Twitter on the Deathwatch

Vigilante · Jan 21, 2016

I am putting Twitter on deathwatch.

I don't think they'll still be a thing by January 2018.

It will be around, but nobody will care. It will continue it's fade to irrelevance.

The next big platform hasn't been hatched yet, but you will see some new form of social media emerge in 2016.

Twitter is the MySpace of current social media.

Their 15 minutes of fame are over.

Shareholders will keep it alive artificially longer than they should, but it will be a slow bleed to zero.

They never had a superior value proposition to Facebook other than for stalking someone.

MJ DeMarco · Jan 21, 2016

I'm going to disagree... I think it will be bought out. It's too ubiquitous in media for it to disappear. Once it hits the cheap, it will be scooped up pretty quick.

Vigilante · Jan 21, 2016

MJ DeMarco said:
I'm going to disagree... I think it will be bought out. It's too ubiquitous in media for it to disappear. Once it hits the cheap, it will be scooped up pretty quick.

To your point

http://recode.net/2016/01/21/twitte...heres-how-a-twitter-acquisition-could-happen/

Greyson F · Jan 21, 2016

My reply to that @Vigilante involves that Peers, Inc. I mentioned in a recent reply.

With data science the forefront of most Value Propositions in social media, they are actually HIGHLY valuable to those who like to take advantage of user data.

Not to mention they are one of the strongest machine learning systems in the world for discovering and tracking localized, target, and worldwide trends.

I think Robbin Chase mentions something about scaled learning systems too. Things like Twitter are designed to grow until an Economic bubble pops them.

Vigilante · Jan 21, 2016

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/30/how-myspace-fell-apart_n_887853.html

Twitter has some of the same trends.

1 billion people have tried it.

700 million of them have left or no longer use it.

300 million are active users.

Their business model requires subscriber growth.

Vigilante · Jan 21, 2016

Greyson F said:
My reply to that @Vigilante involves that Peers, Inc. I mentioned in a recent reply.

With data science the forefront of most Value Propositions in social media, they are actually HIGHLY valuable to those who like to take advantage of user data.

Not to mention they are one of the strongest machine learning systems in the world for discovering and tracking localized, target, and worldwide trends.

I think Robbin Chase mentions something about scaled learning systems too. Things like Twitter are designed to grow until an Economic bubble pops them.

Problem is they are not growing.

Greyson F · Jan 21, 2016

Vigilante said:
Their business model requires subscriber growth.

Their business model SCALES with subscriber growth, and their machine learning accelerates.

As far as the business model, as long as their current users continue to post, the Average Value per "Customer" rises and they still have data to sell.

Vigilante · Jan 21, 2016

They're slashing fixed and variable expenses, with massive layoffs last quarter. All of that will still not make them profitable. It will hopefully shorten losses while they pray for a hail mary pass. Too bad Aaron Rodgers isn't their CEO.

Greyson F · Jan 21, 2016

Vigilante said:
They're slashing fixed and variable expenses, with massive layoffs last quarter.

I think what they are doing is realizing they have a lack of control. Robbin mentions this when she analyzes Twitter. Out of all of the Social Media Platforms, Twitter is the one that has the most RAW data open to any and every software ready prowl through and organize it.

Facebook has ads.

Google has military contracts.

Twitter has...Donald Trump? :cookoo:

*Edited due to 4 "that" inputs in two sentences

ilrein · Jan 21, 2016

I think that Twitter fills an important need -- and we know well here, that so long as a need exists, their is a market for it.

The true value of Twitter is the ability for news to spread wildfire style. This massive communications platforms has made it very difficult for oppressive regimes to hide their actions from the world. Take a look at some of these "Twitter Revolutions".

There's too much value in a highly connected telecommunications network. 300 million active users is pretty stupendous, even if there are tons of dead accounts.

JDawg · Jan 22, 2016

Saw this the other day and thought it was interesting... Twitter still ranks #3 for total visits.

3things · Jan 22, 2016

I have no axe to grind with twatter as a product or platform, it's great for real time news type things but I've been saying for years as a business it's horrible.

The biggest business way they screwed up IMHO has been the ad platform. As an advertiser think about how much fb knows about you, and the info they get when you sign up. Now think about the data twatter gets when you sign up. Yup, your email.

This means the ad platform is a horror show vs fb as the targeting is non existent and vague compared to fb. Add to that the traffic is horrible from the pov of selling anything directly...

Finally I feel vindicated lol someone else spotted it for what it is the emperors new clothes. I tell ppl it sucks a$$ and is horrible as a biz or ad platform and they laugh at me lol. They're now trying to turn into WordPress with the long form content idea. They can't fix the ad side as the horse has bolted, oh and they have a huge spam account problem.

LateStarter · Jan 22, 2016

I think the problem with Twitter is that people are trying to use it as a push marketing/sales platform and for that it just plain sucks. Content creators also piss me off because they're flooding the feed X times a day with the same shitty stories. That's not leveraging the platform's strengths!

It's strengths are two fold: 1) they're a decent communication platform for brands to engage customers with (both one-on-one and in mass) and 2) the data they aggregate serves as a good heartbeat to social issues and market conditions as seen by customers. You can react and engage quickly with the people that matter to you.

I don't think Twitter will go the way of MySpace but I don't think it will be the darling that it's made out to be now. Marketers are presently ruining Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. I don't think Snapchat will get enough traction with buying demographics to become a replacement platform. The next best thing is still to come. People are watchign Peach closely but...I'm not sold on that either.

snappyhappy · Jan 22, 2016

LateStarter said:
I think the problem with Twitter is that people are trying to use it as a push marketing/sales platform and for that it just plain sucks. Content creators also piss me off because they're flooding the feed X times a day with the same shitty stories. That's not leveraging the platform's strengths!

Marketers ruin everything.

obrian · Jan 22, 2016

facebook has surprised me and for them to be so damn valuable off of just one product is quite amazing because instagram and whatsapp isn't making any money yet. well i think they start to monetize instagram but mark is a genius though for what he has done.the thing with social media is what happens when the party stops which growth.each quarter investors are waiting viciously over their screens to see facebook growth numbers and if they don't meet those expectations it's facebook is not growing fast enough all over the media again lol.

twitter blew it for me big time i remember when persons were using twitter and it was growing faster than facebook but something went wrong just like yahoo lol. some mismanagement or something just isn't right that makes their product not scalable.

probably it's the user experience or the user interface it's just not attractive and i have never used it before so that says alot because to me it's just a media company, it's not that personal like facebook where i feel like i could talk to a friend it's more of like what's going with the steve harvey incident kind of stuff or some hollywood celebrity gossip news stuff.they should just focus on media live streaming and stuff like that.

they should've bought oculus rift or some other virtual reality company so they can give users real time viewing of what's happening at a particular event such as some sporting event and make users who aren't there a chance to watch it and can tweet about it in real time because they are good at that with the real time news tweet stuff.

i read an article today where facebook just launched this sporting feature where users can talk about sports in real time and i know that they are heading in the right direction because they already have a virtual reality company.hopefully though twitter get their acts together but i feel like yahoo is going to get sold before twitter because what's going on there is horrendous especially in a year like this where all those so called overvalued unicorns are going to be shaken out from the markets lol.for me linkedin is doing a great job, they understand their market and who they are targeting and put their platform in such a way that fit damn well with their audience and they might be here for a long time and what they are doing surely paid off as well.

juan917 · Jan 22, 2016

The ONLY reason why I am hesitant on shorting Twitter stock is because of the buyout potential rumors.

I don't see Google buying Twitter but Fox News might want to buy to establish themselves on a mobile platform

obrian · Jan 22, 2016

juan917 said:
The ONLY reason why I am hesitant on shorting Twitter stock is because of the buyout potential rumors.

I don't see Google buying Twitter but Fox News might want to buy to establish themselves on a mobile platform

who knows even facebook can buy it for a bargain.

juan917 · Jan 22, 2016

obrian said:
who knows even facebook can buy it for a bargain.

hahah yes that is true. Facebook has deep pockets and they don't mind spending it (See WhatsApp acquisition for 19B - comes out to $40 PER USER LOL, instagram valued at 25B).

obrian · Jan 22, 2016

juan917 said:
hahah yes that is true. Facebook has deep pockets and they don't mind spending it (See WhatsApp acquisition for 19B - comes out to $40 PER USER LOL, instagram valued at 25B).

whatsapp and instagram could've killed facebook in the long term. i don't know if snapchat is going to do that but mostly young kids i think are using it which is how facebook gets started out so lets see how that plays out. for me i feel like a company like amazon right now is just right in the hockey stick category.

Andy Black · Jan 22, 2016

Great thread.

I've shied away from social media platforms as I thought they were just a time suck. Then I realised I spend a lot of time on this forum, and it's really another social media platform, so I'm not as cr@p at "social media" as I presumed.

I don't know so much about the other platforms, but am pushing into them as of now.

I do trust Gary V, and he's BIG into Snapchat at the minute. He thinks NOW is that moment where it will go mainstream in another 12 months, so now is the time to do a landgrab and get positioned (and skilled) before it explodes.

Who am I to argue with him?

Saying that, I am going to get busy on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, YouTube, Snapchat, Periscope, maybe Instagram, Slideshare, Google+, and any others that pop up on my radar.

I'm still kinda baffled by it all.

It's very interesting reading your thoughts in this thread. I'm learning loads, so thanks.

Supa · Jan 22, 2016

Andy Black said:
Great thread.

I've shyed away from social media platforms as I thought they were just a time suck. Then I realised I spend a lot of time on this forum, and it's really another social media platform, so I'm not as cr@p at social media as I presumed.

I don't know so much about the other platforms, but am pushing into them as of now.

I do trust Gary V, and he's BIG into Snapchat at the minute. He thinks NOW is that moment where it will go mainstream in another 12 months, so now is the time to do a landgrab and get positioned (and skilled) before it explodes.

Who am I to argue with him?

Saying that, I am going to get busy on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, YouTube, Snapchat, Periscope, maybe Instagram, Slideshare, Google+, and any others that pop up on my radar.

I'm still kinda baffled by it all.

It's very interesting reading your thoughts in this thread. I'm learning loads, so thanks.

In my opinion the 2 biggest are Instagram and Snapchat, plus Facebook of course, even if it's getting more and more into mostly spam posts.

Vigilante · Jan 22, 2016

JDawg said:
Saw this the other day and thought it was interesting... Twitter still ranks #3 for total visits.

Twitter has stated in their annual reports that a significant % of their traffic is bots

Jake · Jan 22, 2016

ilrein said:
I think that Twitter fills an important need -- and we know well here, that so long as a need exists, their is a market for it.

The true value of Twitter is the ability for news to spread wildfire style. This massive communications platforms has made it very difficult for oppressive regimes to hide their actions from the world. Take a look at some of these "Twitter Revolutions".

There's too much value in a highly connected telecommunications network. 300 million active users is pretty stupendous, even if there are tons of dead accounts.

Great post.

I've never been a tweeter but whenever I heard an explosion in Kabul I would pull up twitter and a quick search would tell me exactly where the incident occured.

Theres value in the network but they may need to to change their overall strategy before a similar platform with better incentives replaces it.

Distributed, censorship resistant, global broadcasting system?

Vigilante · Jan 22, 2016

Jake said:
Great post.

I've never been a tweeter but whenever I heard an explosion in Kabul I would pull up twitter and a quick search would tell me exactly where the incident occured.

Theres value in the network but they may need to to change their overall strategy before a similar platform with better incentives replaces it.

Distributed, censorship resistant, global broadcasting system?

There's value in something that could be branded global broadcasting system

LateStarter · Jan 22, 2016

Andy Black said:
I do trust Gary V, and he's BIG into Snapchat at the minute. He thinks NOW is that moment where it will go mainstream in another 12 months, so now is the time to do a landgrab and get positioned (and skilled) before it explodes.

I like Gary too but I think you have to take his advice with a grain of salt when is comes to Snapchat. He's not as much of a business owner anymore as he is an adviser and VC investor...of which Snapchat is one he funds. So is Snapchat really going to blow up and somehow provide a platform for marketers to engage people? Or is he just trying to help one of his companies gain traction and create a self-fulfilling prophecy? I'm skeptical.

At it's core Snapchat is at best a push marketing platform which, coincidentally, is a tactic that doesn't align with Gary V's marketing philosophies. For him the platform works well to build his personal brand, distribute his thoughts and promote his key-note business. For that kind of a model there is ROI in Snapchat. For conventional products and consumer brands? I'm not so sure.

Who am I to argue with him?

Don't be so quick to discount your own opinions Andy! Gary V was a nobody at some point and discounted by many yet he kept his own views and forged his own road.

Edit: For me personally, Twitter has always been a lame-duck marketing platform. Engagements and conversions have always been much lower than Facebook. Twitter just isn't able to make ads sticky enough for real engagement with consumers. Facebook adds the element of Likes/Shares to campaigns which is peer-supported endorsements. It helps to validate your product and facilitate that buzz within a customers social circle.

IGP · Jan 22, 2016

Vigilante said:
There's value in something that could be branded global broadcasting system

That's exactly what twitter is: a news site.

It has replaced traditional news sources because it's 300MM people reporting the news. Now obviously you need to have your "channel" turned to the right station. ie. (following the people that provide news and not noise for whatever you are interested in.)

I don't use twitter, never have other than paying people to do my social for me.

But gone by 2018? Zero chance.

Delmania · Jan 22, 2016

Greyson F said:
I think what they are doing is realizing they have a lack of control. Robbin mentions this when she analyzes Twitter. Out of all of the Social Media Platforms, Twitter is the one that has the most RAW data open to any and every software ready prowl through and organize it.

Facebook has ads.

Google has military contracts.

Twitter has...Donald Trump?

*Edited due to 4 "that" inputs in two sentences

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