Kindle Unlimited... Authors in trouble?

[ChickenHawk]

A prediction: Sometime within the next few months, Amazon will announce a sliding pay scale, where payment per borrow varies by word-count and/or cover price. IMO, (the current system) can't sustain itself long-term, unless Amazon really wants to encourage a vast supply of cheap micro-books.

At the risk of sounding smug...
Hah! I called it!

 

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[Tony I]

At the risk of sounding smug...
Hah! I called it!

From what I understand, the change means that you will get paid per page.

Some authors of shorter works are freaking out, but if you have 5 20K stories, you will make the same amount as one 100K story? (as long as the reader reads the same amount of pages)

 

[ChickenHawk]

Some authors of shorter works are freaking out,

I can definitely see why authors of short works are freaking out. The previous system gave them a huge advantage. Because I'm lazy (and to save people the trouble if they're looking for it), I'm going to re-post my full prediction/explanation from earlier in the thread.

REPOST FROM EARLIER IN THIS THREAD:
_________________________________

A prediction: Sometime within the next few months, Amazon will announce a sliding pay scale, where payment per borrow varies by word-count and/or cover price. Right now, consider these two books.

• Book 1: A 100,000 full-length novel priced at $4.99 (Royalty = 70% of cover price, which is $2.49)
• Book 2: A 10,000 short story priced at $0.99. (Royalty = 35% of cover price, which is $0.34)

Right now, both of these books earn the same per borrow, once the reader reads 10% of the book. This seems unsustainable, and here's why.For Book 1, payment occurs at the 10,000-word mark. For Book 2, payment occurs at the 1,000-word mark. This puts the full-length book at a serious disadvantage. Last month, each borrow paid approximately $1.30 regardless of the word count or cover-price. This means that the author of the longer, more expensive book loses money for every borrow, while the author of the shorter, cheaper book makes out like a bandit. Consider this: The 99 cent book earns MORE per borrow than an actual sale. IMO, this can't sustain itself long-term, unless Amazonreally wants to encourage a vast supply of cheapmicro-books.

 

[jimr]

At the risk of sounding smug...
Hah! I called it!

On a side note, I would appear to have been away for quite some time.

Back now

 

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[KennyJA]

It won't matter much if your book is unknown anyway. I'd rather be on the top list of every page than worry about a 5,000 or 100,000 word book if nobody looks at it.

 

[Aimee]

At the risk of sounding smug...
Hah! I called it!

asdfghjkl dammit Amazon!
I knew they'd do this eventually but damn I didn't think it would be quite so soon...
Time to readjust...

 

[Lex DeVille]

Anyone have the link? I didn't get the email, and Google isn't cooperating.

 

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[Charnell]

Anyone have the link? I didn't get the email, and Google isn't cooperating.

https://kdp.amazon.com/help?topicId=A156OS90J7RDN

 

[Lex DeVille]

Thanks!

 

[Tony I]

The previous system gave them a huge advantage. Because I'm lazy (and to save people the trouble if they're looking for it), I'm going to re-post my full prediction/explanation from earlier in the thread.

absolutely, you were spot on.

part of leveraging such a large platform such as amazon is being victim to constant change. it's the price you pay for millions of potential readers.

While it does suck that royalties for short story authors will be decreased, they were over inflated because of the original agreement in the first place.

I think the best thing to do is put out quality work, and build the email list with the idea to sell directly to readers via an author website in the future.

I really hate having to completely change my strategy just because of one amazon email.

 

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[Member]

Page 1: "You walk into a dark room with 2 doors. To go through the door on the left go to page 200, to go through the door on the right go to page 201"

I now predict a glut of choose-your-own-adventure books...

 

[COSenior]

Page 1: "You walk into a dark room with 2 doors. To go through the door on the left go to page 200, to go through the door on the right go to page 201"

I now predict a glut of choose-your-own-adventure books...

Now there's a thought...

 

[mws87]

Page 1: "You walk into a dark room with 2 doors. To go through the door on the left go to page 200, to go through the door on the right go to page 201"

I now predict a glut of choose-your-own-adventure books...

Haha, fantastic. I wonder how long it will take Amazon to catch on.

 

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[Mattie]

At the risk of sounding smug...
Hah! I called it!

Are you referring to this they posted yesterday.
https://kdp.amazon.com/community/ann.jspa?annID=786

 

[ChickenHawk]

Are you referring to this they posted yesterday.
https://kdp.amazon.com/community/ann.jspa?annID=786

Yup! Although it wasn't me who first posted about it. It was @MTF here: https://www.thefastlaneforum.com/co...he-current-gold-rush.57713/page-3#post-466438

Lots of interesting discussion about this, that's for sure!

 

[Mattie]

Yup! Although it wasn't me who first posted about it. It was @MTF here: https://www.thefastlaneforum.com/com...he-current-gold-rush.57713/page-3#post-466438

Lots of interesting discussion about this, that's for sure!

Yes, I guess I better go back to my original plan of being a Babe Ruth! I suppose it was a good learning experience to get started. The things you learn in this business.

 

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[webcomber]

At the risk of sounding smug...
Hah! I called it!

Yeah, and I should have listened to you. I saw the top sellers were 25-30 page short reads, so I just released a similar series. I didn't sacrifice on quality, but on pages (this time around). We have to adapt to what Amazon is doing if we want to do this for our main source of income. I am getting more and more uncomfortable with putting my main source of income in the hands of Amazon. I can go wide, but the sad truth is that Amazon still controls most of the market (also a violation of Fastlane).

I would also love to hear @Held for Ransom 's take on this as so much has changed since his original post.

If any of you authors out there who rank well would offer a course on how you do it, I would certainly buy it. I have no idea to this day why some books rank higher than others. Rankings go beyond quality and "just keep writing," as the strategy seems a bit more complex now. Though books must have quality content (most of the time), there are clearly other factors involved as I have seen some books stick like glue and others very similar drop away into the sea of Amazon content never to be seen again.

Is the romance market still hot, or is it now a gold rush making it harder to separate content?

How do you reconcile the Fastlane with giving so much control to Amazon and their increasingly murky rules affecting the most vital component - compensation?

How do you separate from Amazon when they control most of the market, and the rules?

Most authors make less than minimum wage. Is this a modern gold rush where Amazon sells the shovels?

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-e...from-their-writing-survey-finds-10191009.html

 

[ChickenHawk]

"just keep writing," as the strategy seems a bit more complex now.

I agree. Honestly, I'm glad I'm not starting out now. Even though I've only been at it for a couple of years, the market has really changed. It's a lot more competitive. That being said, it's probably better now than it will be two years from now, so sooner is always better than later.

Is the romance market still hot, or is it now a gold rush making it harder to separate content?

It's hot AND competitive. But honestly, I think it will get slightly easier under these new Kindle Unlimited terms, because there will be less noise in the form of very short books and an abundance of serials. I DO think serials will remain popular, but not nearly as popular, because Amazon has removed a primary incentive for taking a full-length novel and chopping it up to get more income.

How do you reconcile the Fastlane with giving so much control to Amazon and their increasingly murky rules affecting the most vital component - compensation?

This is a really tough one. I think, though, that popularity breeds popularity. Once you've had some hits on Amazon, your opportunities elsewhere increase. For example, Amazon success could lead to traditional publishing deals or other retailers courting you. Plus, I know I keep saying this, but the mailing list is key. Even me, I haven't been doing nearly enough to build and nurture it, but I've got to make that a priority as I move forward.

I have seen some books stick like glue and others very similar drop away into the sea of Amazon content never to be seen again.

I've seen this with my own books too, and for the life of me, I can't figure it out! Quality of books aside, I'm sure there's a lot we don't know and will never know. Even traditional publishers can't predict what book will hit, and which one won't. Crazy!

 

[Mattie]

It's hot AND competitive.

Ha ha! I think this would be the erotica, and it's infested Amazon like fleas. I don't consider this Romance. I actually have a hard time finding a good romance because it's so cluttered with this aftermath of 50 shades of grey. I think the more I'm on Amazon I fall back on getting on the literary fiction band wagon to save literature. lol We're destroying it.

 

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[COSenior]

After analyzing it six ways from Sunday, these are my observations.

Short books, less than about 135 pages are going to take it, so to speak, in the shorts. This is because formerly they were getting paid at a 2015 average of $1.34 per borrow no matter the length. Now it will be, as nearly as we can figure from KDPs example formula with a little common sense applied, about a penny per page. If we're lucky. So my new serials, at KDPs current estimation of between 30 and 40 pages, would each earn less than 1/3 per borrow than formerly.

I predict that the masses of fly-by-night 'writers' who jumped in with low-quality, ultra-short books to take advantage of the situation will find something else to attempt to get rich quick. Hopefully this will reduce the noise Mattie refers to, which will leave less competition for a piece of the pie.

Meanwhile, those of us who started out with full-length novels and only went to serials in self-defense because of KU will return to longer books because we'll be paid more fairly. In fact, more fairly than at standard prices.

For example, assuming a per-page word count of 300 (about what Amazon estimates for my books), and a penny per page payout, a 75k novel similar to my full-length ones will earn $2.50 as opposed to the $2.09 net for a buy at a $2.99 price tag. The new system brings the payout closer in line with buy royalties, in other words, and returns the analysis of return for our efforts to pre-KU levels.

A 500-page fantasy or thriller, on the other hand, will be compensated at a higher rate than indie authors are encouraged to price their books by peer pressure. It's only fair. That 500 pages took twice as long to write, minimum, as did a 250-page romance.

Of course these calculations are all based on postulation. We won't really know anything until mid-August, when the real numbers come out, and it may well be three to six months before we see the real impact. In tracking the per-borrow payouts relative to the 'subsidy' KDP has announced, I've noticed something that shouldn't surprise any Fastlaner. They've manipulated the subsidy to keep the per-borrow rate where they want it. For the first three months after KU was announced, it was much higher than it's been recently. The 2014 average, which represented six months, was at $1.50. The 2015 average so far is $1.34.

In the end, everyone who is uneasy about their future being in Amazon's hands is right to be so. They'll pay us what they want to pay us (just like traditional publishers) and there's very little we can do about it, except choose a different path. If you don't love to write and tell stories, I'd encourage you to do just that. As I've said all along, self-publishing is not fastlane (at least in regard to fiction).

 

[Lex DeVille]

After analyzing it six ways from Sunday, these are my observations.

Short books, less than about 135 pages are going to take it, so to speak, in the shorts. This is because formerly they were getting paid at a 2015 average of $1.34 per borrow no matter the length. Now it will be, as nearly as we can figure from KDPs example formula with a little common sense applied, about a penny per page. If we're lucky. So my new serials, at KDPs current estimation of between 30 and 40 pages, would each earn less than 1/3 per borrow than formerly.

I predict that the masses of fly-by-night 'writers' who jumped in with low-quality, ultra-short books to take advantage of the situation will find something else to attempt to get rich quick. Hopefully this will reduce the noise Mattie refers to, which will leave less competition for a piece of the pie.

Meanwhile, those of us who started out with full-length novels and only went to serials in self-defense because of KU will return to longer books because we'll be paid more fairly. In fact, more fairly than at standard prices.

For example, assuming a per-page word count of 300 (about what Amazon estimates for my books), and a penny per page payout, a 75k novel similar to my full-length ones will earn $2.50 as opposed to the $2.09 net for a buy at a $2.99 price tag. The new system brings the payout closer in line with buy royalties, in other words, and returns the analysis of return for our efforts to pre-KU levels.

A 500-page fantasy or thriller, on the other hand, will be compensated at a higher rate than indie authors are encouraged to price their books by peer pressure. It's only fair. That 500 pages took twice as long to write, minimum, as did a 250-page romance.

Of course these calculations are all based on postulation. We won't really know anything until mid-August, when the real numbers come out, and it may well be three to six months before we see the real impact. In tracking the per-borrow payouts relative to the 'subsidy' KDP has announced, I've noticed something that shouldn't surprise any Fastlaner. They've manipulated the subsidy to keep the per-borrow rate where they want it. For the first three months after KU was announced, it was much higher than it's been recently. The 2014 average, which represented six months, was at $1.50. The 2015 average so far is $1.34.

In the end, everyone who is uneasy about their future being in Amazon's hands is right to be so. They'll pay us what they want to pay us (just like traditional publishers) and there's very little we can do about it, except choose a different path. If you don't love to write and tell stories, I'd encourage you to do just that. As I've said all along, self-publishing is not fastlane (at least in regard to fiction).

I'd love to see more benefit for novel writers, despite never having written one. I'd also love to see the Zon do some kind of mass sweep and get rid of super low-quality trash short stories. Then the marketplace would really improve.

 

[webcomber]

For example, assuming a per-page word count of 300 (about what Amazon estimates for my books), and a penny per page payout, a 75k novel similar to my full-length ones will earn $2.50 as opposed to the $2.09 net for a buy at a $2.99 price tag. The new system brings the payout closer in line with buy royalties, in other words, and returns the analysis of return for our efforts to pre-KU levels.).

I don't think there is any way that is going to happen. The reason is that Amazon has the analytics for completion rates of a book, and many readers "abandon" the book for whatever reason. One of the authors shared her metrics because Kobo said it was one of the most finished books/series they had. If Kobo has these stats you can bet Amazon has it, and they will use these stats to lower pay. These were some of their best performing books!

With a very optimistic completion rate you will make around $1.95 per book.

Notice how the standards have been lowered from making $20,000 - $100,000 a month on the forum a couple of years ago to hopefully replacing a full time income, to maybe making enough to live, to there are places in the world you can live for $1,000-$2,000 a month writing full-time.

Other authors have chimed in on other boards and wonder at the entire notion. "It amazes me that people think you can make a great living writing books."

There seems to be a lowering of the bar happening with the pay reductions, and a subtle adaptation occurring in the conversation after the Kindle/self-pub excitement settles.

I have also noticed another trend. Before I read about how well fiction was doing I had been writing non-fiction. I started writing fiction and very much enjoyed it, and each of those books began to outsell the nonfiction books.

Since KU, the trend has reversed and the nonfiction book outsells all the fiction combined by a ratio of 3:1. KU affects fiction a lot more than nonfiction. The nonfiction is also priced at $8.99 (and not in KU), something you cannot do with fiction very often, so Amazon tinkering has had very little effect on it. I am sure that must be true with others who have written nonfiction.

I've spent a lot of time writing fiction as well, but the books drop away much faster and the pay was reduced more drastically.

I have to revisit fiction vs. nonfiction. But for either, there is a probably a lot more money to be made with a "job," and a fastlane track should be different.

As I've said all along, self-publishing is not fastlane (at least in regard to fiction).

Exactly, and it should be made clearer to prospective writers. As others have mentioned, even high ranking books make surprisingly little.

 

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[Draven Grey]

I can definitely see how publishing to Amazon alone is not Fastlane (perhaps just selling books alone across self-publishers). Thankfully, there are many more ways to monetize those same stories than just releasing written word. I'm actually grateful for the challenge, and have already started collaborating with others on podcasts, film, games, and even live shows, to name a few. I don't think it's a doomsday for authors wanting to become wealthy off their stories. Rather, I think it's raising the bar for authors to have to find more ways to add a lot of value.

 

[COSenior]

Absolutely, finding other ways to make the same material pay is a good start. Collaborating with others is an even better idea. However, until the little guy finds a way to do as some of the bigger guys have (James Patterson, for example) and duplicate themselves, it still won't be fastlane. Anytime your accumulation of wealth depends on your sole efforts in an industry where time = production, you come up hard against the 24-hours-a-day limit. Very few of the threads I used to follow here where people started out hiring cheap ghostwriters to attempt to scale this are still active. The reason was the product was of low quality. We could debate it to death, but I won't, because as it is MY time = MY production, and every word I type here is one less I type into my stories.

Cheers.

 

[webcomber]

Absolutely, finding other ways to make the same material pay is a good start. Collaborating with others is an even better idea. However, until the little guy finds a way to do as some of the bigger guys have (James Patterson, for example) and duplicate themselves, it still won't be fastlane. Anytime your accumulation of wealth depends on your sole efforts in an industry where time = production, you come up hard against the 24-hours-a-day limit. Very few of the threads I used to follow here where people started out hiring cheap ghostwriters to attempt to scale this are still active. The reason was the product was of low quality. We could debate it to death, but I won't, because as it is MY time = MY production, and every word I type here is one less I type into my stories.

Cheers.

I actually think that my calculations were wrong above. It would be $2.50 (assuming Amz even pays $0.01 a page) x .645 x .786 = $1.27 per book for an extremely well performing book. It is probably along the lines of less than a dollar for other books. That is why Amazon would love to pay per page.

I have enjoyed writing fiction and am debating going back to non-fiction to take books out of this system. I will probably end up writing both. Amazon has not been able to separate the lower level ghostwriting from the authors writing for a living very well, and this is another barrier for ghostwriters in nonfiction if their competition are experts at some level.

Others have pointed to books with very high rankings and low quality in fiction that continue to mystify me, so I am surprised many publishers hiring ghostwriters are no longer active. It could be they are also abandoning a system that is not offering more ROI. (I realize many publishers are treating this strictly as a FL business and hire and test only quality ghostwriters to leverage their time in the business).

Either way you and Chickenhawk and others have been a great inspiration. If anyone deserves success for their work ethic and contributions to others it is you.

 

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[COSenior]

Either way you and Chickenhawk and others have been a great inspiration. If anyone deserves success for their work ethic and contributions to others it is you.

Thank you.

 

[Mattie]

Amazon has not been able to separate the lower level ghostwriting from the authors writing for a living very well, and this is another barrier for ghostwriters in nonfiction if their competition are experts at some level.

This is a good point. I think you have people chasing the money and giving crap advice in non-fiction, and even though I still need to improve my writing, and strategy, I can tell you, people do know the difference, when you're an authority or not.

Chasing money is great, but I don't think it will last in the big picture. A reviewer complimented me yesterday because they're used to reading all those other books, and saw the difference, and although I'm not leaning towards psychologists and social workers, have them compliment me on my books. So I think it is important to know your niche and what they're truly looking for. I think that goes beyond statistics, numbers, and just looking at trends. I suppose maybe I'm different, I look at everything, and how things aren't working, what people say is working or not working, and while it's not always pleasant going in forums, I see where the problems lie.

Most kindle books that tell you how to do Amazon, say the basics, trends, statistics, and research. This means go find some facts, read a few things, and write your paper. lol This academic writing and doesn't solve problems. It's gathering facts. Regurgitating.

Authorities usually are the front lines, have experience, knowledge, and do research, and engage with populations. You need to use both methods, not just one. And it shows when you do.

 

[Selfy]

If chickenhawk prediction happens, then I'm thankful I dumped the "dreks-production model" (ie. outsourcing) for actually developing the writing skill and writing these stories myself.

 

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[Mattie]

developing the writing skill and writing these stories myself.

This may be fail proof. If you know how to do it yourself and hone your writing skills, you don't need to depend on someone else to produce for you.

 

[mws87]

If chickenhawk prediction happens, then I'm thankful I dumped the "dreks-production model" (ie. outsourcing) for actually developing the writing skill and writing these stories myself.

Same here. When I first started reading all these things about exploding on KDP I was kind of left with that "are you shittin' me?" thought. Don't get me wrong - there are definitely great ghost writers out there and they can come in handy - but, most of the KDP publishers who are outsourcing seem to be going with the quantity over quality rule. Yes, like mentioned - it's money chasing.

Now, the way I interpreted Amazon's recent changes: You'd better start writing some quality stuff to keep people hooked. Value beats Money Chasing any day in the long run. When people start to catch on and leave 1-2 star reviews for all of your outsourced books filled with info the writer just pulled from Google, you're going to have to find something else. Why not just focus on writing great stuff that will continue to provide value to readers?

Honestly, I feel it way more satisfying having created something myself. I enjoy the process. Not to mention, you learn from it. You'll start to develop your flow with it and you'll be able to create better more often and more efficiently.

Just my opinion.