hard to get.

The whole EU situation looks worse then the US so hopefully that will keep pumping money into our garbage debt and buy us some time to clean house and get a government that knows how to spend and create jobs. My guess is that will never happen until we decide that lawyers are terrible at spending money and start electing business people.

Since I dont see that happening I am trying to stay optimistic, work on my business, learn as many skills as possible, save what I can, and try to decide what country to move to.

makes me think learning Chinese might be a good goal nowadays (to live there)

So many pessimistic people out there. What happen to optimism? why live in fear? (keep you fears to yourself).

If you guys think you live in a recession then you haven't seen nothing yet. If you live in north america, west europe, australia, or any other rich, first world country then consider yourself very lucky. You have no idea how much ahead you are in life. I come from a third world country and most of you don't have any idea what a "recesion/depression" is. The people who are complaining about the economy in the u.s those same people would probably go fukin crazy if they lived in a poor ass country.

So STOP complaining and do something with your life!

Originally Posted by MillionBillion

So many pessimistic people out there. What happen to optimism? why live in fear? (keep you fears to yourself).

If you guys think you live in a recession then you haven't seen nothing yet. If you live in north america, west europe, australia, or any other rich, first world country then consider yourself very lucky. You have no idea how much ahead you are in life. I come from a third world country and most of you don't have any idea what a "recesion/depression" is. The people who are complaining about the economy in the u.s those same people would probably go fukin crazy if they lived in a poor ass country.

So STOP complaining and do something with your life!

They weren't be pessimistic but realistic. I don't really care about third world countries, nor the theoretical approach "what if I live there". I never will live in one, unless USA becomes 2060s third world country, but I doubt it. I don't think I am better, but I have complete apathy for them, why? It's not my country, it's not my family, it's not my race (well I have a nationality from a poor country, but they weren't 3rd world), it's not my fault, and I can't fix it (nor do I care to fix it)

It is honorable you left your country though, if you CAN do it, so can they.

As an individual shopping for U.S. RE for the last 2.5 years, prices in Phoenix, Tampa and Atlanta aren't falling any more. I'm dealing with bidding wars from Canadians and the Chinese now more than ever. My experience only.

Originally Posted by Lights

It is honorable you left your country though, if you CAN do it, so can they.

Tell that to the north koreans

Yes, the economic situation in most Western countries is grim right now.
I used to worry a lot about the macro-economic situation, even though I could not do anything to change it. At times that was paralizing.
At some point last year I decided to concentrate only on my own economy. Not because I am selfish, but because that is something I can control.
Ever since I turned that switch in my mind, I feel totally relaxed and as a bonus my business projects have also benefitted from it. I make better, less emotional, decisions.

So, my advice is to stop paralizing yourself by worrying abou things you can't. Instead, look for opportunities No matter how bad the general economy is, there are lots of opportunities out there. Put your energy into finding these.

I'm hoping for either a U.S. stock market or Canadian RE crash by 2015. That is my dream.

.....

Originally Posted by Lights

They weren't be pessimistic but realistic. I don't really care about third world countries, nor the theoretical approach "what if I live there". I never will live in one, unless USA becomes 2060s third world country, but I doubt it. I don't think I am better, but I have complete apathy for them, why? It's not my country, it's not my family, it's not my race (well I have a nationality from a poor country, but they weren't 3rd world), it's not my fault, and I can't fix it (nor do I care to fix it)

It is honorable you left your country though, if you CAN do it, so can they.

You misunderstood my point...

but hey think what you wanna think...