Risk Poll 2: If I gave you $500...

**biophase** · Nov 22nd, 2009, 03:06 AM

If I gave you $500 dollars and then I gave you a choice:

I will take away $100 from you

or

I will flip a coin and heads you keep all the money and tails I take away $200.

Which would you choose?

**fast_track_chaz** · Nov 22nd, 2009, 06:16 AM

I would always choose to flip because the odds are same on the flip.

I can be conservative and keep the sure thing. But in my head that is slowlane thinking.

I can take the flip, recognize my risk that the odds are favorable that in the worse case scenario, I still have money but I still have the opportunity to receive more money.

**JayKim** · Nov 22nd, 2009, 06:45 AM

**bflbob** · Nov 22nd, 2009, 09:05 AM

Statistically, the results are the same.
100% x $100 = (50% x $0) + (50% x $200)

What isn't the same is the spread of the results.
In the first case, I'd ALWAYS lose $100.
In the second, I'd lose $100 ON AVERAGE.

So, I'd think gamblers would tend to go with choice #2, since they hope for the best.
More conservative people would go with choice #1, since they'd fear the worse.

An opportunist would bop you in the jaw while you are watching the coin go up, and take all your money.

**biophase** · Nov 22nd, 2009, 01:06 PM

Originally Posted by bflbob

Statistically, the results are the same.
100% x $100 = (50% x $0) + (50% x $200)

What isn't the same is the spread of the results.
In the first case, I'd ALWAYS lose $100.
In the second, I'd lose $100 ON AVERAGE.

So, I'd think gamblers would tend to go with choice #2, since they hope for the best.
More conservative people would go with choice #1, since they'd fear the worse.

An opportunist would bop you in the jaw while you are watching the coin go up, and take all your money.

Remind me to watch Bob at the Beer and Pancakes Meeting.

**Rawr** · Nov 23rd, 2009, 03:58 AM

Originally Posted by bflbob

Statistically, the results are the same.
100% x $100 = (50% x $0) + (50% x $200)

What isn't the same is the spread of the results.
In the first case, I'd ALWAYS lose $100.
In the second, I'd lose $100 ON AVERAGE.

So, I'd think gamblers would tend to go with choice #2, since they hope for the best.
More conservative people would go with choice #1, since they'd fear the worse.

An opportunist would bop you in the jaw while you are watching the coin go up, and take all your money.

Thanks, this made sense...after I posted that it probably doesnt matter in the first thread... DOH.

Very good!

Now if I had three doors, and a goat behind one of them... :P