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The Active Forex Traders Discussion

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CarrieW

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I hope it doesn't go higher than 1.16 tho lol. I can withstand a bit more tho as long as it comes back! I hope it don't go much more lol
 
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mt_myke

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I hope it doesn't go higher than 1.16 tho lol. I can withstand a bit more tho as long as it comes back! I hope it don't go much more lol

I'd be surprised if it doesn't go above 1.16 again, whether it goes down or up after that. The exit on my trade last week was the midpoint of the drop from 1.16 down to 1.12, it tested that then consolidated and broke thru with a strong bull move today. 1.16 is the next resistance area and it seems likely to visit there again. 1.2 is the real test of wills.
 

loop101

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I had a limit sell order for 1.1256 on the EUR/USD, which I cancelled when the price jumped up to 1.1440. I'm not trading any pairs using the EUR or USD on Wednesday, because according the FXStreet's Economic Calendar, they both have big news events tomorrow (3 red !'s). I have a limit sell on AUD/JPY for Wednesday.
 

mt_myke

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I hope it doesn't go higher than 1.16 tho lol. I can withstand a bit more tho as long as it comes back! I hope it don't go much more lol

I'll take the ride down town with you...what will happen??

eurusd-m15-forex-capital-markets-2.png
 
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loop101

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I made a few simple worksheets to help stay organized. The first one is the "weekly overview". It has a table of each country and each day of the week. I go to FXStreet's Economic Calendar, and look for 3 red !'s that denote a major news event. Each news event shows the country and day of week it happens on. For example, according to FXStreet, on Thursday the Bank of England is making some big announcement. In the table, I put an "x" in the box for the X-Y pair of GBP-Thursday. Like this:

Country: MON TUE WED THR FRI
AUD
CAD
GBP X (<-- this X is supposed to be in the THR column)


Below that table, I have another table that lists the actual pairs and the days. On that table, I X-out any pairs that contain the news-affected countries, like this:

Pair: MON TUE WED THR FRI
AUD/CAD
GBP/AUD X (<-- this X is supposed to be in the THR column)
GBP/CAD X (<-- this X is supposed to be in the THR column)


So using the above example, I would not trade GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD on Thursday because of the GBP news on that day. If you join FXStreet, you can change the timezone on their calendar to make it easier to use. My "trading day" goes from 7pm to 7pm, mostly because I have an EOD forex data source that uses an EOD of 6pm, which gives me 1 hour to place my orders.

Unless you are trading the news, you might want to use a system such as the one I outlined above. You can "strike off" a lot of currencies very quickly, so you only have to look at a few each day. More importantly it helps you to, as RoboCop would say, "Stay out of trouble."

Since both the EUR and USD have big announcements today, I am effectively out of the market. The smaller currencies I was looking (AUD/JPY) moved away from my limit orders, so I closed them.

http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar
 

CarrieW

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I'm looking at 1.10 then 1.08 ;)
 
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loop101

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I cancelled my limit sell on AUD/JPY when it went too far up. "Too far" is a value related to the daily range, that is defined in the Advanced 3 Ducks system. Had I stayed in, the trade would have been entered at 9am, then stopped out on a 3:30pm whipsaw.

Thursday there is a GBP interest rate announcement, so no pairs using GBP.

That left me with two candidates for tommorow. A limit sell on AUD/USD at .7729, and a limit buy on USD/CAD at 1.2594.

I reduced the number of pairs I was trading from my list of 28, down to the Advanced system's 8 pairs. I think I will stick with the official pairs during my first month of trading the system.

Friday is a Non-Farm Payroll announcement, so I will not trade the USD. Friday is a half-day anyway, so I will probably just skip it.

Glad to see the EUR/USD pair went everyone's way. I'm staying out of it for now, the chart from Jan 22 to Feb 4 is basically flat, so I will wait for a more defined trend to start (or resume).

Update:

Both AUD/USD and USD/CAD moved too far away from their limit orders, so I cancelled them. These intraday cancellations might not be in agreement with the 3 Ducks system, but it saved me from a least one whipsaw so far. Since I'm not trading tomorrow, I'm done for the week.
 
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loop101

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In 30 minutes, all the news hits the fan. EUR/USD should become active again. I'm not expecting to trade again until Tuesday.
 

loop101

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I'm still testing the "3 Ducks" system, which is an intraday trend-continuation system, my results are still flat. Since this system avoids all news events, and there always news events, I decided to look for another system that only traded news events. Below is the YT channel for "Janna FX" who recently turned $1k in to $11k in 3 months, just trading news events.

I am hoping to integrate these two systems, so I can look for trends on newsless days, and look for breakouts on newsful days.

 
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loop101

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Last week, I set a Sell Limit betting AUD/JPY would go down, and it did. I had a Stop Loss 20 pips above my Sell Limit.

The price moved down quickly, triggering the Sell Limit which entered me in to the trade, *and* triggered the Stop Loss, causing me to instantly exit at my maximum loss. That was irritating.
 
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Alfa555

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Recently I am getting into trading as well. Can someone experienced tell me where is the best place to start, right now I am reading babypips.com and I am thinking for becoming elitetradersorganization.com member if I can.

So what you think is the best way to learn trading?
 

willymo

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Recently I am getting into trading as well. Can someone experienced tell me where is the best place to start, right now I am reading babypips.com and I am thinking for becoming elitetradersorganization.com member if I can.

So what you think is the best way to learn trading?
Babypips school of pipsology is a great start.
Learn Money Management (% of risk per trade)
Open Demo Account and focus on 1 or 2 pairs
Find your directional bias on your higher timeframe charts (4hr thru Monthly)
Find a system which fits the type of trader you choose to become (position, swing, intraday, or scalper)
Demo trade to see if the system is profitable for you (Just because others are profitable with a system, doesn't mean you will be profitable)
 
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CarrieW

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Gah. This is taking forever! Lol I hate getting stuck in trades.
 

P3HSB

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Gah. This is taking forever! Lol I hate getting stuck in trades.

@CarrieW Still in the EUR/USD short trade?

I recently went short on GBP/USD and now I am bleeding cash (-207 pips). I think I jumped in too early. Can anyone share your analysis for GBP/USD?
 
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CarrieW

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Yes ;) and a aud/USD too just to make sure I sweat it out lol.
 
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CarrieW

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Going down.... And hopefully they keep going down... Finally. It goes up slowly over weeks. Then drops like a rock. That's why I feel its still got a lot of downward momentum...
 

mt_myke

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It goes up slowly over weeks. Then drops like a rock. That's why I feel its still got a lot of downward momentum...

Yup, but you might die of boredom waiting, or worse, get scared into closing or even reversing shorts...
 

CarrieW

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Die of boredom yes lol. I will margin call before I close it lol
 
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P3HSB

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Going down.... And hopefully they keep going down... Finally. It goes up slowly over weeks. Then drops like a rock. That's why I feel its still got a lot of downward momentum...

Just saw your message today. Unfortunately, I was panicking yesterday as I was down -207 pips, and I ended up closing out. What a disaster. Then a day later which is today (2/26/2015), I looked at the GBP/USD charts and it dropped like a rock, smh.

I got too emotional and started looking at the lower time frames.

Plus I kept adding on to a losing position which made me worry even more.

Then after the lost, I started revenge trading this morning and it got even worse.

I got to take a break from this and get away for awhile to reset and start all over. :(

Don't make the same mistake as me and stay strong folks!
 
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Zachariah Lange

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I just started reading about Forex trading after reading a large portion of this thread yesterday. Is it weird that I find it easier to sort through the thousands of different stocks and find a winner? So far all I have read on Forex trading along with the tools on my practice account I still have zero idea of what I am doing!! It sure seems like fun though, so I am going to keep reading up.

On a brighter note I sold my first stock yesterday after holding it for 3 months for a 10% return. I then reinvested those earnings in two more stocks the same day. I already sold one today for another 10% return, and the other has me in the green already with plenty of room to grow. I have been doing small-mid cap stocks, I have one long term investment that pays good dividends and the rest of my investment is being used on higher risk quick gainers so I can keep it growing. My plan is to eventually buy more long term Large-cap stocks when I have a good war chest built up.
 

mt_myke

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Is it weird that I find it easier to sort through the thousands of different stocks and find a winner?

There are less than a dozen major currencies, and they are all heavily traded. Even relatively large companies (US nationwide) are often thinly traded. Years ago I bought $1000 of LEE (a newspaper conglomerate) when it was under a dollar. That tiny order got split into 4 sub-orders to execute. This is a stock held (or was still, at the time) by most major institutional investors. Stock picking in companies with low market caps is one of the few places where the little guy may have an edge. They're untradeable by professionals and often severely mispriced.
 
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loop101

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Recently I am getting into trading as well. Can someone experienced tell me where is the best place to start, right now I am reading babypips.com and I am thinking for becoming elitetradersorganization.com member if I can.

So what you think is the best way to learn trading?

I would say do this:
- read about the different approaches on babypips
- trade a demo account with the broker you choose, so you can learn the mechanics of the trades
- trade micro-transactions with real money (trade $1 at first), as soon as you grasp the basic mechanics
- increase the amount of money you are trading as you get experience
- never enter a trade without knowing exactly how much you are willing to lose
- always remember you are making educated guesses, and that nobody knows where the market is going
- have a monthly or annual maximum loss that will cause you to stop trading if you reach it
- use the least leverage (something like 90% of people who trade with more than 20:1 lose all their money)
- know that most people who claim to be successful forex traders are lying
- only trade the EUR/USD until you can do it profitably, then look at other pairs
 

CarrieW

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One trade in profit EUR/USD. One still not Aud/USD. I will start banking soon. Probably tonight's session
 
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CarrieW

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You guys think it's easier to pick stocks? I am kicking around opening a demo stock account or something. Anyone trade the nfp today? I am still neg is my aud/USD trade and I'm quite surprised actually. Banked 2x on the EUR/USD. Looking for one more and I will try to be out if that by end of trading today.
 

loop101

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You guys think it's easier to pick stocks? I am kicking around opening a demo stock account or something. Anyone trade the nfp today? I am still neg is my aud/USD trade and I'm quite surprised actually. Banked 2x on the EUR/USD. Looking for one more and I will try to be out if that by end of trading today.

To trade Forex profitably, I am having to trade infrequently, with very small amounts, and using very little leverage. I probably could do better trading stocks. There is more variety in stocks, so there is more opportunity. A friend of mine ran a fund, and currencies were part of it. He only traded the USD because he found all the major "pairs" were just reflections of what the USD was doing. All of Forex was just one "commodity" in his portfolio.

With stocks, you can use the beta value to diversify. The beta is a correlation coefficient of how much the stock moves in sync with market itself. A 1.0 means the stock moves with it exactly, a -1.0 means it moves opposite. A 0 means it is neutral. You can combine +1/-1 stocks, or use 0 beta stocks, and build a portfolio that is more diversified than the market average. This will allow you to make non-correlated bets, which will allow you to have a smoother return. You don't want to buy a bunch of stocks that mostly follow the market average, because then you are effectively making one bet. If you want to buy the market average, there are ETF's that do that.

If you want to trade stocks/ETFs, I would suggest reading these two books (they are very simple to read):

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B007RSLN7M/?tag=tff-amazonparser-20

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B008G0YCX2/?tag=tff-amazonparser-20

These books have very simple systems that you can tweak to fit your own needs. There are websites that track how they have done since 2008. The biggest problem I have with them, is that to get the most out of most of the methods, you need to be able trade 15 minutes before the end of day - meaning you have to be able "day trade". The purpose of this is to get a jump on the people opening the trades the next day. Trading the end-of-day price gives you a significant advantage over people who have to wait until the next day. The end-of-day method requires you pre-compute some "trigger values", that will cause you to take a trade at the end of the day. If these "trigger values" are exceeded, it will mean the next days indicator will have surpassed an important value. For example, if you buy Sears stock when it goes over the 200 SMA, you need to know what value today will cause it to be over the 200 SMA tomorrow. If it closes today above that trigger-value, you enter at the end of the day. Tomorrow, other traders will see it crossed the 200SMA and buy it, but you are already in it. So you get a boost for being in early.
 
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D

Deleted21961

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System I am using: Oanda shows ratios of long/short positions and updates every 15 minutes. I look at three pairs, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. When there is a ratio of 30-35 / 70-65, I play against it, i.e. when 70% of positions is long, I play short.
I look at the news to see when not to trade. Had something like 90/10 profit/loss in 2014 playing that way. Oh, and I use low leverage.
 

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