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Ebola in the USA... Anyone Concerned?

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DeletedUser394

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Here's a good reddit comment;

'Here is what I posted in response to someone worried that they had ridden that subway at that time. I am a scientist with a Biomedical Engineering degree and a morbid fascination with ebola. While I'm not an ebola expert, I've been following it since June and am up to date on the current ebola literature. My lab is located in Atlanta and the lead researcher who I see everyday was hired by the CDC in August for Ebola research so I have a a behind the scenes view of that as well. I feel confident in saying I understand Ebola almost as well as anyone else who does not work at the CDC or specializes in epidemiology.

Keep in mind there are multiple confirmed instances of patients in even later stages of this disease traveling on public transportation and having absolutely no transmission occur. Case in point Patrick Sawyer:

On 20 July 2014, Sawyer flew via ASKY Airlines from James Spriggs Payne Airport in Monrovia, Liberia to Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Nigeria's former capital Lagos, with a stopover at Lomé in Togo. He was subsequently described as having appeared to be "terribly ill" when he left Monrovia.He collapsed upon arriving at Lagos Murtala Muhammed International Airport.

He was in such a late stage he collapsed directly after getting out of a confined area with tens or hundreds of people in close proximity to him for hours including a layover. No transmission occurred on that plane.

Here is a CDC breakdown of the 1995 Congo outbreak reinforcing my point:

During an Ebola outbreak in 1995 in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 28 (16%) of the 173 household contacts of 27 primary Ebola cases developed EVD. All 28 secondary cases involved direct physical contact with a known EVD patient; overall, 28 of 95 family members who had direct contact with a primary case became infected, whereas none of 78 family members who did not report direct contact became infected. Other studies have reported similar findings, in that all or the large majority of secondary transmissions involved direct physical contact with known EVD patients. Several investigations have also demonstrated that persons residing in confined, shared spaces (e.g., homes), but who had no direct physical contact with these cases did not develop EVD.

One last example, not a single one of Thomas Eric Duncan's family members contracted Ebola. This is 8 people who were living in a small apartment with him for at least 4 days while he was symptomatic. I would not worry if I were you, you will be fine. There is a 99.9999% chance, if not higher that there is no chance of anything coming of this. Even if you did happen to ride in the EXACT same spot as this doctor right after he got off or sat right next him.

Edit to include my sources: http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/human-transmission.html'​
 
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Bananas

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While it's easy to get sucked up into the fear of this, can we PLEASE not do what happened last week with Amber Vinson? OMG all the people on those flights and in Cleveland.... and has even 1 person shown symptoms yet? Meanwhile Amber is now Ebola-free.

Chances are he only had direct contact with a few people. Do we need to go over direct contact again? Sharing the same bowling shoes with someone is NOT direct contact. Riding on the same Subway train as someone is NOT direct contact. Having sex with his girlfriend, which he probably did after all that time in Africa, IS direct contact. And she is being closely monitored.

While I agree this doctor should have gotten himself checked out earlier, let's not do what the rest of the internet is doing and rip into this guy. I've literally seen people on Reddit/YouTube/news sites saying shit like "I hope this F*cker lives so we can throw him in jail" or "This guy deserves to die for bringing Ebola here". SERIOUSLY? This is a guy who has the balls to volunteer and go face-to-face with this virus in Africa, dealing with people at their most contagious. We should be wishing him a recovery not condemning him for getting infected.

Whatever crappy comments you read on Reddit/YouTube or other news sites, should not be attributed to my post which neither says nor implies anything like what you are stating that it does. Take your indignation over to where it belongs, please, because it certainly doesn't belong to me.
 
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DeletedUser394

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Yeah I can't believe some of the comments I'm reading. Pretty disgusting.

This doctor goes over there to selflessly save people's lives, and people have nothing but vitriol towards him.

He could have been more prudent when back, but he did plenty right.

Hope he pulls through. Odds are he will. That '70% death rate' has thus far not applied to the Western World with top tier medical care.
 

SBS.95

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Whatever crappy comments you read on Reddit/YouTube or other news sites, should not be attributed to my post which neither says nor implies anything like what you are stating that it does. Take your indignation over to where it belongs, please, because it certainly doesn't belong to me.

I wasn't trying to attribute those comments to your post, sorry. I was actually going to delete the [QUOTE ] thing at the top because I realized my post wasn't really a direct response to yours, which is ultimately what I should have done. It's out now.

You're right though, I'm definitely pissed off on how quickly everyone has turned on this doctor. Literally everywhere I read on this new NYC case it's a cesspool of hate. I sure as hell know I wouldn't have the balls to go over to Africa like this guy (and as a volunteer no less.)

I really should just get a plugin to stop myself from reading these comments. I recognize that they're all morons, but at the same time I'm interested in knowing what the general population is thinking. :/
 
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SBS.95

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I stand by this 100%

I'm not sold on us having this wrapped up by Thanksgiving. Until the virus burns itself out there will still be people running around scared just like with H1N1 or whatever other story the news is getting paid to scare people about. It'll still be a story come Thanksgiving. My hope is by that Thanksgiving more people are aware of the facts, which seems to be the direction we're going now.

The thing about Ebola is that it spreads exponentially. Globally, the current outbreak begin in December 2013 with just one person. With anything exponential, the beginning seems nearly insignificant. One person infects two, two people infect four, four people infect eight, etc.

But Ebola isn't spreading exponentially. The R0 is between 1-2 last I heard. That's not a virus that spreads exponentially. Also our current R0 on this outbreak is calculated from Africa. We don't even have enough data to calculate one for the US, but I'll put money on it being lower.

Everyone keeps saying "It just takes 1 person, then 2, etc." but if that were true, everyone would get every virus ever. The math may work out in the beginning, but eventually, Ebola or otherwise, there simply aren't enough nearby hosts to infect and the virus burns itself out. Which is what happened every other time Ebola was seen in Africa in the past 30+ years.
 

ChickenHawk

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I think there's a common misconception that people who are "concerned about ebola," are panicking. I'm not panicking about Ebola any more than I panic when I hear there's a chance that conditions are possible for severe weather. Mostly, I keep my eye on things and try to have some extra supplies on-hand just in case.

In the unlikely event that something bad does happen, this means I won't be running amok, adding to the chaos. It's kind of like fire insurance. No one thinks their house will burn down, but we all have fire insurance, because there's a slim chance it could happen.

Many people believe there's a zero chance of Ebola seriously impacting the U.S. Obviously, I'm not among those people. I believe there IS a chance of some serious impacts. How big a chance? Eh, I don't know. Maybe slim. But as of right now, there's still an awful lot we don't know. On one hand, our health care is better than Ebola-striken countries. On the other hand, our society is more mobile. Until more time passes and we get through a few more incubation cycles, I'm going to reserve judgment and continue to keep an eye on things just in case.
 

Bananas

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Article title: Hazmat team empties Ebola doctor's apartment without gloves, face masks, or any protective gear.

Link: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...es-face-masks-protective-gear.html#ixzz3H86eZ
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...es-face-masks-protective-gear.html#ixzz3H86eZ
Pics or it didn't happen:

1414199455199_wps_5_Workers_from_BioRecoveryC.jpg


Plenty more pictures on the article - apparently we didn't learn anything in Dallas.
 
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Visionquest

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WOW this is a long thread about something none of us can do anything about. Im more worried about dying in a motorcycle accident. At least that I have a fighting chance to control if I think about it. This NO WAY not a thing you can do, except for what MJ said wash your hands
 
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DeletedUser394

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Plenty more pictures on the article - apparently we didn't learn anything in Dallas.

DailyMail is a trash celebrity tabloid, and a laughing stock in the UK.

As for facts: 'Ten crew members were dispatched to Spencer’s home on Oct. 23, arriving around noon, according to City Councilman Mark Levine. Each member was dressed in an enclosed suit with an oxygen tank attached that was “sealed from head-to-toe,” said Rob Walters, a technician at Bio-Recovery.'

Look at the largest picture half way down the article: 'A Bio Recovery Corporation worker carries bio-hazard suits into the apartment of Dr. Craig Spencer on Friday.'

You can also see the oxygen tanks going in.

http://www.nydailynews.com/life-sty...bola-infected-craig-spencer-article-1.1986129
 
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Guest3722A

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Want 'em or not, here's my thoughts: Every kind and gentle person involved with helping the "cause" needs to register to a central list and their whereabouts should be self-recorded somehow systematically. Ebola has the potential to be lethal to innocent civilians, therefore, those who go and fight it carry a risk of contagion and need to ensure that they don't bring it home. So an extra step needs to be in place. The internet should help. Its the responsible thing to do.

Next, entrance into the country should be requested as obviously these kind and gentles (with frontline knowledge) shouldn't want to put their friends and families at risk, (right?) and if one takes on the responsibility of helping the cause, then they should very well have additional steps in place to further protect against the possibility of bringing it home.
 
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D

DeletedUser394

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My thoughts from yesterday...

The two nurses sure did get cured quickly.
They really let the president hug someone that just got over Ebola. Really?

I'm skeptical. Something just doesn't smell right.

Average person gets over it in something like 8-10 days. (The guy in Senegal was cured after 6 days I believe).

When the patient no longer has ebola in their blood stream there is no risk whatsoever... unless it's a guy and we're talking sex, even then the risk is low.

Hugging the President was an important statement to allay the irrational fear that many in the public have of ebola.
 

jon.a

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Average person gets over it in something like 8-10 days. (The guy in Senegal was cured after 6 days I believe).

When the patient no longer has ebola in their blood stream there is no risk whatsoever... unless it's a guy and we're talking sex, even then the risk is low.

Hugging the President was an important statement to allay the irrational fear that many in the public have of ebola.

Could be. I'm just used to being lied to.
 
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Thriftypreneur

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I've caught a cold, and I can't help but think that I need to quarantine myself because I know it just has to be the Ebola!

Thanks a lot y'all. :p
 
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DeletedUser394

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I had an ebola nightmare last night.. seriously!!

In the dream, I was staying with some family, and for whatever reason the father of that family was under suspicion of having ebola, so the entire family (and me) were forced quarantined in the house.

In the dream, I woke up to find the entire family wearing oxygen masks in their sleep and I freaked the F*ck out man! I escaped from the house and my last memory was me running down an empty street after having just escaped hahahaha.
 

Emanuel

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The air is great in Minnesota. In another month or so, it will be so F*cking cold that the viruses can't survive. They freeze. Same reason we have no snakes, spiders, or Arizonans.
Viruses survive and spread much better under cold conditions (reason why people get sick in the winter) so Arizonans, snakes and spiders might be on to something :)
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Kinda quiet... are we out of the woods? The true test, IMO, is post election news, or lack of news.
 
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DeletedUser394

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No news?

Spanish nurse aid was cleared and freed. During her holiday while in the early stages of the disease, she never spread it to anyone.

The little girl in Mali never spread it to anyone. Not sure if she died or not, I think she did.

The Ugandan doctor being treated in Germany has made a full recovery in the past few days.

Everyone that had contact with Amber Vinson has passed the incubation period, including everyone on those flights.

That latest doc in NYC is nearly out of the woods. In fact, he's been playing his favorite Banjo for the past few days to pass the time. He's bored more than anything.

Still, no Americans or anyone treated in America has died of it. (again, other than Duncan who was sent home). His family members are in the clear.

It's funny how good news is an indicator of imminent bad news, and no news means there's a conspiracy.

Liberian infection rates are declining steadily, however it's still largely out of control in West Africa, but the fact is, most people simply don't care about helping them and are more concerned with shaming those healthcare workers who come back. Which is sad.
 

Bananas

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Kinda quiet... are we out of the woods? The true test, IMO, is post election news, or lack of news.

It is quiet because our new Ebola Czar has asked the media to stop reporting suspected cases and only report if a person turns up positive. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing. For a few days there, there were multiple articles each day detailing different people in different states who 'might' have Ebola.

There have been no new cases which we know of, but an increase in people being monitored. In NY, the current number is over 300. Source NBC New York:

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loca...raig-Spencer-bellevue-hospital-281671121.html

The CDC is stockpiling protective gear. Source Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/07/us-health-ebola-usa-gear-idUSKBN0IR1UQ20141107

If the government thinks buying protective gear is necessary, well, that should be a big clue for us all.
 
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D

DeletedUser394

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ChickenHawk

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bumped. just for entertainment value. ohh no the sky is falling - NOT! @Bananas @Vigilante @ChickenHawk
Ha ha. I don't recall any of us predicting that the sky was falling, but rather indicating that we were watching and concerned. Personally though, I'd be thrilled if this comes to nothing. The sad thing is, as long as there's still an outbreak in West Africa, and as long as we're allowing flights from the hotzone, we can't quite do an Ebola victory dance just yet.

I'm still watching and concerned, and STILL living my life and working on my fastlane stuff, just like I was a few weeks ago.

...Now,I'm just doing it in a Bio4 HazMat suit. Not.
 
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DeletedUser394

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To be fair, it's been argued by MSF, UNICEF, and other aid organizations that a moratorium on flights to and from the region would do nothing but hinder their ability to fight the disease and that there's no proof that it would stop or lower the transmission overseas at all.

At least with direct flights these people can be tracked. Otherwise they're going to find other ways to come in.

Also Mali seems to be losing control. They have even shittier healthcare than the other 3 so that's no surprise, but most people aren't talking about it because it's Africa.
 

C.S. Abbink

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The company where I have my day to day job begun to build the vaccine production plant. It's basically being build in an unused part of our facility. I hope I can help produce the vaccines, would be interesting. As I only have experience in producing (purifying) antibodies.
 
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DeletedUser394

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http://www.economist.com/news/middl...y-struggle-against-virus-being-won-exorcising

As always, the alarmist WHO and news media are proven wrong again.

Not only are there not 'millions' of infected as predicted, but the number never surpassed 20,000 and Guinea and Liberia are on the cusp of stamping it out completely.

Sierra Leone is a shittier place than those two other shitty places, but even they are now managing to meet that important 70% threshold.

Congrats everyone. We survived sars, bird flu, swine flu, ebola, etc. We're pros.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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We survived sars, bird flu, swine flu, ebola, etc

Your faith in bureaucrats astounds me. Nonetheless, this is one instance when I'm absolutely enthralled at being wrong, as of now, it looks I was.
 
D

DeletedUser394

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Your faith in bureaucrats astounds me. Nonetheless, this is one instance when I'm absolutely enthralled at being wrong, as of now, it looks I was.

It's actually the opposite. I find most people in government to be completely inept. Most people in general as well.

My issue here was that certain 'interests' are consistently blowing things completely out of proportion and cherry picking stats to alarm people.

We keep making it through these things, not because we (humanity?) are the greatest at everything, but because we (humanity) are the greatest at distorting to truth to such a degree that the facts often get muddled and lead to hysteria.

I'm a hard core libertarian.. but here's not the place to discuss it haha.
 

SBS.95

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It's actually the opposite. I find most people in government to be completely inept. Most people in general as well.

My issue here was that certain 'interests' are consistently blowing things completely out of proportion and cherry picking stats to alarm people.

We keep making it through these things, not because we (humanity?) are the greatest at everything, but because we (humanity) are the greatest at distorting to truth to such a degree that the facts often get muddled and lead to hysteria.

I'm a hard core libertarian.. but here's not the place to discuss it haha.

This.

The reason I wasn't worried months ago wasn't because I think the government is competent in handling large-scale operations (quite the opposite.)

I just never thought this was something for Americans (or people in other 1st-world countries) to be legitimately scared over. Seemed like another classic case where the media hypes everything up for ratings. Tons of "experts" claiming a million infected by Christmas, shit like that. And magically, once the Ebola thing got old, and stories like November elections rolled around, you stopped hearing coverage of this "pandemic".

When did the news stop being about just the news? That feels like the biggest takeaway here.
 
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smarty

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I'm still waiting for the ebola to arrive.
It must be real because it was on the news, omg!
 

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